Recently, the SCPR did a blog on Democratic candidate Amanda Trump who is running against Republican Kirk Schuring in Ohio's (also Stark County) newly constituted 48th Ohio House District.
Formerly, the 51st Ohio House District (represented alternatively by Republicans Scott Oelslager and Kirk Schuring, the 48th going back to the 1980s), the 48th takes in Jackson Township, a good part of Perry, North Canton and a small part of Plain.
However, The Report did not include the candidate of Libertarian John Deagan in the blog. Of course, the question becomes: why not?
The answer to the "why didn't you include Libertarian John Deagan" in your primarily Trump blog is: that yours truly does not think he will be much of, if any, factor in the outcome of the Trump (Democrat)/Schuring (Republican) match up.
The Report is open to being persuaded that the current analysis is off-the-mark and that Deagan by virtue of his actual campaign will show signs that he is a "real" factor in terms of winning the district or, at least, factoring in as a force in determining who will win between Trump and Schuring.
So far, Deagan is not off to a good start.
In his pre-primary campaign finance report he showed $0 dollars in fund raising during the period. $0 in the balance forward line item.
Especially when one starts way behind.
Perhaps, he is busy reading a book by fellow Libertarian Robert D. Butler, to wit:
From the looks of 18 the steps listed, it seems to be chocked full of advice which could make Deagan a serious candidate if he can parlay implementing the steps into votes.
As the SCPR sees Libertarian candidates (yours truly has a Libertarian nephew), is that many people agree with them "in principle," but see them as "not being pragmatic, perhaps, even politically naive" and to vote for them is like throwing one's vote away.
From the Libertarian website:
Who would disagree with that?The Libertarian way is a logically consistent approach to politics based on the moral principle of self-ownership. Each individual has the right to control his or her own body, action, speech, and property. Government's only role is to help individuals defend themselves from force and fraud.
But, rightly or wrongly, most voters seem to think that Libertarians are not conciliatory enough with those who disagree with them to be able to be effective in governance.
Stark County does have a recent election in which - in the opinion of the SCPR - an "independent" (did not list himself as a Libertarian) candidate did change the outcome of the election.
The Report believes that, in November 2010, Democrat Thomas Bernabei (former Canton law director, councilman and service director/chief of staff [Healy] defeated Republican James Walters [trustee, Jackson Township) because of the surprising vote that "independent" Stephen Todd garnered.
It appears to The Report that Todd was politically to the right of both Walters and Bernabei (a center, left of center Democrat) and therefore took enough votes from Walters to make Bernabei county commissioner.
Could John Deagan do the same in a Trump/Schuring/Deagan line up?
Perhaps, but not likely in the judgment of the SCPR.
He does have an impressive list of business/community involvements in Jackson:
- owns three successful businesses,
- a past-President of the Jackson Township Rotary Club and a current member.
- on the board of the football booster club.
- a member of a "Citizens Advisory Committee" for Jackson Township.
- a member of the Chamber of Commerce, and
- served on the Ambassador Committee for several years.
- an active TEA-partier
- a member of the 912 Group [Glenn Beck associated]
- also participated in "Occupy Canton"
"Occupy Canton?" Hmm?
A way left-of-center group for a clearly right-of-center candidate?
Won't this be very confusing to Tea Partiers and others on the political right who might otherwise be interested in voting for someone on the political right as an alternative to Republican Schuring?
Here is a video of Deagan speaking to the "Occupy Canton" folks at a downtown rally they held in downtown Canton in October, 2011.
Deagan tells The Report that he knows (notwithstanding the $0 pre-primary campaign finance report) he can raise the needed money to fund a winning campaign (probably about $500,000, the SCPR thinks) and attract "an army of volunteers" to his campaign.
He then says something that completely undermines having said what he said about his ability to raise money and attract volunteers, to wit:
"I am admittedly not fully committed, as I do have businesses to run and a family to enjoy my time with."
One does have to make choices in life and running for political office (honest candidates will tell you) does cut into the time one can devote to his employment and, most unfortunately, to one's family.
In saying "I am admittedly not fully committed" in and of itself says to The Report that John Deagan will certainly not be the first state representative elected to the new 48th House District brought into being by the constitutionally required decentennial redistricting.
Moreover, it is unlikely that he can pull a Stephen Todd and be a political spoiler in putting Democrat Amanda Trump in the Statehouse over Republican Kirk Schuring.
Nonetheless, The Report will keep the ear to the ground and if Deagan shows he is being effective in getting would-be Schuring voters going his way, readers can expect future blogs to include Deagan as a material factor in the outcome of the race.