Thursday, February 8, 2018

SCPR "COUNTDOWN TO PRIMARY" SERIES, VOL 1



Today The Stark County Political Report starts a series of blogs featuring candidates in "contested" races appearing on the May 8, 2018 Democratic and Republican political parties ballot candidates.

The objective of this series is through:

  • Q&A e-mail exchanges,
  • SCPR "on camera" interview,
  • Links to other that SCPR sources, 
to provide information on candidates that vie with another for their respective political party nomination to partisan voters so that they are equipped to make an informed choice.

It is common knowledge that in a general election that way too many voters vote Republican or Democratic in alignment with their political party preference in sort of an uninformed, knee-jerk fashion which produces all too many political party loyalists in elected public office.

The one redeeming quality of partisan primary elections that are competitive within a political party is that unless a voter is willing to vote for/against a candidate on some "unthought" criterion, the voter actually has to find an an "on the issues" identity with a candidate to make a distinction of as to whom among candidates carrying the same party label the voter votes for.


We start off  today with the 50th Ohio House District on the Democratic Party side.


Here is a brief biography of candidate Vizzuso.


And here is a e-mail Q&A between the SCPR and candidate Vizzuso of February 1, 2018.

(SCPR) What prompted you to file as a Democratic candidate for state representative for the 50th?

(Vizzuso) I believe now more than ever we need new leadership representing our districts with new ideas and energy to combat our issues. I believe in Democratic values and want to look across the district and share the platform of the Democratic Party to advance our district to prosperity. I believe that the team we have assembled has a deep understanding that democracy works best when everyone is involved and we want to involve all the folks in District 50 and also those that have not been heard for quite some time.

Undoubtedly, you are aware that Debbie Cain (the Dems candidate in 2014) and Cassie Gabelt have taken out petitions to run for the 50th seat.

Your own idea?

This is a decision I made on my own. I have always wanted to give back to the community that helped raise and shape me into the man I am today. I think that for quite some time I have wanted to run and while serving at United Way it became more evident to me that now was the time to step up.

Party officials asked you to run?

No.

What is in your background which you think qualifies you to be a member of the Ohio House?

In 2012 I made a promise to myself to dedicate my life to the service of others and to help leave the world a better place than I found it. From that point on I have explored every avenue to develop as a public servant and as a leader.

In college, I studied Political Science at Ohio University to better understand the function of government and how the system works for the people in a democracy. I also studied law, justice, and culture to see how they intersect and influence how we navigate our system of justice.

After graduation, I decided to take a year and commit to the direct service of others. Through the Pittsburgh Urban Leadership Service Experience, I have had the opportunity to work alongside leaders in Pittsburgh to combat issues facing our education system. I’ve acquired a breadth of knowledge about poverty, affordable housing, public transportation, education, mental health, and healthcare by working with students, families, educators and other service employees.

As a young kid growing up in Alliance, OH, there were many people who inspired me to work hard and achieve the goals that I set for myself. I think I have an opportunity to be that person the youth in our district can look to just as so many people were there for me. I believe that our district needs someone who the people can count on. The people of District 50 can count on me.

How do you plan to differentiate yourself from Cain/Gabelt (assuming they actually file; Gabelt assures me she will)?

I believe that as a Democratic candidate, embracing the diversity and cultural differences in our district is something that candidates in the 50th District have not done for a long time. I see my campaign as an opportunity to bring people together from different neighborhoods and towns and sit down and hear what our shared concerns are. I will be the youngest candidate running in this primary and believe that this is a characteristic that I must embrace. I see myself as an underdog. I will put all of my energy into talking to voters and my policies will always, put the people of District 50 first.

What is your primary issue that should be become the Democratic nominee in a general election which the SCPR thinks will have Reggie Stoltzfus as the Republican candidate?

My primary issue is job creation in Ohio’s 50th District. I think that Ohio has an opportunity to be at the forefront of the clean and renewable energy movement. I believe that if we invest in fixing our infrastructure both for ourselves and to pave the way for these industries we will be successful. This means investing in job training that will give hard-working people in the district the skills they need for industry employment. These industries will provide a living wage for families and we will see prosperity in Northeast Ohio once again.

In addition to your primary issue, what other issues are priorities for you in the event you become the Democratic nominee?

I believe in a quality education that can propel our students into achieving their goals. Our schools are the foundation of our neighborhoods and it’s important we establish equity across Ohio when it comes to receiving an education.

As District 50’s representative, I will work to improve our infrastructure to create jobs and bring small and large businesses to Ohio.  

Ensuring that our seniors have a secure retirement after working hard for our state for decades is important to us. I believe in securing pensions that people have worked for all of their life.

Finally, I believe in ensuring that our rights are protected whether we are a person of color, a member of the lgbt community, a veteran reintegrating into society, a person who has gone through the criminal justice system, or a person with disabilities. Nobody should be discriminated against in the workplace, school, anywhere they shop or spend time with friends and family. I stand with the great people of District 50 against hate and division. It will not be tolerated. We achieve more listening to each other and working together towards the common goals of job creation, strong schools, safe seniors, and an infrastructure that makes travel safe and efficient. I look forward to the opportunity to listen to and work with the people of District 50 to address all of these issues while respecting each other’s viewpoints and differences.

Here is a copy of candidate Vizzuso's petitions filed with the Stark County Board of Elections:


Wednesday, February 7, 2018

FEBRUARY 7, 2018 - PARTISAN FILING DATE DEADLINE

UPDATE:  02/08/2018
Under 48th "The Democratic Side"
See Dem Candidate Lorraine Wilburn YouTube Video Link

UPDATE:  4:40 PM

BREAKING NEWS:  (4:40 PM) WALTERS (AS PREDICTED BY SCPR) WITHDRAWS FROM 48TH OHIO HOUSE SEAT RACE

UPDATE:  10:30 PM

16TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT (NORTH/NE STARK COUNTY)


7TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT (MOST OF STARK COUNTY)




CAIN DOES NOT FILE IN THE 50TH

ORIGINAL BLOG

STARK COUNTY BOARD OF ELECTIONS



Today is the day which closes out any partisan candidate for political office to file or forever hold his/her peace.

Of particular interest to readers of The Stark County Political Report (SCPR) are those running for office who are closest to us, to wit:
  • State Representative 48th Ohio House District,
  • State Representative 49th Ohio House District,
  • State Representative 50th Ohio House District,
  • State Senator 29th Ohio Senate District,
  • Stark County Commissioner, and
  • Stark County Auditor
Oh yes, there is a judicial race.

But other than publish information about the various candidates a la The League of Women Voters there likely will not be whole lot attention payed by the SCPR to it because it is likely to be very boring.

Every once in a while a judicial election contest heats up (e.g. Hartnett v. Werren, because of [in The Report's view] the wide disparity in the qualifications of the candidates]), but generally that is not the case and it appears to the SCPR the quest to replace retiring Democratic judge John Haas will probably like "watching paint dry."

The SCPR in harping on Hartnett's vastly superior qualifications over Werren had a part to play in that judicial face off generating some excitement.

As it turned out, Hartnett pulled off a political stunner in eking out Werren who had been appointed because of his Republican Party connections to Republican governor John Kasich.

What made the Hartnett victory particularly delicious was that the Republicans had arranged for long time friend of the SCPR V. Lee Sinclair to resign before his term ended which resulted in Werren taking office on July 8, 2013 only to be defeated by the upstart Hartnett in November 2014.


The 50th

General Discussion:

This district should definitely be a Republican win come November no matter who the nominee.

However, there is no incumbent and there might be a parallel between the 50th and the 97th Missouri House Seat decided on Tuesday, February 6, 2018 which might be encouraging to whomever comes out of the Democratic side of Ohio's May 8th primary.

Take a look:


The Republican Side

With Christina Hagan opting to give up her seat in the Ohio House (50th District) to run for the Republican nomination in the 16th Congressional District, she is apparently assigned to her brother Josh the task of holding on the the seat as a Hagan entitlement.

Not likely though.  

Look at this graphic on the campaign financing (focusing on the Stark County Republican Party politically powerfuls) of Paris Township trustee Reggie Stoltzfus:


Christina (an extreme religious right politico) is likely to get waxed by mainstream Republican Party  candidate (whose supporters include a number of the Stark County Timken clan members) Anthony Gonzalez 

So she and bro Josh will likely be the last of the aspirational political dynasty that the Hagan clan has tried to put together.

While the SCPR is willing to say in this blog that unless some catastrophe befalls him will be the Republican nominee for the 50th.

One has to wonder what Jacob Urick of Louisville is thinking in getting in this race on the Republican side?

Maybe he knows something that the rest of us do not know?

And by the way, Larry Carver has told the SCPR that he will not be filing.

On the Democratic side it could be a pitched battle as to become the Democratic nominee.

Yet to file (as of this blog) is 2014 candidate Debbie Cain (a former state board of education member (including a stint as president under Democratic governor Ted Strickland).

If she does file, The Report will take a detailed look had she did in Lake Township against Christina Hagan and assess whether or not her being a two time Lake Board of Education member is likely to give her an advantage of being the nominee again.

Her 2014 campaign was a dud.

UPDATE:

CAIN DOES NOT FILE


Though young and politically inexperienced, SCPR contact with Cassie Gabelt and Courtlen Vizzous revealed two highly energized candidates which could pose a threat to Stotzfus if either one becomes the Democrat's nominee.

Not only is Stoltzfus well healed in campaign financing, the 50th is decidedly Republican.  

Something to look at as this campaign plays out is whether or not the Republican brand is becoming tarnished clear down to the state level (as in Virginia in 2017) because of negative reaction to the antics of the president and some of his Republican supporters in Congress.

If there is a further erosion of public taste for Trump brand Republicanism, there could be an opportunity for nearly any Democrat running at the state level.

The 49th
The Democratic Side

Incumbent Democrat should be a shoe-in for former Ward 2 councilman Thomas West in this solidly Democratic district.

One thing that West has demonstrated is that he does indeed have some life in him.

His predecessor Stephen Slesnick seemed to the SCPR to be a sleep walking representative.

However, West, as any Democrat in the Legislature shares, is cursed with being in a huge, huge, huge minority so that Democrats only can do what the in command Republicans allow.

The Republican Side

The Republicans put up a quality candidate in Dan McMasters who lost 57% to 43% to West.

The SCPR thinks that any Republican running for the Ohio legislature or for Congress (the House and the Senate) have to be just a bit leery about the Trump effect.

The 

James Haavisto appears to be of the same quality of McMasters.

But in a highly tilted Democratic district Haavisto has to convince Democrats that if they abandon West to put him in place in the Ohio General Assembly he will not be a "fall into line with the Republican caucus" Republican.

Both the Democratic and Republican caucuses adhere to what is called the "80/20 rule" which translates that if 80% of the caucus decides to vote for or against a measure then ALL of that party agree to fall into line and vote the party line.

Haavisto (the entrepreneur he is) could make West sweat but he has some huge hurdles to overcome

The 48th

The Republican Side

Obviously, long time Republican state legislator W. Scott Oelslager (currently holding the 29th District State Senate seat) is in position for the third time return to the House.  He and term-limited-out state Rep. Kirk Schuring have worked in tandem to defeat a 1992 voter approved term limits (8 consecutive years in either body) by switching back and forth between the Jackson/North Canton house district (whatever the number happens to be as a consequence of redistricting) and the within Stark County senate seat.

However, it may not be so easy for Oelslager this time around.

Jackson Township trustee James N. Walters (excuse me, "the Reverend Jamie Walters") is taking him on.

Walters has been place in Jackson for several terms.

The Report, even though he filed long ago, would not be surprised to see him withdraw in favor of Oelslager under Republican Party pressure.

UPDATE:



The Democratic Side

A newcomer is on tap to become the Democratic nominee.

Lorraine Wilbourn (YouTube Video Link) is a transplant to Stark County, Ohio several years ago from Maryland who was active in Maryland Democratic politics.


As seen in the foregoing graphic, she has put her political activism to work as the chief player in Action Together Stark County.

It would be a phenomenon that would likely capture national attention were she, Cassie Gabelt and Lauren Friedman to end up in the Ohio General Assembly.

"It won't be easy" no doubt for any one of the three to wind and Wilburn and Friedman have the toughest, roughest road to Columbus inasmuch they will have likely have to face Kirk Schuring and Scott Oelslager to get there.

Gabelt doesn't have, if she becomes the Democratic nominee, doesn't have "a piece of cake" but at least she is not facing a veteran legislator.

It appears that the Action Together might just play big in giving Wilburn a fighting chance in the 48th.

The Republican Side

Kirk Schuring, like Oelslager, is the odds on favorite to return to the Ohio General Assembly as state Senator Kirk Schuring.

Schuring is less isolated from Stark County than Oelslager but he seems more comfortable in Columbus than in Jackson Township and North Canton.

Stark County Offices (non-judicial)

Stark County Commissioner

The Republican Side

Republican Janet Weir Creighton is a fixture in countywide Stark County politics.

She started out years ago as county recorder.  Then she migrated to the county auditor's office.

Creighton stepped out of political character (in terms of geography) in running for and winning a term as mayor of Canton (2003).

However, by 2007 Canton was so heavy Democratic that she lost in that year to Democrat William J. Healy, II.

In 2010 as Stark County government faced a loss of confidence on the part of the Stark County public because of what some call Zeiglergate (2009-2011)in which a chief deputy treasurer stole what is thought to be upwards of $3 million in Stark County taxpayer funds and a number of Stark Countians are of the opinion (as was the State of Ohio Auditor Mary Taylor) that Treasurer Gary Zeigler did not exercise sufficient due diligence in putting in place policies, practices, procedures and secure facilities so as to prevented the theft.

In November 2011, she along with then-Democrat Thomas Bernabei (also elected in November, 2010) had restored enough of the lost confidence to persuade Stark Countians to approve a 1/2 cent sales tax designated exclusively for justice system financing.

Re-elected in 2014, she likely will "waltz to victory" this election year.

At the county level, there is no better vote getter than Republican Janet Weir Creighton.

The Democratic Side

Democrat Katherine Baylock in the opinion of the SCPR has no chance whatsoever to defeat Creighton.

God forbid, of course, but anything could happen that would prevent Commissioner Creighton from staying in the race.

Baylock is to be admired for getting into a seemingly impossible contest for her.

No Stark countywide office should ever, ever, ever go uncontested.

But it does happen way too often.

Stark County Auditor

The Democratic Side

The last the SCPR knew Democrat Linda Litman (a sitting Massillon councilwoman [Ward 6]) had strong union connections through her husband.

If such is still the case, countywide organized labor on her side could make things interesting in this political contest.

Litman has been a banker at least since 2004 according to her Facebook page.

On her FB page, the SCPR noticed a reference to former Stark County auditor Kim Perez.  Perez lost to  Republican Alan Harold (the incumbent auditor) in 2010 likely as a consequence of collateral political damage because of his long time political relationship with former treasurer Gary Zeigler.

One has to wonder whether or not Perez is one of the Stark County Democrats encouraging Litman to run against Harold.

The Republican Side

In the SCPR's book, Republican and county auditor Alan Harold is among the very top (competence wise) Stark County public officials.

However, he is too political for the The Report's liking.

He needs to tone down the politics.

Some Stark Countians think Republican Party politics filters into the personnel decisions that Harold makes in the operation of the auditor's office.

Not long ago he made a major hire (highest paid official in the office) for the Information Technology aspect of the auditor's office which did not work out and that hiree is no longer heading up IT.

Currently, he is in process of updating the physical facilities of the office and is working full speed ahead to dramatically improve the county's technology.


Tuesday, February 6, 2018

COUNTDOWN TO OHIO/STARK COUNTY PARTISAN PRIMARY FILING DATE

UPDATE: Tuesday, February 6, 2018




With one day to go before the filing deadline, some interesting filings took place today (February 6, 2018) at the Stark County Board of Elections.

By Contest:

50th Ohio House District

Josh Hagan (Republican, Marlboro) brother of current 50 Ohio House District representative Christina Hagan, who is abandoning the seat to run for the 16th Congressional District. About a week ago Christina made a "sudden move" into the 16th likely because of a national blog site criticism of her not living in the district she was running for.

Jacob Urick (Republican, Louisville)

49th Ohio House District

Thomas West (Democrat), incumbent and former Ward 2 Canton councilman.

James Haavisto (Republican) who is the owner JD's Gourmet Hot Dogs located on Navarre Road, Canton.  His daughter works for Christina Hagan as an aide.

48th Ohio House District

Lorraine Wilburn (Democrat), North Canton.


29th Ohio Senate District

Lauren Friedman (Democrat), North Canton.


Stark County Offices
(but not judicial and political party committee filings)

Commissioner

Janet Creighton (Republican, Canton) incumbent commissioner, former mayor of Canton, former Stark County auditor and former Stark County recorder.

Auditor

Linda Litman (Democrat), sitting Massillon councilperson representing Massillon's 6th ward.

ORIGINAL BLOGAS UPDATED PERIODICALLY OVER THE PAST MONTH OR SO

Races covered:  governor, U.S. Senate, 7th/16th U.S. House, 48th, 49th & 50th Ohio House, 29th Ohio Senate



2018 GOVERNOR & SENATE CONTESTS

REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR

As we all knew would eventually happen, the Republican and Democratic fields for governor have narrowed considerably.

The Republican side is virtually locked up by the DeWine/Husted (a former DeWine competitor).  Only Mary Taylor remains of possibly viable candidates.  The SCPR thinks it doesn't mean much in terms of significance but state Rep. Christina Hagan (a candidate for the Republican nomination to the 16th congressional district) has endorsed Taylor.

Here is the results of a poll of the Republican side taken by a group known as 1984 Society (see Cleveland.com article for background on 1984 Society, a little over 800 voters sampled)




Even though there is a sizeable percentage of voters in the "undecided" camp, unless DeWine/Husted commit a huge political blunder (which is extremely difficult to do in these days of "the coarsening of political engagement" at the hand of President Trump), it appears the Republican gubernatorial nomination is in the category of being "theirs to lose."


DeWine/Husted Stark County chair and Stark County treasurer Alex Zumbar, though tempered because a little more than four (4) months remain until Ohio/Stark County Republicans vote on who the governor candidate will be, was greatly pleased to hear about the 40 percentage lead in the 1984 Society poll results.

Zumbar said that while the polling lead is comforting, he knows that the strong effort by the DeWine/Husted campaign needs to continue and vowed to make Stark County a part of a "not letting our guard down" going forward effort.

Stark County Commissioner Janet Creighton is a northeast Ohio regional chair for the DeWine campaign.


Her reaction to the poll numbers:

Janet Creighton ... Jan 26 at 4:54 PM
To:  Martin Olson

... Happy with poll numbers.  Campaign will continue to work hard and not take anything for granted.  Now that Husted team has joined us, there is strength in numbers.  

Happy Hawaii!

Janet

For unaware readers, The Report is in Hawaii (since January 14th) and likely will remain until at least March 14th.

THE VANQUISHED REPUBLICAN

REPUBLICAN U.S. SENATE SEAT

Republican Jim Renacci "doomed to failure" gubernatorial campaign promoted him to jump to the Republican U.S. Senate race with the withdrawal of frontrunner Josh Mandel.

Mandel had been contesting with Republican Republican Mike Gibbons.

Already the Renacci/Gibbons race is getting testy with a revelation in a Cleveland.com piece that the Renacci camp is making allegations of information theft from its campaign from a former Renacci volunteer governor campaign staffer who has switched over to the Gibbons campaign.
primary (May 8, 2018) against Cleveland area.

The Gibbons campaign has announced a 46 appointment of co-captains for Mike's campaign, to wit:




The SCPR has made repeated efforts to contact Ms. Sommerville for a Stark County perspective on the Gibbons effort.

So far, no response.

The campaigns sends out a press release and the named co-captain for Stark County is inaccessible?

Might be an indication that the Gibbons campaign is going nowhere at least in Stark County?

DEMOCRAT GOVERNOR

Former Consumer Finance Protection Bureau chief (2012 - 2017) Richard Cordray has to be pleased by the Democratic side of the governor's race 1984 Society poll:





In contrast to Zumbar, getting Canton City Council president Allen Schulman to talk about his preferred candidate for governor, is "like pulling teeth."

The SCPR has made several inquiries of leading "organized" Stark County Democratic officials about a man they all had to know would eventually surface to the top of the Democratic side of the gubernatorial questing slate, but none of them have been willing to respond.


Kind of strange for one of Cordray's key supporters to take that tack when the candidate himself is behind in the same poll done on the presumption of a DeWine/Cordray match up.  (see the poll referred to under "The November Election" subheading below)

Disappointing to the SCPR is the percentage of the Democratic vote garnered by Joe Schiavoni.  To The Report the likes of a Joe Schiavoni should be the focus of Democrats over the well-traveled Cordray.

Mention needs to be made of the having withdrawn Dayton mayor Nan Whaley, who, in doing so, endorsed Richard Cordray.

One has to wonder where Whaley's withdrawal leaves Stark County clerk of courts Louis Giavasis and Jackson fiscal officer Randy Gonzalez inasmuch as both endorsed Whaley several months ago.

In a December blog, the SCPR had a little fun with Giavasis and Gonzalez in their having endorsed Whaley on September 17, 2017.  A date way in advance of what a cautious typical politician does unless of course the endorsed candidate is pretty much a sure thing as per former Stark County Dems' chairman Johnnie A. Maier, Jr. do in endorsing Ted Strickland for governor in 2006.




Political retread Dennis Kucinich who Canton councilman Bill Smuckler has historical ties to announced this past week he is in the race and picking yesterday, Friday, January 19, Akron councilwoman Tara Samples to be his running mate.

Also in the race on the Democratic side is Ohio Supreme Court justice William O'Neill who is being challenged on his right to remain on the Supreme Court while running for governor.

The only viable Democrat remaining on the Democratic side is Youngstown area state Senator Joe Schiavoni.

Yes, Cincinnati area Democrat Connie Pillich remains and a couple of days ago she picked a running mate but the SCPR thinks she along with O'Neill are non-factors on the Democratic side.  On February 6, 2018 "Emily's List" announced that Pillich had its endorsement for governor.

Schiavoni, too, has picked a running mate in state board of education member Stephanie Dodd.

THE NOVEMBER ELECTION

If DeWine Stark County chair Alex Zumbar thinks his candidate still has work to do to secure the Republican nomination, magnify that for Cordray supporters come the general election.

Had Renacci remained in the race and became the Republican nominee (not likely, but possible), the Dems could have attacked him on being all-out for Donald J. Trump.

However, it appears to the SCPR that DeWine has positioned himself to not be very vulnerable to such a campaign approach.

Name recognition will not be a factor in a DeWine/Cordray face off.

Both have held quite a few offices in Ohio governance.


LOCAL CONGRESSIONAL/STATE HOUSE FACEOFFS

THE 7TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Its is too bad that Democrat Ken Harbaugh is running in the 7th congressional district rather than in the 16th.

Even with Republican incumbent joined at the hip with the growingly unpopular President Donald Trump,  Harbaugh is unlikely to be able to overcome the huge Trump plurality (2016) in the 7th to unseat Gibbs.

In the 16th, though still gerrymandered to advantage any Republican running, a being in the same political party as Trump factor could be a winner for a "viable" Democratic candidate because of "suburban independent and Republican women" abandoning the GOP in order to send a message to the Republicans and Trump.

Right now the Democrats do not have a "viable" candidate.  Unless one surfaces, the 16th will not be a pick up for the Democrats nationally in their quest to turn the U.S. House of Representatives Democratic on January 1, 2019.

Impressively, Harbaugh has out-fundraised incumbent Gibbs and has spent money on gaining voter recognition that might make him competitive in November.




THE 16TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Will Republican Christina Hagan (who does live in the 16th but rather in the 7th)  before—through the end of December, 2017—campaign finance reports (CPR) become public on or about February 15, 2018 withdraw from running to replace Renacci and file instead to run for a fourth term as 50th Ohio House District representative?

In a move that is an obvious sign she plans to stay in the 16th U.S.House Race, according to a Stark BOE report Hagan has "apparently" moved into the 16th.




The Report has confirmed with the Stark County Board of Elections that Hagan has changed her voter registration from: (as listed on January 20, 2018)


to:


Hagan must be figuring that an "outside-the-16th-address" (Beeson Street) will be a telling negative in a 16th District fight with fellow Republican Anthony Gonzalez.

Stay tuned for more information on the purported change in Hagan's address.

Hagan couldn't even muster the support of fellow Republican Bob Gibbs who represents the 7th.  Gibbs was a "headliner" guest on November 29th at Brookside Country Club in Canton, Ohio.

If she withdraws from the 16th primary contest, she likely will have some other justification than she has been taken out by a gigantic campaign finance tidal wave support for "surprise" mainstream Republican candidate Anthony Gonzalez.

Gonzalez surfaced well after Hagan tried to preempt the field, having announced her candidacy in March, 2017.

It appears to the SCPR that Hagan's hasty decision to run for the 16th was ill-advised and she likely is on her way to becoming a civilian after the primary filing date of February 7, 2018.

Hagan's Stark County political future could be "hanging in the balance" in either event.  She has been telling local Republicans that she thinks the Hagan clan is on a "political" roll and is on the cusp becoming a dynastic political operation in Stark County Republican politics.

When she announced last March, she said to prominent Stark County Republicans that she would raise $15/16 million for the primary and another $1.5 million for the general election in what "before Trump" seemed to be a safe Republican congressional seat.

She can forget all that fundraising for the 16th.  The only question now is whether she so treasurers holding public office that she will go back to running in Ohio's 50th House District.

THE 50TH OHIO HOUSE SEAT

Paris Township trustee Reggie Stoltzfus says he is "all in" to be the Republican nominee for the 50th District no matter what Hagan decides to do.

Facing likely Republican candidate Stoltzfus in November might be a "new" Democratic politician Cassie Gabelt. Gabelt is in her late 20s.  One has the tag her as been a distinct underdog in the 50th, but in this day and age who knows?

Gabelt has an impressive background in having served in the U.S. Navy.

Hold on a minute on Gabelt!

Probably yesterday 2016 50th District Ohio House candidate Debbie Cain (now a member of the Lake Local School District Board of Education and in her mid to late 60s) took out petitions to run another time for this 50th.  Cain seems to banking on Christina Hagan going ahead with a 16th District run for in 2014 she got waxed by Hagan.


Hold on a minute on Gabelt and Cain!!

Out-of-Nowhere last week,  Courtlen Vizzuso of Alliance filed to run for the Democratic nomination in Stark County's 50th Ohio House District, to wit:


A brief biography on Vizzuso:


For Gabelt or Cain for Vizzuso to win in the 50th, either will have to rely on a political backlash on President Trump filtering down to state legislative races across the nation.

In recent Virginia statehouse elections, many political analyst thinks that did happen in that Democrats came very close to capturing control of of the Virginia legislature despite having been a decided majority before the election.

THE 48TH OHIO HOUSE DISTRICT

Will Republican Jackson Township trustee Jamie Walters persist in challenging Scott Oelslager as successor to term-limited out Republican Kirk Schuring in Ohio's 48th Ohio House District?

You have to believe that the "powers that be" in the Stark County Republican Party are working feverishly trying to get Walters out of the race.

The SCRP is highly skeptical that Walters can "retire" Oelslager in his quest to once again in tandem with fellow Republican Kirk Schuring are endeavoring to trade the 48th for the 29th (Ohio Senate District) as they have done twice before in defiance of Ohio's term limits which both supported when it was passed by a Republican majority Ohio General Assembly (OGA)  in 1992 as a way to wrest control from Vern Riffe era majority Democrats (which included Massillonian Johnnie A. Maier, Jr [now Massillon clerk of courts].

Oelslager lives in North Canton Ward 4 which is in the 48th.

Could Walters be trying to set up a Jackson/North Canton contest?

THE 49TH OHIO HOUSE DISTRICT





First term 49th Ohio House District state Rep. Thomas West (a Democrat) will face challenge in his quest to remain in the Ohio House.

Republican and hot dog stand owner (JD's Gourmet HOT DOGS) James Haavisto (whose daughter, by the way, works for Christina Hagan in the Ohio House) says he plans an aggressive campaign against West.

Haavisto appears to be a quality candidate in that he is not off in the right wing fringes of the party.

The 49th has been gerrymandered by the Republican controlling the Statehouse to be Democratic under most circumstances.

And 2018 is not a good year for a Republican to be running in the 49th.

West is a vast improvement in the 49th over former (term-limited-out) state Rep. Stephen Slesnick.

All Slesnick seemingly could do was the ceremonial functions of being a state representatives.

West has joined with Republican Kirk Schuring to sponsor House Bill 462 in order to give Massillon more time to recover from the announced closing (February 4th) of Affinity Medical Center which could cost Massillon dearly in income tax revenue a new buyer cannot be found.

THE 29TH OHIO SENATE DISTRICT

Schuring is on his third attempt to defeat the intent of the voters when in 1992 Ohioans approved term limits of eight (8) consecutive years on the House/Senate.  Schuring and Scott Oelslager are in sync that their respective eight years end at the same time.  So they merely switch (both live in the 48th House District/29th Senate District) chambers.

Both by the way support term limits.

Just another case of political hypocrisy, which, of course, does not seem to cost the hypocrites politically.



Monday, February 5, 2018

PART 2 OF A SCPR SERIES: CANTON MAYOR TOM BERNABEI DESERVES A CHANCE TO TURN CANTON AROUND

UPDATE:  02/6/2018


LINK TO PART 1

See Entire Bernabei Letter to Council in Appendix

UPDATED MATERIAL

Income tax ordinance passes on unanimous basis:


Councilwoman Corey Minor Smith speaks:



ORIGINAL BLOG

The Stark County Political Report (SCPR) predicts that the all Democratic Canton City Council (12 members plus council president Alan Schulman, who only votes in the case of a tie) will vote to approve the following resolution which will cause the Mayor Thomas M. Bernabei (a political independent) proposal to increase Canton's income tax to be placed on the May 8, 2018 primary election ballot.


In a Q&A telephone 35 minute conversation, more or less, (the SCPR is currently in Hawaii), with Mayor Bernabei on January 30th, he said he felt confident that a substantial majority if not a unanimity of council will vote to place the tax issue on the ballot.  (see proposed ordinance in appendix)

It appears that a lone holdout in voting "aye" on the resolution might be Ward 9 councilman Frank Morris who was recently stepped aside as majority leader and vice president of council.

However, Morris remains a formidable force on council inasmuch as he is chairman of the critically important and strategically placed Canton City Council Finance Committee.  And, the SCPR's impression of Morris' attitude towards the mayor has been "skeptical" if not hostile.

In the November, 2015 race between "independent" Bernabei and "seeking a third term" and "dyed in the wool" Democrat William J. Healy, II most of council was overtly supportive of Healy with Bernabei doing well to get several council members to stay neutral.  Only dean of council councilman-at-large Bill Smuckler was an out-and-out Bernabei supporter.

Mayor Bernabei says that proposing a tax increase has been in the works for two or three months and he emphasizes the word "we" in the context of the proceedings a steering committee set up at the suggestion of the consulting company that did a $350,000 study on the future of Canton and published in February, 2016 as the Canton Comprehensive Plan.  (see appendix for the full report)


Mayor Bernabei was highly complimentary of Ward 4 councilwoman (also majority leader and vice president of council) Chris Smith and Councilman Edmond Mack (chair of judiciary) in the manner in which they have worked with the administration to achieve a broad range of council support for the tax ballot measure.  He pointed out that he not only has coordinated with Smith and Mack in that he has held discussions with other council members on the matter.

As most Cantonians likely know, Canton has be sliding into an economic/financial abyss for upwards of 75 years (the number Bernabei used in our conversation.  Of course, 75 years takes in a lot of prior administrations.

An interesting side note is that Councilman-at-Large Jimmy Babcock's father is included in the Bernabei defined time frame.

However, the Babcock administration was early in the period and likely at that stage Cantonians had not noticed that Canton's slide was underway.

With the tax base as it is in 2018, it is projected that an increase from 2% to 2.5% will yield about $11.5 million annually of which 60% of the increase will be set aside annually to the tune of about $6.9 million for phased in implementation of the Canton Comprehensive Plan (CCP).

Of course, the tax base could vary over ensuing years and so the time period over which it will take to raise (from public sources) some $125 million (which the mayor says is an inexact number) as is the estimated (according to the authors of the CCP) to also be $125 million.

The fact of the matter is that it took 75 years for Canton's economy/finances to decline to where they are in 2018 and the work of rehabbing the city infrastructure including revitalizing Canton's residential neighborhoods will go beyond the 15, 16, 17 or 18 years it might take to raise the start out figure of $125 million.

An important factor is how the money might be spent is Bernabei media reported statement that the only money he contemplates spending relative the the Pro Football Hall of Fame Village Project is on the corridor from downtown Canton to the village.  He has noted that Canton has been $5 million in the project itself and clearly implies that the $5 millon will be it.

"There is no magic in the number $125 million," to put the foregoing paragraph in the exact words of Mayor Bernabei.

If Canton's voters approve the tax increase in May, the tax will begin to be collected in July, 2018.  However, the mayor says that the creation of a fund cannot be done until the city obtains State of Ohio Auditor approval and therefore he could not tell the SCPR how the fund is to be nominated.

The same goes for the $1.15 million a year of the increased revenue designated as being for neighborhood development.

Here is a statistical picture of the work that has already been done by the Bernabei administration under the supervision of and guidance of executive specialist J.R. Rinaldi.


The legislation that council will be voting on tonight does have language that provides for some flexibility in that while the CCP is the starting point, language does include the ability for it to be amended.

However, there will no immediate spending with the receipt of the new revenue in the CCP project and the mayor thinks that a likely first project for the money might be creating a "greenfield" economic development project.

Here is a definition of "greenfield" from Wikipedia:

Literal examples of greenfield projects are new factories, power plants, airports which are built from scratch on greenfield land. Those facilities which are modified/upgraded are called brownfield land projects (often the pre-existing site/facilities are contaminated/polluted

Mayor Bernabei says that ideas for how to spend the money will come from three sources:
  • Deputy Mayor and Economic Development Director Fonda Williams when inquiries come in from businesses who are interested in relocating to Canton if there is sufficient financial assistance available,
  • Director of Planning Don Angus (hired in January, 2016) who, Bernabei says, has a wealth of experience as a planner with many contacts in the planning community and might well be the first person to come forward with an idea of how Canton ought to get started investing the CCP money for the betterment of Canton, and
  • developers coming forward to Canton officials with ideas for the city to consider
Canton citizens will absolutely be included in the entire implementation process, so says the mayor.

Citizen involvement is a critical factor in getting the increase passed.  It appears that the mayor and other city officials will be depending on citizens to step forward and help out in the campaign.

Beyond the campaign and assuming, of course, the increase passes; a non-profit IRS regulation meeting 501(c)(3) entity will be created and staffed with Cantonians who have the expertise to run such and entity effectively.

Bernabei says that all one has to do is look at the Steering Committee of the CCP to get an idea of who will be part of the non-profit entity which will have a mission of raising money from the private sector and locating ideas on how the city can efficiently and productively invest the additional monies.

He went to great pains to explain that Canton's neighborhood leaders and leaders in other citizen groups would be asked to join the non-profit effort.

When asked by the SCRP whether or not any polling has been done to detect whether or not there is community support for the notion of increasing Canton's income tax rate, Mayor Bernabei said that some area unions have done some polling and that the results show that there is indication of community receptivity to the idea of a tax increase.

The polls indicate a special receptivity when it comes to public safety, police and fire protection, roads, potholes, neighborhood development and things of that nature.

While there seems to be a substantial amount of support now, Mayor Bernabei says he understands that a job needs to be done to educate voters as to why the additional revenue is needed and how it will be used in a very "concrete" sort of way in order to convince voters to approve the income tax boost.

This effort is not Mayor Bernabei's "first rodeo."  He says that he has been involved in a number of revenue requesting projects.  A prime example of Bernabei prior experience is when he teamed up principally with fellow county commissioner Janet Creighton to persuade Stark Countians to agree to a 1/2 cent increase in Ohio Sales Tax the increase having been nominated as being a Justice System Sales Tax (JSST).

A final strain of the SCPR questioning of Mayor Bernabei broached the topic of whether or not he would be running for a second term in 2019.


He would not provide a direct answer to that question but he did say his decision one way or the other would be made late this year or early in 2019.

The criteria for whether or not he will run again?

Progress, pure and simple.

It appears to the SCPR that if he thinks he being effective as a leader in making progress in alleviating what ails Canton and the prospects for picking up the pace in a second term are apparent, he is likely to run.

Thomas M. Bernabei is a tireless leader.

The Report has observed his leadership style and productiveness from a close perspective from 2010 through the writing this blog.

Being commissioner and redeeming a bad financial picture with his fellow commissioners for the county was one thing, but making a difference in the long-in-the-making problems of Canton in quite another.

The Report thinks that for whatever time and effort he has left to devote to marshalling Canton's human resources to achieve the seemingly impossible is a godsend to Cantonians.

Canton City Council likely will tonight provide the mayor, his administration and themselves with the opportunity of having "a chance to succeed."

2018 could be a pivotal year of whether Canton can restore herself to being among Ohio's great cities.

But it will not be if Cantonians do not provide the revenue for Canton to comprehensively rebuild itself.

Council and Canton's voters need to focus on giving Mayor Thomas M. Bernabei and themselves a chance to succeed!

APPENDIX

COPY OF PROPOSED ORDINANCE



COPY OF BERNABEI LETTER TO COUNCIL



COPY OF COMPREHENSIVE PLAN