RENACCI/SUTTON RACE: THE 16TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT - STARK HOLDS THE KEY OR NOT? ALSO, ACCORDING TO NATE SLIVER, OBAMA IS FAVORITE TO WIN IN ELECTORAL COLLEGE (INCL: OHIO). WILL OBAMA PUT SUTTON OVER THE TOP?

UPDATE:  2:30 PM

Nov. 1: The Simple Case for Saying Obama Is the Favorite (LINK).

By NATE SILVER (FiveThirtyEight Blog)

ORIGINAL BLOG

It appears pretty clear that Republican Congressman Bob Gibbs will defeat Democratic challenger Joyce Healy-Abrams in the 7th Congressional District which encompasses Canton and most of the Stark County landmass.

And it seems highly likely that Democrat Tim Ryan will best his Republican opponent in the 13th Congressional District which contains the Alliance area of Stark County.

So whether or not Stark County will be mostly represented by Republicans or Democrats in the United States House of Representatives will boil down to the outcome of the Renacci (R - Wadsworth) versus Sutton (D - Copley) race in the newly constituted (because of redistricting as a result of a population loss in the 2010 census resulting in an Ohio two seat loss) 16th Congressional District.

And the 16th in terms of who will win has been swinging back and forth like a pendulum on the move and where it stops nobody seems to know.

The SCPR believes that the Renacci/Sutton winner in the 16th will be tied to whom among Barack Obama and Mitt Romney wins in the district.

For The Report the most reliable polling on the presidential race comes from Nate Silver's 538 blog.

Silver has Obama at a 80% chance of winning Ohio.

If 2012 was not a presidential year, the SCPR believes that his race would definitely be won by Jim Renacci.

About 50% of the district contains areas from his old district whereas Sutton only brings about 23% of her old district (the 13th) into the newly constituted 16th.

What role will Stark County (as well as nearby Summit and Portage County parts of the district) play in the outcome in this presidential year?

Stark (Jackson, Lawrence and part of Lake Township) will likely deliver a solid majority vote to Romney and Renacci only to be offset by the Summit and Portage sectors of the 16th for Obama and Sutton.

The Wayne and Medina County portions of the district will be solid Romney/Renacci territory.

So the key to the outcome of Renacci/Sutton is not going to be Stark.  But rather it seems to the SCPR that the Cuyahoga County (western Cleveland suburbs) portion of the district will be determinative.

However, to repeat, the net effect of the presidential side of the vote in the district is what puts Betty Sutton in play.

Consequently, the Renacci/Sutton race could either way.