Friday, November 21, 2014

A "SPECIAL" EDITION OF THE SCPR BLOG: HOW THE PROVISIONALS & ABSENTEES PLAYED OUT IN HARTNETT'S VICTORY OVER WERREN



'FINAL" 
UPDATE "SUNDAY"  11/23/2014 - "HIGH NOON"

SPREADSHEETS PUBLISHED

'CLICK ON GRAPHICS TO ENLARGE'

ALLIANCE
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BETHLEHEM TOWNSHIP
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CANAL FULTON
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CANTON CITY
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CANTON TOWNSHIP
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JACKSON TOWNSHIP
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LAKE TOWNSHIP
INCLUDES
HARTVILLE
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LAWRENCE TOWNSHIP
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LEXINGTON TOWNSHIP
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LOUISVILLE
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MARLBORO TOWNSHIP
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MASSILLON
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MYERS LAKE & NAVARRE
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NIMISHILLEN TOWNSHIP
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NORTH CANTON
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OSNABURG TOWNSHIP
INCLUDES
 (EAST CANTON)
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PARIS TOWNSHIP - MINERVA
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PERRY TOWNSHIP
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PIKE TOWNSHIP
INCLUDING
EAST SPARTA
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PLAIN TOWNSHIP
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SANDY TOWNSHIP 
 MAGNOLIA
WAYNESBURG
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SUGARCREEK TOWNSHIP
BREWSTER
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TUSCARAWAS TOWNSHIP
========================
WASHINGTON TOWNSHIP

The results are in.

After the provisional ballots and "late" arriving but postmarked on or before November 4, 2014 absentee ballots have been counted and certified as official numbers, as the SCPR predicted, Democrat Chryssa Hartnett pulled off a pretty amazing defeat of Republican Curtis Werren for Stark County Court of Common Pleas judge for the unexpired term of V. Lee Sinclair (a Republican himself).


In year when the lead of the Republican ticket (Republican incumbent governor John Kasich) won by over 37,000 votes in Stark County, a Democrat wins over an incumbent though "appointed" Republican.

Simply amazing.

Just an aside, but the Stark County Republican Party leadership has some "soul searching to do" in having Werren and Republican sheriff candidate Larry Dordea lose in an overwhelming Republican year.

Being the "number cruncher" the SCPR is, The Report has embarked on a "weekend project" of going through each and every precinct of Stark County's 284 precincts to show Stark County voters exactly where Hartnett overwhelmed Werren to gain 101 more votes of the provisionals and late arriving absentees to increase her "unofficial" election day tally from 29 votes to 131.

That is the "official" and certified count.

There will be a recount, but there is plenty of margin for Hartnett to offset any glitches that may surface.

Again, simply amazing!

The SCPR is pleased to have been a leading communicator of the greater degree of qualification that Hartnett possessed over Werren.

Nothing against Werren, but he did play the political game in getting the appointment.

It is refreshing to see merit win.

ALLIANCE

Starting off with Alliance.


In Alliance 69 uncounted "potential" votes remained after election night.

Of the 69 uncounteds 22 were disqualified for one reason or another "unanimously" by the two Democrats (Sherer, Jr and Ferruccio) and two Republicans (Braden and Cline), all of whom are political appointees by their respective political parties.

In Alliance alone, Hartnett picked up 15 votes to make her margin increase from 29 to 44.

Werren was in real trouble coming out of Alliance.  He wins 10 of 27 precincts but loses the count of the eligible to be counted votes.

Does not bode well, no?

BETHLEHEM TOWNSHIP 


Of some solace to Werren, he wins the count of the eligible uncounted by 1 vote.

He reduces Hartnett's lead to 43 votes.

CANAL FULTON


In Canal Fulton Hartnett "holds serve."  She won all four precincts in the "unofficial" count and she more than doubled Werren on the uncounted eligible to be counted voters.

At the Canal Fulton point of the uncounted eligible to be counted votes, Hartnett leads by 48 votes.

"Holding serve" was a feat that Werren was not able to accomplish in Alliance where he won 10 of 17 precincts.

CANTON CITY


No surprise here.

Canton, a Democratic stronghold.

Hartnett picks up 28 votes to increase her lead to 76 votes.

CANTON TOWNSHIP



if Curt Werren was privvy (which he wasn't, of course) to the counting of the eligible to be counted uncounted vote, he undoubtedly taken heart (presuming an "in alphabetical order" process) when the count reached Canton Township.

He outpolls Hartnett by four votes thereby reducing her lead to 72 votes.

And Republican strongholds Jackson and Lake township are next up on the alphabetical list.

"Hope, springs eternal," no?

JACKSON TOWNSHIP




Though Republican Werren did win a majority of Jackson's precincts (Jackson is a predominantly Republican part of Stark County), he did not gain votes on Democrat Hartnett.

By the SCPR's count he actually lost one vote.

Hartnett up 73 on Werren after the Jackson count.

What a disappointment for Werren, no?

LAKE TOWNSHIP



If the Jackson results on counting of eligible uncounted votes is disappointing to Werren, it is likely that the Lake count is even moreso.

A leading Stark County Republican told the SCPR before Friday's release of the count that the hope for a turn Werren's way was in Lake Township.

In Lake he won all but five precincts and there were 111 uncounted votes that predominantly go to Werren.

But the actual count only produced a four vote pick up.

After Lake, Hartnett's margin stands at 69.

Lake is about the alphabetical midpoint of the count and things are not looking good for Werren.

He has dropped 40 votes from the unofficial count showing Hartnett up 29 votes.

Many of us who do political/voting pattern analysis believe that Democrats have more trouble voting no matter the voting district.

The SCPR's take on voting so far is that more provisional ballots even in strong Republican area of Stark County seem to fit the stereotype that those ballots were predominantly cast by Democrats.

While Republcan Werren did have a margin in Lake, it was a small one.  Jackson was a virtual tie.

LAWRENCE TOWNSHIP



Hartnett took four of the five Lawrence Township precincts.  And, much more truer to form in terms of a correlation between Harnett dominating in a particular city, village or township than with Werren, a Harnett dominance in a given geographical unit usually spells a significant increase in her vote total.

By the SCPR's vote tally, she picked up six votes in Lawrence which increases her lead to 75.

LEXINGTON TOWNSHIP




Hartnett and Werren split Lexington Township.

Yet Hartnett walked away with a net gain of seven to 82 votes to bring her over Werren.

LOUISVILLE




Another downer for Werren.  He wins six of seven Louisville precincts but Hartnett increases her lead by one vote.

MARLBORO TOWNSHIP



Matters are "really" looking dire when a Republican loses a net calculated provisional vote in Marlboro Township.

To the SCPR it is really weird that two of the most Republican areas in Stark County are Marlboro and Tuscarawas townships.

Both are "working class" communities that seem to have little in common with the likes of Jackson and Lake which are two of Stark's financial better off areas of Stark County.

Despite being a sweep for Werren, Hartnett still picked up another one vote increase in Marlboro which put her at 83.

MASSILLON



Whew!  Was Massillon good for Chryssa Hartnett or was Massillon good?

A net gain of 18 votes to bring her total increase to 101.

All over but the shouting, no?

Massillon, if properly worked, is an out-and-out Democratic Party city pretty much the equal of Canton.

Democratic voters may stumble and bumble to the polls and may have trouble getting things straight on voting procedures but enough of them negotiated the terrain so as to give Hartnett a commanding lead.

MYERS LAKE & NAVARRE


in Myers Lake a reprieve for Curt Werren.

He gets Hartnett under 100 with his net two vote pick up of provisionals.

But the reprieve is short lived.

When one considers the different proportions (i.e. number of Massilion voters to Navarre voters), as impressive as Massillon was for Hartnett, Navarre is the champ during this election.

Little Navarre, Stark County, Ohio delivers eight (net) additional votes for Hartnett and thereby helps mightily as Stark's newest judge-elect increased her margin to 107 votes over Curt Werren.

NIMISHILLEN TOWNSHIP




Deja-vu-all-over-again for Curt Werren in Nimishillen Township which surrounds Louisville.

Werren wins six of seven precincts but loses ground to Hartnett:  a net of two votes.

Consequently, Hartnett increased her lead to 109 votes.

NORTH CANTON


It was "high-five" time for the Werren camp with the North Canton counting of provisionals.

Werren picked up 15 votes on Hartnett in the community which he calls home.

Unfortunately for him, the Republican strongholds are already known by the time we get to North Canton.

And, it did so poorly in these area (compared to expectations) that the North Canton boost will turnout to be a "feel encouraged for the moment" phenomenon.

But after North Canton Hartnett's net lead is down to 94.

Not great.  But heading in the right direction.

OSNABURG (EAST CANTON)


Another standoff voting district.

Werren and Hartnet split the precincts and each got six votes and, accordingly, there is no movement in the overall number.

PARIS TOWNSHIP INCLUDING MINERVA



A voting district that was on November 4th was solidly Republican.  Werren wins all five precincts yet only picks up one net vote on Hartnett.

Again, the SCPR thinks that Werren's misfortune (i.e. one would think that winning all precincts would show up in vote gains of provisionals) is wrapped up in the political reality that Democrat or Democrat leaning voters have voting problems more than Republicans that resulted in their casting "to be counted later, if at all" ballots.

Paris/Minerva was Werren's last chance to eat into the Hartnett's lead and, perhaps, provide a spark of hope that a recount of the entire vote might spot an electronic glitch to turn things his way.

But only picking up a net gain of one vote doesn't help that cause at all, no?

PERRY TOWNSHIP


Perry Township was definitely on November 4th Chryssa Hartnett territory.  She won 15 (one tied) of the 19 precincts.

Somewhat odd is that she picked up "only" five votes on Werren.

Hmm?

PIKE TOWNSHIP INCLUDING EAST SPARTA


A much smaller voting district than Perry Township and yet Pike Township produced a net gain of two votes for Hartnett.  And Werren wins this district two precincts to one and over all by a comfortable margins.

When are Democrats and Democratic leaning voters going to learn how to vote correctly (i.e. not having to vote provisionally)?

Just kidding (sort of).

But "hmm," anyway!

PLAIN TOWNSHIP
(STARK'S MOST POPULATED)


Another revealing count that showed that Democrats have the most difficulty voting "trouble" free.

Werren wins Plain 21 precincts to Hartnett's nine (1), but loses 12 votes (net) in the overall count of the provisionals including absentee ballots.

Two of Plain's 30 precincts were very close, but still it begs the point to see that Werren wins comfortably in 19 of the 30 precincts but slides precipitously in the provisional/absentee count.

With the Plain result, it appears to the SCPR that "all hope is lost" for Werren in the overall recount that is to come.

SANDY TOWNSHIP (MAGNOLIA & WAYNESBURG)


This is "icing on the cake" time for the Hartnett campaign.

Three (net gain) votes for Hartnett in Sandy Township.

SUGARCREEK TOWNSHIP (BREWSTER)


And more "icing on the cake" in Sugarcreek Township.  Three (3) more net to the plus votes for Hartnett.

TUSCARAWAS TOWNSHIP


Back to stalemate.

Neither Hartnett nor Werren gain in Tuscarawas Township.

WASHINGTON TOWNSHIP


And Washington wraps of The Stark County Political Report's analysis with still more stalemate.

CONCLUSION

All-in-all "impressive" for the Hartnett campaign, "pathetic" for the Werren campaign.

Though Werren got much better Stark County Republican Party support than Larry Dordea did for his sheriff campaign, Werren still lost.

It is obvious that the message got out to the voting public that Chryssa Hartnett on the basis of her sterling career as a Stark County prosecutor was eminently more qualified that Werren is to be a judge.

Most observers that the SCPR conversed with felt that Werren would prove to be at least "a workmanlike judge."

And that may be the case.

However, when it comes to the administration of justice why would Stark Countians want to chance "workmanlike" when the prospect of "excellence" is at hand with Judge-elect Chryssa Hartnett.

For this prospect, the SCPR thanks:

  • Chyssa Hartnett for "staying the course" and persisting even though twice rejected by a governor who in selecting Werren was playing politics with the administration of justice, and
  • "last, but certainly not least," the Stark County voting public for "rightly" dividing the "political" for the "merited."
Undoubtedly, the Republicans will answer that the Democrat do it too.

That is not an acceptable answer.

To answer that way is to advance a reason that goes to "the heart and soul" of why Stark Countians, Ohioans and American increasing reject the governance that both Democrats and Republicans offer up.

Shame on both of these political parties for "feathering their own nests" at the expense of the interest of the American citizenry.

If we one day lose our treasured democratic-republic, the specific names in Stark County, Ohio and across the land that bleed Democratic Party and Republican Party self-interest politics are the people to specifically "to point the finger of blame at."

Now is the time to name names of the offenders.

For once we lose our cherished institutions of government and politics, IT WILL BE TOO LATE!!!

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And, thank you Stark Countians for coming to the SCPR to get your most complete and thorough analysis of Stark County politics/governance that is to be had in Stark County!

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