FEBRUARY 7, 2018 - PARTISAN FILING DATE DEADLINE

UPDATE:  02/08/2018
Under 48th "The Democratic Side"
See Dem Candidate Lorraine Wilburn YouTube Video Link

UPDATE:  4:40 PM

BREAKING NEWS:  (4:40 PM) WALTERS (AS PREDICTED BY SCPR) WITHDRAWS FROM 48TH OHIO HOUSE SEAT RACE

UPDATE:  10:30 PM

16TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT (NORTH/NE STARK COUNTY)

7TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT (MOST OF STARK COUNTY)

CAIN DOES NOT FILE IN THE 50TH

ORIGINAL BLOG

STARK COUNTY BOARD OF ELECTIONS

Today is the day which closes out any partisan candidate for political office to file or forever hold his/her peace.

Of particular interest to readers of The Stark County Political Report (SCPR) are those running for office who are closest to us, to wit:

• State Representative 48th Ohio House District,
• State Representative 49th Ohio House District,
• State Representative 50th Ohio House District,
• State Senator 29th Ohio Senate District,
• Stark County Commissioner, and
• Stark County Auditor

Oh yes, there is a judicial race.

But other than publish information about the various candidates a la The League of Women Voters there likely will not be whole lot attention payed by the SCPR to it because it is likely to be very boring.

Every once in a while a judicial election contest heats up (e.g. Hartnett v. Werren, because of [in The Report's view] the wide disparity in the qualifications of the candidates]), but generally that is not the case and it appears to the SCPR the quest to replace retiring Democratic judge John Haas will probably like "watching paint dry."

The SCPR in harping on Hartnett's vastly superior qualifications over Werren had a part to play in that judicial face off generating some excitement.

As it turned out, Hartnett pulled off a political stunner in eking out Werren who had been appointed because of his Republican Party connections to Republican governor John Kasich.

What made the Hartnett victory particularly delicious was that the Republicans had arranged for long time friend of the SCPR V. Lee Sinclair to resign before his term ended which resulted in Werren taking office on July 8, 2013 only to be defeated by the upstart Hartnett in November 2014.

The 50th

General Discussion:

This district should definitely be a Republican win come November no matter who the nominee.

However, there is no incumbent and there might be a parallel between the 50th and the 97th Missouri House Seat decided on Tuesday, February 6, 2018 which might be encouraging to whomever comes out of the Democratic side of Ohio's May 8th primary.

Take a look:

The Republican Side

With Christina Hagan opting to give up her seat in the Ohio House (50th District) to run for the Republican nomination in the 16th Congressional District, she is apparently assigned to her brother Josh the task of holding on the the seat as a Hagan entitlement.

Not likely though.  

Look at this graphic on the campaign financing (focusing on the Stark County Republican Party politically powerfuls) of Paris Township trustee Reggie Stoltzfus:

Christina (an extreme religious right politico) is likely to get waxed by mainstream Republican Party  candidate (whose supporters include a number of the Stark County Timken clan members) Anthony Gonzalez 

So she and bro Josh will likely be the last of the aspirational political dynasty that the Hagan clan has tried to put together.

While the SCPR is willing to say in this blog that unless some catastrophe befalls him will be the Republican nominee for the 50th.

One has to wonder what Jacob Urick of Louisville is thinking in getting in this race on the Republican side?

Maybe he knows something that the rest of us do not know?

And by the way, Larry Carver has told the SCPR that he will not be filing.

On the Democratic side it could be a pitched battle as to become the Democratic nominee.

Yet to file (as of this blog) is 2014 candidate Debbie Cain (a former state board of education member (including a stint as president under Democratic governor Ted Strickland).

If she does file, The Report will take a detailed look had she did in Lake Township against Christina Hagan and assess whether or not her being a two time Lake Board of Education member is likely to give her an advantage of being the nominee again.

Her 2014 campaign was a dud.

UPDATE:

CAIN DOES NOT FILE

Though young and politically inexperienced, SCPR contact with Cassie Gabelt and Courtlen Vizzous revealed two highly energized candidates which could pose a threat to Stotzfus if either one becomes the Democrat's nominee.

Not only is Stoltzfus well healed in campaign financing, the 50th is decidedly Republican.  

Something to look at as this campaign plays out is whether or not the Republican brand is becoming tarnished clear down to the state level (as in Virginia in 2017) because of negative reaction to the antics of the president and some of his Republican supporters in Congress.

If there is a further erosion of public taste for Trump brand Republicanism, there could be an opportunity for nearly any Democrat running at the state level.

The 49th

The Democratic Side

Incumbent Democrat should be a shoe-in for former Ward 2 councilman Thomas West in this solidly Democratic district.

One thing that West has demonstrated is that he does indeed have some life in him.

His predecessor Stephen Slesnick seemed to the SCPR to be a sleep walking representative.

However, West, as any Democrat in the Legislature shares, is cursed with being in a huge, huge, huge minority so that Democrats only can do what the in command Republicans allow.

The Republican Side

The Republicans put up a quality candidate in Dan McMasters who lost 57% to 43% to West.

The SCPR thinks that any Republican running for the Ohio legislature or for Congress (the House and the Senate) have to be just a bit leery about the Trump effect.

The 

James Haavisto appears to be of the same quality of McMasters.

But in a highly tilted Democratic district Haavisto has to convince Democrats that if they abandon West to put him in place in the Ohio General Assembly he will not be a "fall into line with the Republican caucus" Republican.

Both the Democratic and Republican caucuses adhere to what is called the "80/20 rule" which translates that if 80% of the caucus decides to vote for or against a measure then ALL of that party agree to fall into line and vote the party line.

Haavisto (the entrepreneur he is) could make West sweat but he has some huge hurdles to overcome

The 48th

The Republican Side

Obviously, long time Republican state legislator W. Scott Oelslager (currently holding the 29th District State Senate seat) is in position for the third time return to the House.  He and term-limited-out state Rep. Kirk Schuring have worked in tandem to defeat a 1992 voter approved term limits (8 consecutive years in either body) by switching back and forth between the Jackson/North Canton house district (whatever the number happens to be as a consequence of redistricting) and the within Stark County senate seat.

However, it may not be so easy for Oelslager this time around.

Jackson Township trustee James N. Walters (excuse me, "the Reverend Jamie Walters") is taking him on.

Walters has been place in Jackson for several terms.

The Report, even though he filed long ago, would not be surprised to see him withdraw in favor of Oelslager under Republican Party pressure.

UPDATE:

The Democratic Side

A newcomer is on tap to become the Democratic nominee.

Lorraine Wilbourn (YouTube Video Link) is a transplant to Stark County, Ohio several years ago from Maryland who was active in Maryland Democratic politics.

As seen in the foregoing graphic, she has put her political activism to work as the chief player in Action Together Stark County.

It would be a phenomenon that would likely capture national attention were she, Cassie Gabelt and Lauren Friedman to end up in the Ohio General Assembly.

"It won't be easy" no doubt for any one of the three to wind and Wilburn and Friedman have the toughest, roughest road to Columbus inasmuch they will have likely have to face Kirk Schuring and Scott Oelslager to get there.

Gabelt doesn't have, if she becomes the Democratic nominee, doesn't have "a piece of cake" but at least she is not facing a veteran legislator.

It appears that the Action Together might just play big in giving Wilburn a fighting chance in the 48th.

The Republican Side

Kirk Schuring, like Oelslager, is the odds on favorite to return to the Ohio General Assembly as state Senator Kirk Schuring.

Schuring is less isolated from Stark County than Oelslager but he seems more comfortable in Columbus than in Jackson Township and North Canton.

Stark County Offices (non-judicial)

Stark County Commissioner

The Republican Side

Republican Janet Weir Creighton is a fixture in countywide Stark County politics.

She started out years ago as county recorder.  Then she migrated to the county auditor's office.

Creighton stepped out of political character (in terms of geography) in running for and winning a term as mayor of Canton (2003).

However, by 2007 Canton was so heavy Democratic that she lost in that year to Democrat William J. Healy, II.

In 2010 as Stark County government faced a loss of confidence on the part of the Stark County public because of what some call Zeiglergate (2009-2011)in which a chief deputy treasurer stole what is thought to be upwards of $3 million in Stark County taxpayer funds and a number of Stark Countians are of the opinion (as was the State of Ohio Auditor Mary Taylor) that Treasurer Gary Zeigler did not exercise sufficient due diligence in putting in place policies, practices, procedures and secure facilities so as to prevented the theft.

In November 2011, she along with then-Democrat Thomas Bernabei (also elected in November, 2010) had restored enough of the lost confidence to persuade Stark Countians to approve a 1/2 cent sales tax designated exclusively for justice system financing.

Re-elected in 2014, she likely will "waltz to victory" this election year.

At the county level, there is no better vote getter than Republican Janet Weir Creighton.

The Democratic Side

Democrat Katherine Baylock in the opinion of the SCPR has no chance whatsoever to defeat Creighton.

God forbid, of course, but anything could happen that would prevent Commissioner Creighton from staying in the race.

Baylock is to be admired for getting into a seemingly impossible contest for her.

No Stark countywide office should ever, ever, ever go uncontested.

But it does happen way too often.

Stark County Auditor

The Democratic Side

The last the SCPR knew Democrat Linda Litman (a sitting Massillon councilwoman [Ward 6]) had strong union connections through her husband.

If such is still the case, countywide organized labor on her side could make things interesting in this political contest.

Litman has been a banker at least since 2004 according to her Facebook page.

On her FB page, the SCPR noticed a reference to former Stark County auditor Kim Perez.  Perez lost to  Republican Alan Harold (the incumbent auditor) in 2010 likely as a consequence of collateral political damage because of his long time political relationship with former treasurer Gary Zeigler.

One has to wonder whether or not Perez is one of the Stark County Democrats encouraging Litman to run against Harold.

The Republican Side

In the SCPR's book, Republican and county auditor Alan Harold is among the very top (competence wise) Stark County public officials.

However, he is too political for the The Report's liking.

He needs to tone down the politics.

Some Stark Countians think Republican Party politics filters into the personnel decisions that Harold makes in the operation of the auditor's office.

Not long ago he made a major hire (highest paid official in the office) for the Information Technology aspect of the auditor's office which did not work out and that hiree is no longer heading up IT.

Currently, he is in process of updating the physical facilities of the office and is working full speed ahead to dramatically improve the county's technology.