TO SERIOUSLY CHALLENGE REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT BOB GIBBS
7TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT - WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF STARK CO
There is absolutely no doubt that Kenneth Harbaugh will be the Democratic nominee to take on Republican Bob Gibbs in the November 6, 2018 general election.
It is a mere formality that May 8, 2018 come and go for Harbaugh to emerge and the nominee.
Take a look at the Democratic candidates campaign finance reports through December 31, 2017:
$433,000,00, more or less, that Harbaugh is harboring and thereby "keeping his 'political resources' powder dry" as he gears up to take on Bob Gibbs in a very, very, very tough district for Democratic candidates at any level.
Incumbent Gibbs has $1.3 millon, more or less, in cash but he has some huge political liabilities that might enable Harbaugh to put the results in doubt come November 6, 2018 and the general election.
Gibbs main liability is President Donald J. Trump.
FiveThirtyEight tracks the voting records of congress-persons.
Since January 5, 2017, Gibbs has voted the Trump position on congressional issues 57 out of some 60 times.
Only on three votes, did he buck Trump.
Of course the more than two to one cash advantage Gibbs over Harbaugh is no small matter. But its is beginning the look like having Trump hung around your neck could be a "political kiss of death" as evidenced by recent elections in which Trump/sympathetic/allied candidates lost in districts that Trump won handily in 2026 as in Ohio's 7th congressional district which includes the vast majority of Stark County.
Moreover, in polling in a generic Democrat/generic Republican context, a Daily Kos graphic shows Democratic candidate earning a 15 point margin.
Like Democrat Harbaugh, Gibbs has no real opposition on May 8th.
In looking over Harbaugh's Stark County contributors for the year ended on December 31, 2018, he is doing very poorly in the largest county within the district. Only four different contributors for a total of $1,848.74.
It appears that Harbaugh is relying on out-of-district/out-of state contributions so far. This could be a factor that will backfire on him in a general election, to wit;
In elections in other states, it does not appear that "out-of-district/out-of-state" money affected the vote all that much.
For it seems that U.S. House/Senate races for sure and to some degree state house/senate races are becoming a referendum on Donald J. Trump.
If that proves to be the case in Ohio come November, Stark County could find itself hearkening back to the day of 2008 when Democrat transplant from Youngstown John Boccieri defeated home grown Kirk Schuring for a seat in the U.S. House (then, the 16th congressional district which in 2006 included "all' of Stark County) on the heels of the district having been represented by Republicans for many, many consecutive years.
The general election is eight months away.
For the May primary, neither Democrat Ken Harbaugh or Republican Bob Gibbs have anything to worry about.
But Gibbs may have plenty to worry about come November!
It is a mere formality that May 8, 2018 come and go for Harbaugh to emerge and the nominee.
Take a look at the Democratic candidates campaign finance reports through December 31, 2017:
$433,000,00, more or less, that Harbaugh is harboring and thereby "keeping his 'political resources' powder dry" as he gears up to take on Bob Gibbs in a very, very, very tough district for Democratic candidates at any level.
Incumbent Gibbs has $1.3 millon, more or less, in cash but he has some huge political liabilities that might enable Harbaugh to put the results in doubt come November 6, 2018 and the general election.
Gibbs main liability is President Donald J. Trump.
FiveThirtyEight tracks the voting records of congress-persons.
Since January 5, 2017, Gibbs has voted the Trump position on congressional issues 57 out of some 60 times.
Only on three votes, did he buck Trump.
Of course the more than two to one cash advantage Gibbs over Harbaugh is no small matter. But its is beginning the look like having Trump hung around your neck could be a "political kiss of death" as evidenced by recent elections in which Trump/sympathetic/allied candidates lost in districts that Trump won handily in 2026 as in Ohio's 7th congressional district which includes the vast majority of Stark County.
Moreover, in polling in a generic Democrat/generic Republican context, a Daily Kos graphic shows Democratic candidate earning a 15 point margin.
Like Democrat Harbaugh, Gibbs has no real opposition on May 8th.
In looking over Harbaugh's Stark County contributors for the year ended on December 31, 2018, he is doing very poorly in the largest county within the district. Only four different contributors for a total of $1,848.74.
It appears that Harbaugh is relying on out-of-district/out-of state contributions so far. This could be a factor that will backfire on him in a general election, to wit;
In elections in other states, it does not appear that "out-of-district/out-of-state" money affected the vote all that much.
For it seems that U.S. House/Senate races for sure and to some degree state house/senate races are becoming a referendum on Donald J. Trump.
If that proves to be the case in Ohio come November, Stark County could find itself hearkening back to the day of 2008 when Democrat transplant from Youngstown John Boccieri defeated home grown Kirk Schuring for a seat in the U.S. House (then, the 16th congressional district which in 2006 included "all' of Stark County) on the heels of the district having been represented by Republicans for many, many consecutive years.
The general election is eight months away.
For the May primary, neither Democrat Ken Harbaugh or Republican Bob Gibbs have anything to worry about.
But Gibbs may have plenty to worry about come November!
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