Saturday, August 11, 2018

AN EARLY (MORNING OF NOV 7, 2018) CHRISTMAS SURPRISE FOR DEMOCRATIC 16TH CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: SUSAN MORAN PALMER?

Updated: Sunday, August 12th

SEE SUSAN MORAN PALMER
SAY
"IF ELECTED"
SHE WILL NOT BE SUPPORTING 
NANCY PELOSI FOR SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE


Nearly all if not all political pundits tracking Ohio's 16th Congressional District primary election race were surprised at the outcome of the Democratic Party side of the May 8th election:



Winner Susan Moran Palmer had to have made a "she's a winner" impression on Stark Countian Connie Rubin in light of this statement by her during the Democratic primary:


To repeat, Democrat Grant Goodrich was expected to walk away from the other four candidates in the five person field.  It appears to The Stark County Political Report that a Grant Goodrich must have developed a case of over confidence.

So it had to be particularly satisfying for Moran Palmer (and gracious on Rubin's part) to have Rubin in attendance last Thursday as they had this "on the issues" exchange:



In the "Year of the Woman Candidate," it is pretty obvious that Goodrich badly miscalculated that the only woman in the Democratic primary had a huge gender advantage which trumped his multiple other advantages.

It is looking more and more that Republican general election candidate Anthony Gonzalez may be on the same track as Goodrich if not in a more accentuated way.  He and 7th Congressional District Republican incumbent Bob Gibbs appear to hiding from anyone (i.e. from the media) who might put them on the spot on the issues.  Both seem bent of putting their personal political welfare about their district's voters right to know their positions on all the issues Congress in now facing and will be dealing with in the next session of Congress.

The more they (i.e. Gibbs, Gonzalez and the like) failure to mix it up with the total voting public in their respective districts goes on; the more justified the SCPR thinks it is that voters consider voting against both on the selective incommunicado factor alone.

The SCPR does not favor "single issue" voting.  But being able to dialogue on accountability with candidates is an essential process if we are to have an informed voting public.

While both Congressional Democrats play partisan politics with the public interest, at least "for now" in light of Republican Devin Nunes's recent recorded fundraiser remarks that Congressional Republicans need to control the House in order to protect Donald J. Trump and some of his and the Republican side of the House Intelligence Committee demonstrate that only a Democratic takeover of the House will place that body in a Constitutionally provided for stance of a co-equal branch of government that operates as a check and balance with the executive and judicial branch of government.


For local voters, Anthony Gonzalez and Bob Gibbs should be put to the test on whether or not they see things Nunes's way.

Voters should require every Republican candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives to state (as the equivalent of Democratic candidates are be asked about Nancy Pelosi) whether or not they would vote "yes" for "no" on the Nunes/Republican Freedom Caucus quest to impeach Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein as the avenue to end the U.S. Justice Department (Robert Mueller) investigation currently underway.

And Democratic candidates should hammer away at Republican opponents who do not adhere to Ohio Republican governor John Kasich test for being an "authentic" Republican (as said to Meet The Press) on Sunday, August 12, to wit:
  • The Republican Party has never been for protectionism,”
  • The Republican Party doesn't support a notion that, that families shouldn't be held together.
  • The Republican Party never supported the notion that we should ring up debt.”
  • The Republican Party has never believed that we should walk away from our allies who have helped us keep the peace since World War II,

Getting back to the Christmas Gift thing, of course we all know that Christmas does not arrive until December 25th.

For Susan Moran Palmer, Christmas Day in terms of her political fortunes her anticipation of Christmas has to be the morning of November 7, 2018.

Perhaps Anthony Gonzalez in how he handles his campaign will be the impetus of making her wish come true?

Here is a SCPR interview of Susan Moran Palmer in an "open to the public" Stark County sited campaign appearance (ignored by The Canton Repository) in which she addresses her obvious uphill struggle to come out a winner on November 6th. (5 min, 35 sec)

For one thing, Moran Palmer says she will not support Nancy Pelosi for Speaker of the House should the Democrats take control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

The SCPR considers this line of attack on nearly every challenging Democrat to incumbent or first time running Republicans to be an out-and-out political "red herring" and not an authentic conversation of what is at stake on the substantive issues of governance depending on which political party controls Congress beginning in 2019.


  • NOTE:  See the entire Moran Palmer Stark County campaign appearance as set up in the Appendix to this blog.  The SCPR has asked the Gonzalez campaign for an opportunity which request has not been responded to as of the publication of this blog.
The fact of the matter is that the American public has very little respect for either Congressional political party apparatus (i.e. the Democratic Congressional Caucus or the Republican Congressional Caucus) no matter who the formally elected leader is.


On March 18th of this election year,  it was apparent that Goodrich had started "counting his chickens" before he won the primary as evidenced by an article his campaign published.


On August 8th, Seth Richardson of Cleveland.com wrote this about the 16th:

Gonzalez appears ears to have a commanding lead in the race, however. He’s raised a boatload of money and has the full backing of the Republican establishment – not to mention his celebrity as a football star.

Susan Moran Palmer simply hasn’t lived up to the task since winning her crowded primary. She’s raised only $21,000 in the reporting period from April to June, and her campaign shows a debt of $37,000 to Palmer.

Here is a graphic obtained by the SCPR from FEC online files on the disparity in campaign finances between Gonzalez and Moran Palmer.


Pretty intimidating for Moran Palmer, no?

But in light of her upset victory over Goodrich, she plows on.

In the 16th, according to the official records of the Ohio secretary of state (as of August 4, 2018) there are:
  • 88,387 "registered" Democrats,
  • 151,753 "registered" Republicans, 
  • 264,545 "registered" non-partisans, and 
  • a smattering of Greens and Libertarians
So there is plenty of "registered voter" room for Palmer to win among those who do not care enough about political party ID to vote in primary elections going  back three years thereby having themselves labeled "non-partisan" by the state election officials.

And, as pointed out elsewhere in this blog; there are enough "I normally vote Republican" dissatisfaction with President Trump and his incessant tweeting with personal attacks on any who disagree with him or who are opposed to the manner in which he comports himself as president that the November 6th general election is deemed by a number of them as an opportunity to vote Democratic as a mid-term election message to the president of disapproval.

Given that Anthony Gonzalez has not "all-in" embraced Donald Trump as has his May 2006 Republican opponent Christina Hagan (lame duck state representative of the 50th Ohio House District [Stark County-based]), for voters to vote no on him as a referendum on President Trump is deemed by many to be unfair.

But such is the reality of politics and Susan Moran Palmer, Kenneth Harbaugh (Ohio's 7th which includes much of Stark County) and Danny O'Connor who is engaged in a "too close to call" special election in Ohio's 12th have an unique opportunity to cash in on what disaffection Ohio voters have for the president.

On Thursday evening, Moran Palmer acknowledged to the two dozen or so assembled at the Stark Democratic Headquarters that she fully understands she is the clear underdog.

What Richardson might not be be accounting for is that Gonzalez seemingly is playing political "hide and go seek" with Democrat Moran Palmer somewhat like the star athlete who plays not as a dominantly situated player but rather in a "not to screw things up" mode and by that very posture provides his competitor an opportunity the challenger might not otherwise have.

The SCPR figures that Ken Harbaugh has about a 50/50 shot to unseat incumbent Republican congressman Bob Gibbs in Ohio's 7th.  A district which Donald Trump won by 30 percentage points in 2016.

Richardson points out that the political demographics in the 16th suggests an opportunity for a Democrat this time around.  And the SCPR would add a "woman-Democrat."

Richardson could be correct in giving the weight he does
  • to Gonzalez's ex-football star status, 
  • to his huge fundraising edge
  • to his connections to the Republican establishment which, of course, includes the Stark County-based Timken family 
    • (which current Congressman Jim Renacci apparently had gerrymandered to have a 16th District spur down deep into Canton proper to pick up a Timken factory/office complex)
and therefore concluding that Gonzalez is going to win easily.

However, there are nearly three months left in this campaign.

Who knows what might happen on the national scene to turn seemingly safe candidates with the kind of association with Donald Trump that Gonzalez into candidates fighting for their political lives?


It appears that Cuyahoga County will be the main battleground of this race inasmuch as the Cuyahoga portion of the 16th is far away the largest registered voter base in the district and is the home of both candidates (Westlake).

Republican Anthony Gonzalez handily defeated Stark Countian Christina Hagan in the GOP May primary.


The Report suspects that Richardson's analysis is way off in that it does not account for his having in Moran Palmer a female who is likely to appeal to all women (especially moderate Republican women and the independent women vote) in the district who are offended by President Trump's misogynous ways and an apparent heartlessness in separating would-be immigrant families.

As the SCPR sees this race (Palmer v. Gonzalez), the Democrat's only chance is to tie Gonzalez to President Donald J. Trump in such a way that enough Republicans and independents opt to vote for Moran Palmer as a way of sending a message to the President that to them "character counts" and that he is president and not emperor and therefore accountable to the U.S. Constitution and the people as ratifiers of the Constitution.

In the 2018 Gonzalez/Moran Palmer faceoff, when will Christmas be?

An early Christmas morning of November 7th with Susan Moran Palmer celebrating a Anthony Gonzalez gift of her being elected 16th Congressional District congresswoman?

APPENDIX

The "entire" SCPR videotaped Susan Moran Palmer campaign appearance in Stark County on August 9, 2018.



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