STARK COUNTY: A "BELLWETHER" OF THE COMING "BLUE WAVE?"

UPDATED:  FRIDAY THE 14TH - 08:30 AM

SEPTEMBER 5TH "FOCUS GROUP" STUDY 

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OTHER DATA STRONGLY SUGGESTS SO!
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LINK to Video
Harbaugh Challenges 7th District Congressman Bob Gibbs
to 
Joint Public Appearance

Not all that long ago Stark County and Ohio were deemed by many political analysts to be a political bellwether on an impending outcome of trends in election results.

In September, 2016, The Stark County Political Report captured University of Virginia Sabato Center for Applied Politics polling expert Kyle Kondik on video talking about whether or not Ohio was a bellwether on the 2016 presidential election.

In 2016 Donald Trump won the presidency in the electoral college whereas his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton bested in in the popular vote by some 3 million votes.

And Trump won Ohio by 8.1% and Stark County 17.3%.

So who would have figured that by September 13, 2018 Trump would have become a negative factor overall across the nation and, yes, Ohio overall across the 88 counties and, perhaps, even in Stark County?

Consequently, the SCPR believes that there likely is coming a "blue wave" in terms of November 6th election results in Ohio and Stark County.

And The Stark County Political Report is not alone in seeing potentially large consequences right here in Stark County.

On September 5, 2018 Axios made a trip to Stark County, to wit:

People who voted for Barack Obama and then Donald Trump still want the change they voted for in 2016 — and they're open to giving Democrats a chance.

Why it matters: These are the quintessential swing voters who can decide an election. Last week I traveled to Canton, Ohio, to sit in on an Engagious focus group of six Obama-Trump voters and six Mitt Romney-Hillary Clinton voters. Turns out they're not too happy, and their dissatisfaction could benefit Democrats in the 2018 midterm elections.

(LINK to entire article)

And here is a pdf file in which Engagious publishes a detailed report on the Stark County Trump/Obama/Clinton/Romney focus group.

The report clearly made the point that these representative voters still want (as most of us do) change in the manner in which politics/governance is done.

But it becomes clearer in every day that passes since November 7, 2016 that Donald Trump is not the change that many of us want.

So now it appears that there is a political backlash awaiting a significant part of that group of politicians who embraced the politics of the president.

How individual Republican candidates fare likely will be the degree to which the candidate embraces Donald Trump.

For instance, if Christina Hagan (currently a Republican state representative, the 50th Ohio House District located wholly within Stark County) had been selected as the 16th Congressional District candidate in the May, 2018 Republican primary; she would be a political casualty of her over-the-top Trumpism this November.

Even though he has been cautiously supportive in his relationship with the president, the nominee Anthony Gonzalez (the odds on favorite to defeat Democratic challenger Susan Moran Palmer) has to be worried that he might get caught up what appears to be a wide spreading voter "I can't cast a vote of no-confidence in President Trump, but I can send a message to him in voting for the Democratic candidate" sentiment that seems to be engulfing much of the nation.

However, much more vulnerable in the estimate of the SCPR is incumbent  7th District  (which includes most of Stark County including Canton) Republican congressman Bob Gibbs who to even a greater degree that Gonzalez defends President Trump and seems to be hiding from the voters in this election cycle.

Democrat Ken Harbaugh in contrast is all over the 7th with town halls and many other venues throughout the district with his "country over party" campaign theme.

Harbaugh is trying his best to "smoke Gibbs out" in to a public joint appearance so that 7th District voters can do a "one-on-one" comparison.

Gibbs appears to the SCPR to have very limited communication skills and likely is going to take his chances of surviving a potential "blue wave" and will likely steadfastly avoid a joint appearance with Harbaugh or do interviews with the likes of the SCPR.

Gibbs obviously "canned" response (in the video segment below)  of  "the voters already know me is a "confession and avoidance" of allowing voters to make a direct comparision.



It is looking more and more like Gibbs might live to "rue the day" he decided to go run from Harbaugh, the voters and the media that might ask him telling questions.

HIGHLIGHTING ADDED

The biggest political casualty in the upcoming general election, it appears, will be current 16th Congressional District Jim Renacci who is challenging Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown.

(Highlighting Added)

Former Massachusetts congressman "Tip" O'Neill is generally credited with coining the phrase "All politics is local," and, the SCPR agrees that as one goes down the scale from federal offices to state offices to county and lower level offices that elections are less effected by national political factors including whether or not the overall electorate approves of the presidents performance in office. The Report believes 2018 may well be the exception to the rule and even some local candidates might get caught up a "blue wave" and lose in what normally would be a more favorable political environment to them.

At the state level, the SCPR thinks that a "blue wave" could take down a number of statewide candidates the foremost of whom might be Mike DeWine, an Ohio Republican stalwart, who is running for governor against Democrat Richard Cordray.

The Report thinks DeWine has taken a judicious stance in his political closeness to Trump and just might escape being swallowed up in an anti-Trump avalanche.

One of the more interesting races other than the gubernatorial race is the secretary of state race between Democrat Kathleen Clyde of nearby Portage County (75th Ohio House District) and Republican Frank LaRose (27th Ohio Senate District) of nearby Summit County.   Local Stark County clerk of courts Lou Giavasis is a strong supper of Clyde.

LaRose attended President Trump's August 24th visit to Columbus as the keynote speaker at the annual Republican state party dinner.  However, a brief SCPR perusal of LaRose's Facebook page shows "no mention" of President Donald Trump.

Interesting no?

At the Stark County level sees a "blue wave," if it develops perhaps causing difficulties to Republican 50th District Ohio House candidate Reggie Stoltzfus.

Stoltz does have an impressive list of Stark County "leading" Republicans supporting his campaign.  However, likely, he could take a political "mulligan," he rather not be seen with former Ohio Speaker of the House Cliff Rosenberger who is reportedly under investigation by the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

The SCPR sees Stoltzfus as a vast improvement over Christina Hagan (the current representative) at least in willingness to converse with the likes of this blogger and it would be a heavy irony for him to lose to Democratic candidate Cassie Gabelt whom it appears to The Report to not be putting on much of a campaign.

Stoltzfus problem is that a neophyte candidate over larger that Paris Township parts of Stark County does have a voter I.D. problem which of course Gabelt also has.

However, a "blue wave" could make a otherwise slam dunk for Stoltzfus running in a highly gerrymandered Republican district in to a competitive race.

If he rolls up numbers in this election that parallel Hagan results, then he will have shown himself to have been effective campaigner notwithstanding a less than ideal political environment.

In the 29th (Republican Kirk Schuring v. Lauren Friedman, a U.S. Naval Academy grad) House Senat District and the 48th (Democrat Lorraine Wilburn v. Scott Oelslager) Senate District there likely is to be a minimal "blue wave" (if one develops) effect on the outcome.

Both Friedman and Wilburn (as the SCPR believes is a contrast to the Gabelt campaign) appear to be fighting the good fight against overwhelming political odds.

Between them, Schuring (whose wife Darlene was hired by The Repository, [Will Friedman get a fair endorsement interview at the hand of The Rep editors) and Oelslager have served some 60 years in the Ohio General Assembly and having discovered that they can switch House to Senate and Senate to House districts to overcome Ohio's term limits law (which both supported when it became law) have done so even though in the assessment of the SCPR they have been relatively ineffective in bringing the bacon home to Stark County

• for example:  
• stopping draconian cuts to local government funding by state government
• participating in "unfunded mandates" on county, city, township and village governments foisted on these local governments over the decades they have served in the Ohio General Assembly and,
• allow "for profit" charter schools like ECOT (an online charter school) to get at least $1 billion in Ohio taxpayer provided revenue without producing quality education results which resulted in ECOT going belly up in January of this year owing Ohioans (according to the Ohio Supreme Court) about $80 million,
• Oelslager refusing to meet with Lorraine Wilburn which, she says, is a primary motivation in running for office,
• He also, a number of years ago, refused to come to Canton to meet with Canton City Council members on the issue of draconian state of Ohio funding cuts to local government,

• Note:  Both Oelslager and Schuring have received campaign contributions from ECOG connected contributions

Another Stark County down ballot race which could produce an upset might be the Stark County auditor's race:  Democrat Linda Litman challenging incumbent Republican Alan Harold.

An outpouring of Democratic and independent, independent leaning voters to vote Democratic as a message to President Trump might help Linda Litman (currently Ward 6 councilwoman in Massillon) might turn what some think is otherwise a tight race into a victory for Litman.

Readers ought to read this blog by the SCPR for background as to why this might be "other than the 'blue wave' factor" tight race.

A number of Stark County "Republican" elected officials are offended by what they term as being Harold's arrogance.

While the SCPR cannot imagine that these folks will not vote for Harold, The Report can see them sitting on their hands and not offering much help to his candidacy.

Once pre-general-election campaign finance reports become available, one should be able to learn more of how much of this fellow-Republican-office-holding disaffection might impact Harold's chances for re-election.

Harold has been a quality auditor but what has been alleged and which the SCPR believes as Harold playing a role (which he categorically denies) in Litman losing her banking job with Harold's former employer Huntington Bank is outrageous and doubly so because Harold has told the SCPR years ago that he had to drop out of the Stark County treasurer's race in 2008 because of political pressure brought to bear on Huntington when Harold worked there because of a treasurer's authority as to where county funds get placed to earn interest for the taxpayers.

At least in Harold's treasury position quest there was some rationale for why the pressure was brought to bear.

County auditor?

What possible conflict in interest could there be in Litman running.

Litman is the darling of organized labor in Stark County.  Her husband is an official with the Iron Workers.

The word is that to the degree organized labor has any political muscle in Stark County politics, it will all be channeled to helping Litman take down Harold.

The SCPR thinks with various polls (averaging right now 50% to 38% Democratic candidate leaning) suggesting a "blue wave" come November, an anti-Trump effect could bode political ill for any Republican candidate running for office in 2018.

As the results come in the early to late evening hours on November 6th, the could prove to be spellbinding and a disaster for Republican candidates.