The biggest winner on November 6, 2018 in Ohio is likely to be incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown, so The Stark County Political Report projects.
Brown will win Stark County handily across Ohio except in reddest of Ohio's "red counties" where President Donald J. Trump plays best and even in those counties Wadsworth Republican and Brown challenger Jim Renacci (currently congressman in the 16th congressional district which includes a portion of Stark County).
If there is an upset on Tuesday, the 6th, it will come at the expense of sitting U.S.7th Congressional District (which includes most of Stark County) Congressman Bob Gibbs.
The Stark County Political Report's "upset special," if it materializes, will send Democrat "Country Over Party" Ken Harbaugh to the U.S. Congress.
The foregoing have amply demonstrated that they are not "Country/State/Stark County Over Party" types.
In the 16th Congressional District political neophytes Republican Anthony Gonzalez and Democrat Susan Moran Palmer are squaring off.
This may well turn out to be a "Blue Wave" year for Democratic candidates across the county but not in the 16th. Highly gerrymandered Republican is the 16th. Also, Moran has the misfortune to be running against one of the most moderate Republican candidates for congressional office and she has been badly out-fund-raised.
Mark this one up for Anthony Gonzalez.
The race that is exciting Ohioans statewide is the gubernatorial contest between Democrat Richard Cordary and Mike DeWine.
Real Clear Politics "average of polls" as of October 8th showed Cordray with a slight lead.
The SCPR thinks that it is plausible that Cordray will eke out a win statewide. However, The Report thinks DeWine will win in Stark County largely due to the efforts of Republican Stark County commissioner Janet Creighton (regional DeWine chairperson) and Republican Stark County treasurer Alex Zumbar (Stark County chairperson).
Other down ticket statewide races (attorney general, state treasurer, state auditor, et cetera) will likely mirror the outcome of the DeWine/Cordray face-off except the SCPR does not think any of the Republican candidates have the odds of winning Stark County as does DeWine.
Of the "slam dunk" variety in Stark County are the following:
Stark County Republican commissioner over Democrat Katherine Baylock.
Baylock has surprised in a prior race she has run for county commissioner She bested former commissioner Pete Ferguson in a contested Democratic primary in 2016 with former Democratic Stephen Slesnick coming out the winner. Slesnick lost to Republican Bill Smith in the general election.
Running against Pete Ferguson, Kevin Fisher and Stephen Slesnick is one thing.
But running against one of Stark County most vote popular Republican (Creighton) is quite another.
Republican Scott Oelslager in his bid to return to the Ohio House (the 48th) handily defeats Democrat Lorraine Willburn.
As does Republican Kirk Schuring in his bid to return to the Ohio Senate being challenged by Democrat Lauren Friedman.
Democrat Cassie Gabelt who appears to have put on no campaign at all.
Gabelt's anemic effort is in contrast to Friedman and Wilburn who have worked hard but whom the SCPR face insurmountable odds in contesting Schuring (25 years in the OGA) and Oelslager (35 years in the OGA).
There is promise for Wilburn and Friedman going forward if they start laying the groundwork for a "next-time-around" in 2020 and 2024, respectively.
There is absolutely no way that either Schuring or Oelslager can be defeated by campaigns put together some six months to a year out from the election.
The 50th Ohio race has to be a disappointment for Stark's "organized" Democrats. Of all the gerrymandered Republican seats that might have been competitive this election cycle, it should have been in the 50th.
Incumbent Republican Christina Hagan got way "too big for her 'political' britches" in deciding to abandon the 50th (see was eligible to run for one more term before being term-limited-out) to run in the 16th Congressional District.
Paris Township trustee Reggie Stoltzfus took full advantage of Hagan's hubris and from the get-go (as a "for partisan office" first time candidate) and put together the most impressive "first-time-out" that the SCPR has seen in nearly 40 years of this blogger closely following Stark County politics.
Stoltzfus to win "in a walk over Gabelt" notwithstanding that 2018 might not be a good time for a "first-time-out" Republican to be running in what many political pundits think will be a "Blue Wave" year over much of the country including Ohio.
In Ohio's 49th House District, Democrat Tom West should win comfortably over Republican James Haavisto.
Haavisto has made West work this time around. When West was elected in 2016 his opponent was a well-respected but unimaginative Republican candidate.
If he does not defeat West, he in a negative way can thank the OGA Republican caucuses for jamming a concentration of registered Democrats as they gerrymandered Ohio's legislative districts to minimize the likelihood of Democratic victories. A clear manifestation of the Republican placing political party interests over the interests of the public in have competitive elections.
If Democratic voters listen to Haavisto closely, he clearly carries a message that would not appeal to many if not most Democratic voters.
His core message as interpreted by the SCPR is: "I pulled myself of by the bootstraps" and "you can too" and "I am going to do all I can, if elected, to dismantle government programs designed to help everyday Ohioans."
Tom West is the total opposite. He has spent years as a social worker and his highly committed to using the tools of government as a "safety net" for middle class and below voters who happen onto hard times.
In the 49th, it is difficult for The Report to "wrap arms" around the Haavisto candidacy being viable in terms of an expectation that he is likely to win.
However, the SCPR applauds Haavisto for the energy and thoroughness of his campaign. He stands out as the very best example of what emerging, challenging campaign ought to look like.
Defeating West is not a hill that the SCPR thinks Haavisto can climb.
Somewhat of a surprise is the emergence of Democrat Natalie Haupt as a replacement for, by force of Ohio law (upon reaching 70, judges in Ohio cannot run for re-election), John Haas.
On the ballot this time for the last time as a judicial candidate are Scott Gwin (a Democrat) and John Wise (a Republican) because of the age factor.
Haupt did have a tough primary election fight.
But the SCPR projects that she will easily defeat Republican James Matthews.
In other races within Stark County, Democrat Linda Litman (Democrat Ward 6 councilwoman in Massillon) will make things interesting for Alan Harrold in his quest to remain as Stark County auditor.
The SCPR does think that Litman (with staunch "organized labor" campaign worker/financial support) can make Harold sweat.
By and large Harold has been a first-rate auditor. However, he seems to be afflicted with an arrogance (not quite as bad as Scott Oelslager's) that is even turning key Stark County Republican leaders against him.
Moreover, the SCPR figures that Harold lied to this blogger in maintaining that he had nothing to do with Litman losing her job at Huntington Bank because of a bank policy regarding employees running for office.
Harold himself was a victim in 2008 of the Huntington policy as he endeavored to run for Stark County treasurer (which, in fact, could be a "conflict-in-interest" situation). The auditor's position presents "no" conflict for Litman had she remained a Huntington employee while running for the auditor's position, if consequently elected.
Litman's main problem has to do with her maintaining at a recent Mount Union University candidates' forum in the view of the SCPR is her assertion that if elected she wants to return to the methods used by former Democratic Stark County auditor Kim Perez.
This raises the question: If elected, is Kim Perez going to be the de facto county auditor, while Litman learns the ropes of being auditor?
So there you have it folks, The Stark County Political Report projections on the 2018 November general election!
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