REVISION & UPDATE: STARK COUNTY'S TOP FOUR RACES - 2010

 

For Stark County only, the Stark County Political Report believes that the four listed in the graphic above will prove to be the most interesting and, perhaps, the most significant.

This blog is a revision of one published on February 18th.  Why a revision?  For a couple of reasons.

First, Richard Reinbold has made himself uncompetitve in the 29th Ohio Senate race by eschewing PAC money.  The saying is that "money is the mother's milk of politics."  Reinbold's action is admirable, but going up against the well-established Scott Oelslager is not a race one takes on without mucho, mucho campaign funds.

The SCPR is told that the Ohio Senate Democratic Caucus has no money to put into the Reinbold effort.  And, The Report has learned, Reinbold was not the first choice anyway.  Both county Auditor Kim Perez and Plain Township Trustee Louis Giavasis were preferred over Reinbold to make the run at Oelslager.

 

As if the Senate Democrats are in a position to prefer anyone.  The Caucus is a pathetic excuse for an organized political entity.  Senate minority leader Capri Cafaro has proved to be an ineffective leader.

Apparently, Reinbold is looking to surprise us all and defeat Oelslager by being the unconventional candidate and thereby appeal to an electorate that seems to be tiring of "politics as usual."

The SCPR wishes him well, but The Report does not think this gambit will work to generate interest among Stark County voters.  Moreover, Reinbold by force of his personality does not generate excitement.  Couple having no money with a dull personality and you have a contest that loses its place in the SCPR top four Stark County races for 2010.

Second, The Report's listing of the Meeks/Creighton face-off as the number one attention getter in Stark County politics this year needs a little more explanation.

While the SCPR believes the Snitchler/Bosley match up will be the closest race this fall (likely to remain too close for the SCPR to call right up to election day), its intensity of interest will be for folks like yours truly, the pols in Columbus and, of course, the voters of the 50th Ohio House district.  Not as much in other parts of Stark County which also has the 51st district (Haines [Democrat] v. Schuring [Republican]) and the 52nd (Slesnick [Democrat] v. Secrest [Republican]).

The Meeks/Creighton square-off because the commissioner election will be on the ballot in every Stark County precinct.  

For the foregoing reasons, the SCPR thinks Meeks/Creighton is the top race.

MEEKS/CREIGHTON

Former Canton mayor Janet Creighton entering this field for the full-term commissioner seat being vacated by Commissioner Todd Bosley made this contest #1 on the SCPR's list.  Another factor in bringing this contest to the #1 ranking is that all of Stark County will be voting whereas on the Snitchler/Bosley match-up; only about 1/3rd of Stark County will be voting.

Steve Meeks was appointed by the Stark County Democratic Central Committee to the seat formerly held by Tom Harmon.  But Meeks wants no part of coming up for re-election in two years.  The next two years may be the most difficult that Stark County (in the government sense) has ever faced.  

Why?

Because there is no money and there is not going to be any new money for the foreseeable future. Maybe, and only maybe, there might be a renewal of the existing sales tax.  

How will this impact running for commissioner in 2012 for an incumbent?

This way.

The commissioners will have to make draconian cuts in county services to Stark Countians.  And the cuts are not going to set well.  The public really does expect the commissioners to take care of the entire county with a few fishes and loaves.  When the manna from Heaven stops raining, then the grumbling will start and in the end sitting commissioners will be the butt of citizen anger.

So 2012 is not a time to be running for re-election.  That's why Meeks ducked out of the two years left on his term for the four years that Commissioner Bosley would have stood for if he had not decided to run for state representative (the 50th).

Meeks might have made an unwise choice.  Had he stayed in the two-year term race, he would have won hands down as former Canton law director, city councilman, chief of staff and service director (Healy administration) will.  However, Bernabei likely just plans to be a commissioner for two years to do what he can to help straighten Stark County finances out and then move on with his life.

Another thing that Meeks had planned on was who his opponent would be on the full term.

Undoubtedly, his jaw dropped when he saw that former Canton mayor and countywide officeholder Janet Creighton had taken out a petition.

And so it should.

It is pretty clear to the SCPR that Meeks cannot defeat Creighton and that he will be giving up his commissioner's seat come December 31, 2010. 

A Creighton victory will be good for Stark County.  Democrats have had a stranglehold over countywide offices for a number of years now.  Such has turned out to be a bad trip for the county.

BOSLEY/SNITCHLER

Number 2 on the SCPR list.  

Why?

Because this seat is a Republican gerrymandered one designed to keep a "safe district" Republican in the Ohio House.  The gerrymandering sheltered the lazy, politically inept John Hagan for a full 8 years in the House.  Hagan proved his political ineptness when - notwithstanding his long run as a Stark County politician -  he lost to political novice Pete Ferguson over a 2008 commissioners position in a politically competitive environment.

However, with the entry of Todd Bosley into the 50th Ohio House district seat, there is a chance that the Republican "fix" will become unfixed.

Had he not been the leading architect for the imposing of a 0.50 of a percent countywide sales/use tax increase in December, 2008, Bosley likely would be a shoe-in to win the 50th.

Because he did the "politically" wrong thing to do, he is reduced in the SCPR's opinion to having a chance to win the 50th.

Bosley will be hammering away at Snitchler as being a "do-nothing," "right-wing ideologue" state representative. Moreover, Snitchler's political romance with the right wing of Stark County Republicans (the teabaggers) could end up costing him the election.  He spoke at the original teabagger event on April 15, 2009 and is scheduled to speak once again at a teabagger event in Navarre on June 27th.

Snitchler, on the other hand, will - one way or another - play to the imposed tax as indicating that Bosley will be a "tax and spend" Democrat if he were to be sent to Columbus.  The Report has been told that "Vote No Increased Taxes" member Tom Marcelli (Bethlehem Township - the home of Navarre) will be working on the Snitchler campaign.  

This could be a good development for Snitchler.  He could appear to be taking the "above it all" road while letting the likes of Marcelli and his "Vote No" friends hammer Bosley on the imposed tax.  If the Vote Nos can turn a substantial portion of the 60 plus percent of "no" voting Stark Countians on the retention of the tax into Snitchler voters,  such could be a difference-maker positive for Snitchler.

One other important note about the outcome of Bosley/Snitchler.

Could a loss by either be the end of a a Stark County political career?

BOCCIERI/RENACCI

This race will be won or lost in Stark County, Although the 16th congressional district includes Wayne County and parts of Medina and Ashland, Stark will dominate.

Jim Renacci has made a huge blunder in his campaign.  He has drifted to the right of the Republican Party.  In order to win in the 16th, one needs to be at least "right, center."  

The reason that three (Stark, Medina and Wayne) of the four county Republican chairmen endorsed Renacci in the Republican primary was that he was perceived to be the most moderate and therefore the most capable of winning in November.  Otherwise, the person to get behind would have been Matt Miller of Ashland County who gave Ralph Regula and Kirk Schuring (2008) all they wanted in terms of competition for the Republican nomination.

The SCPR expected Renacci to be way more moderate in his views than Miller, Smith and Schiffer.  But he wasn't.  Everything that The Report saw coming out of the Renacci camp was:  "How can I appeal to the Miller and Schiffer" crowd.  

Jim Rennaci should be going nowhere near the Navarre teabagger event scheduled for June 27th.  But he is.  And his doing so will help solidify in the mind of Stark Countians that Renacci is a Republican right type candidate.

Very few, if any, right wing voters are going to vote for incumbent Congressman John Boccieri (Democrat - Alliance).  However, Boccieri is a conservative Democrat who will play well in the district.  Especially well in the Stark County part of the district.

So for Reanacci to court the teabaggers is like preaching to the choir.  And the choir will vote for him.  There are just not enough of them in the 16th to elect him.

There is plenty for Renacci to go after Boccieri on:  Flip-flopping just to name one (cap and trade as well as healthcare).  However, he will be so hung up on the right wing lunacy that he, in critiquing Boccieri, will sound likes Michele Bachman of Minnesota.  The right wing message will not play in most of Stark County.

Also, in this election for Stark Countians, Renacci is the outsider.  Boccieri is a Stark Countian for two years now.  Rennacci is not even a native Ohioan.  Rather a Pennsylvainian.  So he will not be able to whip up the winds of discontent on Boccieri being a capetbagger.  No much of a loss for Renacci, as we all saw how much of a non-issue that was with voters for Schuring in 2008.

By the way, if Kirk Schuring were running this time around, he would do much better in Stark County and, perhaps, be able to eke out a narrow victory.

Even so (Renacci drifting to the political right), Boccieri/Renacci will be a competitive race.  Boccieri will not win by the roughly 10% (as predicted early on by the SCPR) he won by against Stark Countian Kirk Schuring.  More like about three or four percentage points this time around.

This is not a Democratic year for congressional races.  That Boccieri wins in an off year for Democrats means that he could be on his way to being a long-term congressman from Ohio's 16th congressional district.

 PEREZ/HAROLD

The main question here is:  Will Alan Harold stay in this race?

Two years ago he was slated to run against the now-beleaguered Gary Zeigler (Stark County treasurer).  But he didn't.  The "story on the street" is that Harold's employer asked him to step aside after high-level state Democrats complained about Harold's candidacy to Huntington.

The SCPR asked Harold about this story.  His response:  "No comment."

Harold's whole handing of the Zeigler thing leads The Report to believe that Harold has no stomach for "down and dirty" politics.

And if he gets queasy about roughhouse politics, taking on Stark County auditor Kim Perez is not the place to be in a run for political office.

Although somewhat of a maverick in Stark County Democratic politics with his own political base (much like Commissioner Todd Bosley), he is a political power broker and likely will teach Harold a political lesson that Harold will not forget for years.

Harold will learn that taking on Perez is not like showing up at a Congressman John Boccieri campaign event (at the Sunoco station on Tuscarawas) with a sign in hand and yelling at the top of one's lungs.

Perhaps, in the light of the BP Gulf of Mexico massive oil leak, Harold would like to do an encore performance of his "drill, baby, drill" chant at the Sunoco station?

And it is not like running for a place on the Stark County Educational Service Center (formerly known as the Stark County Board of Education).

Apparently, the board candidacy was a "dry run" for taking on Perez.  Well, if Harold duplicates that effort in his vying with Perez, he will be looking wistfully at his numbers achieved in the board race (he narrowly lost).

Another campaign like that one will leave him a distant, distant second in a two-man race!

STARK CAN HAVE A FIX TO THE 9-1-1 SYSTEM WITHIN 6 MONTHS: WHY WOULD ANYONE PLAY POLITICS WITH STARK COUNTY SAFETY ISSUES?

Towards the end of last week, the SCPR got a telephone call from a county official saying that Stark County's fire chiefs had met recently and voted to reject Nimishillen Fire Chief Rich Peterson's "alternative" to centralized, countywide 9-1-1 dispatch.

The official said that the information had come from Stark County Council of Governments (SCOG) Governance Committee chair Randy Gonzalez.

The Report immediately began contacting alternative sources for confirmation or disaffirmation of the reported Gonzalez read.

This is what yours truly has learned.

North Canton Fire Chief John Bacon told the SCPR that the Peterson Plan (which he now calls the Fire Chiefs' Plan) is the plan that  Stark's fire chiefs will present to the Technical Advisory Committee of SCOG at its January 22nd meeting.

Bacon said that not only did the fire chiefs not reject Peterson's alternative, but that they voted "unanimously" to adopt the plan as their own.

One of the leading proponents of a centralized, countywide Plan; namely, Ted Heck, fire chief in Gonzalez's home area (Gonzalez is the elected fiscal officer in Jackson), voted in favor of the alternative plan.

Bacon said that the vote was not anti-centralized, countywide dispatch, but that the Peterson Plan is doable within six  months whereas the Gonzalez Plan (a SCPR phrase coined by The Report as a shorthand reference to the centralized, countywide plan) will not be up and running for two years.

The fire chiefs believe they are putting community safety first by doing the fix now (within six months) and not delaying the project for up to two years.

The Peterson plan, according to Bacon, can be done with the money currently available to support 9-1-1 (the cellphone surcharge and the small property tax levy) and no money collected from the commissioner  "imposed" sales/use tax (December, 2008) will be needed.  However, the Peterson Plan does not include all first reponders having 800 megahertz radios.

Bacon does not deny that there may be a turf issue involved in the Peterson Plan for the benefit of Peterson and Nimishillen Township trustees.  However, he said that he was willing to abide that possibility because he feels that the alternative, in terms of the timing issue, puts the safety of Stark Countians first.

The SCPR maintains that the Peterson/Nimishillen self-interest is a primary motivation for Peterson's Plan.  The Report accepts Bacon's take that parochial interests can be accepted when "the greater county good" is also achieved contemporaneously.

More troublesome to the SCPR are the positions of Commissioner Bosley and Governance Committee chair Gonzalez.

Why were they so set on going centralized and countywide dispatch in "one fell swoop?"

Why not get the fixes done immediatley within the concepts of four to five dispatch centers with up-to-date equipment which makes calling 9-1-1 seamless to callers and which will be state-of-the-art in terms of identifying locations of cellphone callers?

The Report suspects that if there are politics involved, it is coming more likely from the commissioners' office and from Gonzalez than from the professional emergency services folks.

A main ingredient in Bosley becoming commissioner was his embracing of Peterson's Plan , as a central aspect of his campaign, when he decided to take on incumbent Republican county commissioner Richard Regula in 2006.

Along the way Bosley got off of the Peterson Plan and bought into the Gonzalez Plan.

It was Commissioner Bosley who conceived the idea of imposing the 0.50 percent increase in the sales/use tax and sold fellow commissioners Republican Jane Vignos (since retired) and Democrat Tom Harmon (since resigned) on the idea.  In December, 2008 the commissioners imposed the tax.

A major part of the tax was splitting the revenue with the county's general fund.  County administrator Mike Hanke has been saying for some time now that substantial cuts in county department budgets would be in the offing by 2011, if additional revenues were not found.  In fact, the county is looking at a average of 3.5% cuts (on average) across Stark County government dependent on general fund monies.

The SCPR believes that Bosley saw the imposed tax as being a way to further his future political ambitions (i.e. the "fixer" of  9-1-1 is a natural progression from his 2006 campaign) and, at the same time, he could make his future as county commissioner financially viable by bringing additional funds in to county general fund coffers.

Gonzalez has many government roles in Stark County, one of which is being Stark County Democratic Party chairman.

As readers know, the SCPR is not wild about party chairpersons having a government role.  The Report repeatedly expressed a sour attitude about John Ferrero, county prosecutor, having been Stark County Democratic party chairman before becoming prosecutor.

Party chairpersons are about "political power" and what it can do to enhance them  and their constituents (candidates for office and elected officials).  In the opinion of the SCPR, Gonzalez and "his many political irons in the fire, is not the best person to be heading up the Governance Committee effort.  It should be someone who is not so ensconced in Stark County politics.

Gonzalez and Bosley have already locked horns over who should be the 9-1-1 project manager.  Bosley fought long and hard to make Nimishillen Fire Chief Rich Peterson that person.  In a classic and ironical "politics makes strange bedfellows" twist; it is interesting that Peterson and Bosley - once bosom buddies -  are now squaring off on 9-1-1.

Politics have a way of working themselves out (i.e. "shifting political alliances), and longer term Stark County may well indeed get over the politics of fixing 9-1-1 and eventually get to the Gonzalez Plan.

Bacon is hopeful such will be the case.

One lingering issue is, if the Technical Advisory Committee accepts the chiefs' recommendation, what to do with the money collected for the Gonzalez Plan from the imposed tax?

Bosley has already suffered one defeat on this issue.

While Harmon was still a commissioner, he brought up for a vote what to do with the monies collected post-voter rejection of retaining the tax.

The decision:  put it into a "stabilization fund (aka a "rainy day fund").   Administrator Hanke had asked the commissioners  for guidance on the tax revenues because the formulation of the 2010 budget is underway and Hanke and his fellow administrators needed a financial basis on which to project cuts to county departments. 

Bosley vigorously objected.  He insisted that half the money go towards implementing the Gonzalez Plan.

By the way, Hanke tells the SCPR that the "rainy day fund" could reach $6 to 7 million  before the county needs to dip into it come 2011.

Some final notes:

The SCPR was not well taken with the "Vote No Increased Taxes Committee."   Now The Report has somewhat of a changed look at the work the Committee did in convincing Stark Countians not to retain the imposed tax.

The Committee did create conditions for the Peterson Plan to see the light of day and the SCPR recognizes the Committee for this contribution of time and space for a reconsideration of how and on what timetable Stark County fixes 9-1-1.

However, a big negative remains.  Stark County does indeed need new money beginning in 2011 for its general fund.

One more thing.

If the Technical Advisory Committee accepts the Peterson (err) Fire Chiefs' Plan, what will come of the money being held for the Gonzalez Plan implementation?

Bacon says that is for the politicians (Bosley, Ferguson and Meeks) to figure out.

The SCPR does believe that the commissioners and Governance Committee chairman Gonzalez care about the safety of Stark Countians.

However, the SCPR trusts the fire chiefs, police chiefs and emergency medical chiefs to filter out the politics inherent in the situation  more effectively than folks running for elective office.