CONGRESSMAN BOB GIBBS WORRIES ABOUT 30 MILLION WHO WILL REMAIN "UNCOVERED" BY HEALTH CARE AFTER "OBAMA CARE IS FULLY IMPLEMENTED IN 2016?

On January 19, 2011, Republican congressman Bob Gibbs voted for the very first time against "Obamacare" (officially named the Affordable Care Act).

The vote came fresh off the heels of his having defeated Democratic incumbent congressman Zack Space in the 18th District (before the 2010 generated redistricting).

Like Republican Jim Renacci in the "old" 16th District did to Democratic incumbent John Boccieri (voted "no" on November 7, 2009, but "yes" on March 21, 2010), he hammered away at the-then Congressman Space vote "yes" on Obamacare in the 2009 session of the 111th Congress before polling "no" on March 21, 2010 as the 2010 election neared.

It was rather silly of Space to vote "no" in 2010 after having voted "yes" in 2009.  After the 2009 vote, the die was cast and the turnabout in March of 2010 was not going to erase his original support of the measure for campaign purposes.

Voters were smart enough to figure out that he was really for Obamacare as evidenced by the 2009 vote and figured he could confuse, fool them by flip-flopping in 2010.

And, of course, Gibbs exploited Space's political opportunism big-time.

While all the politicking was going on leading up to the 2010 election, slightly more than half of all Americans disfavored Obamacare.

With redistricting in 2011 taking place, Gibbs became the congressman for most of Stark County in the guise of the 7th congressional district.

Now that the act has begun to be implemented, it is not clear what the political ramifications are to be in terms of supporting or not supporting the law now that a U.S. Supreme Court ruling has made it "the law of the land."

Republicans are now beginning to show signs of waffling a bit.

The SCPR believes that the 37 GOP sponsored/led votes were designed to put Democrats on the spot with their "yes" for Obamacare votes in order to make political hay at election time.

While the SCPR has not examined each and every vote that Gibbs has cast on the 37 tries, given his latest histrionics on voting "no" on the 37th vote; it is axiomatic to believe he must have voted "no" on each of the ad nauseam votes.

Witness Gibbs "tweet" on his latest vote:

If #ObamaCare is fully implemented, 30 million people will still be without health insurance. j.mp/106Jv35 #TrainWreck
— Rep. Bob Gibbs (@RepBobGibbs) May 17, 2013

The laughable and disingenuous thing about the "tweet" is that the clear implication that he cares about the 30 million or so Americans who will remain without health care at the end of the implementation of the Affordable Care Act.

For the only way for him to be convincing in a purported desire to cover every single American is for him to come out for a Single Payer System.  Who believes that a Republican would ever, ever support Canadian, European style government provided health care?

So while he is trying to make it appear that he has a big heart, the political truth of the matter is that he is gaming the health care issue for continued political advantage and is seeking to continue to bash Democrats for the Party's embrace of keeping Obamacare pretty much intact.

His "repeal and replace" stance with the implication that the "replace" includes finding a way to cover the remaining 30 million or so uncovered Americans.

But Stark Countians should not believe the implication of his words.

Democrats for their part think the tide may be turning on the part of the electorate in favor of Obamacare and that the 37 "no" GOP engineered congressional votes may in time turn out to be a political albatross around Republican candidates.

With John Boccieri having removed himself from the mix of possible candidates to take on Gibbs, the lot could once again fall to Joyce Healy-Abrams who Gibbs handily defeated in November, 2012.

Whichever Democrat is the Gibbs opposition in 2014, it will be interesting to see how the campaign evolves around the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) issue.

How will each candidate approach getting the full healthcare coverage of each and every American going forward beyond 2016 which is the year of maximum implementation of Obamacare?

Right now, it appears that Gibbs is merely engaging political rhetoric and posturing.

In the 2014 campaign, he will have to provide a real program for achieving full coverage, will he not?

If not, he risks coming across of not only "not having a big heart" and more like being "heartless."

Are the Democrats correct?

Could the lack of full coverage of health for all Americans become a campaign wedge issue that will make the 37 Republican engendered congressional "no" votes a political liability rather than a political plus?

NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR JOYCE HEALY-ABRAMS IN THE 7TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT? SHE HAS TO BE LOOKING FOR A MIRACLE, NO?

Back in April, Democratic 7th congressional district candidate Joyce Healy-Abrams (running against Republican Bob Gibbs) was bursting with energy when the national Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced that she had made its "Emerging Candidates" List."

For her to make it from the emerging list to the DCCC's "Red to Blue" list, she is going to have to raise a whole lot more money.

Undoubtedly, her minders at the DCCC are impressed with her energy but they know that campaign contributions are the "mother's milk of politics" and Healy-Abrams has not been able to generate much steam on that front.

On October 15th, the third quarter Federal Election Commission (FEC) campaign finance reports are due.  And if Healy-Abrams is going to move lists she will have to show much better than her second quarter report:

Less than $300,000 is not going to cut it.

If tables were reversed and her opponent Bob Gibbs of Lakeville (Holmes County) were a Democrat he would have no trouble whatsoever making the Red to Blue list.

Gibbs has out raised Healy-Abrams by a better than $4 to $1 margin.

Of late, the Ohio Democratic Party (ODP) has been making a big deal out of the massive campaign contributions that employees of coal producer Murray Energy Corporation has been making to Republican candidates.

If this story has legs, it is exactly the kind of thing that could catapult Healy-Abrams onto the Dems Red to Blue list.  And she needs the boost in the worst way.

ODP chairman Chris Redfern on Monday wrote a letter to Steven Dettelback (US Attorney for the Northern District of Ohio) making this allegation:

On behalf of the Ohio Democratic Party, I write to formally request a criminal investigation concerning a recent report suggesting the Murray Energy Corporation, its subsidiaries, and management (“Murray Energy”) may have engaged in a pattern of illegal activity, extorting millions in financial contributions from employees and vendors for Republican candidates running for public office.

Well, who has been a major beneficiary of the Murray Energy Corporation?

You've got it!  None other than Healy-Abrams opponent Gibbs.

Yes, over $36,000 since he has been in Congress.

Redfern cites "The New Republic" article:  Coal Miner's Donor  as the basis for his request for an investigation

Other excerpts from the Redfern letter include:

• The [New Republic] Report raises serious questions about whether Murray Energy’s solicitation of hundreds of thousands of dollars for Ohio state Republicans such as Governor Kasich, and millions more for federal candidates like Mitt Romney, Josh Mandel, Jim Renacci, Bill Johnson, and more, involved extortion, money laundering, racketeering, and other violations of Title 18 of the US criminal code.  
• The [New Republic] Report states Murray Energy sources claimed some employees felt the safety of their employment may have been contingent on their willingness to make political contributions to Republican candidates,
• The [New Republic] Report outlined specific methods in which Murray Energy’s management used central company resources to allegedly extort contributions from employees,
• Additional documentation further elaborates other alleged pressure employees experienced to financially contribute to Republican candidates,
• The [New Republic] Report claims employees are expected to give a percentage of their annual income to the company PAC, and some employees may have believed bonuses would make up for those payroll contributions, 
• The [New Republic] Report continued to detail that Murray Energy mailed many of these fundraising requests, along with suggested donations, to employees’ homes, and
• Finally, the [New Republic] Report noted that the fundraising activity may have extended to those doing business with Murray Energy.
  

A major hope for Healy-Abrams has been the coattails of President Obama running well in Ohio and in the 7th District.

Ever since Obama lost badly to Romney on last Wednesday, he may be lucky to carry Ohio, let alone carry anyone with him to victory.

So the only thing for Healy-Abrams to do (other than to hope that Murray Energy contribution issue takes hold) is to out "grassroots" Gibbs.

Today, the SCPR received an email from the Healy-Abrams campaign chirping about having gotten 86 college student (pictured above) volunteers to make 7,000 door-to-door house calls and some 35,000 telephone calls to voters.

Now this is big time political brawn.

And, it appears to the SCPR, that if Healy-Abrams is to have any chance of defeating Bob Gibbs it will have to be a case of "brawn over money," for she has precious little of it.

It is likely that a continuing disparity will be evidenced by the October 15th FEC reports.

So in the end, it is likely to be no money (relatively speaking), no coattails, no political scandal miracle swooping in to help her.

It appears that political "grassroots" brawn is her only hope, no?

IT APPEARS THAT HEALY-ABRAMS WILL COME UP JUST A TAD SHORT IN 7TH CONGRESSIONAL SEAT RACE

It has been pretty amazing that Joyce Healy-Abrams has been able to put the political heat on incumbent Republican Congressman Bob Gibbs (now of the 18th but running for a seat in the newly configured 7th as a consequence of the constitutionally mandated decennial redistricting).

Ohio lost population in the 2010 census and as a result lost two congressional seats.  It could be that the loss and having to run in a reconfigured district could cost Gibbs his seat but the SCPR does not look for such to actually happen.

How so?

While Healy-Abrams came out of gate stronger than one would expect being the political novice she is (running about even in a generic poll done early on), she has not been able to move up on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's (DCCC) list of preferred candidates.

In April she moved onto the DCCC list:

 

The "Emerging List" is defined by the DCCC as being those: 

candidates and districts that are making themselves competitive by running smart campaigns which are becoming increasingly competitive.

While being on the emerging list is an accomplishment, the list she must make if she is to have a good chance of winning is what is known as the "Red to Blue List."

The "Red to Blue List" consists of the:

top Democratic campaigns across the country, and offers them financial, communications, grassroots, and strategic support. The program will introduce Democratic supporters to new, competitive candidates in order to help expand their base leading up to Election Day.

Right now that list includes 53 congressional districts across the country.  For Ohio, only Charlie Wilson (elected in the Obama/Democratic banner year of 2008).  However, he lost in the Republican tide of 2010 and is now seemingly poised to reclaim the seat in this - a more balanced - election year.

As the SCPR sees this race is that the main reason Healy-Abrams is in play is that Gibbs allowed his old district (the 18th) to be decimatedly morphed into the 7th which only includes about a third of 18th.

To The Report both Gibbs and Healy-Abrams are bland candidates in and of themselves and do very little to generate excitement among the voters.  Yours truly is told that upwards of 50% of the 7th District voters know practically nothing about either candidates.

That being the case does not bode very well for Healy-Abrams as far as the SCPR is concerned.  When the 7th was put together, the gerrymanders calculated the political party bias of each and every district and the Republican map makers ensured that the 7th would lean Republican.

This means that absent extraordinary circumstances a Republican is going to win the 7th.

From what the SCPR sees of Healy-Abrams, there is nothing special about her or her campaign effort.

Had former 16th District Congressman John Boccieri entered the race, the SCPR believes that he does have enough of a flair about him to be on the DCCC "Red to Blue List" and therefore in a position to take the 7th for Democrats.

Republicans obviously were determined to make it difficult for Boccieri to make the run.  In redistricting they placed his home in Alliance into fellow Democrat Tim Ryan's 13th congressional district.

While Boccieri could legally have run for the 7th even living out of the district, such a fact would have been a distraction from the real issues of the campaign.  Of course, he could have moved like he did (from New Middetown [Mahoning County]) to Alliance) when he ran against Kirk Schuring in 2008.  However, he appears to be a solid family man who would not put his family (which includes a number of small children) through another such disruption in their lives.

So the 7th congressional district race is what it is and two pretty vapid candidates are in "a limp to the end."

Gibbs is so non-descript that it would not be a shock if Healy-Abrams were to win.

If she does, it will be a sign that Democrats are doing exceptionally well across the county. 

However, political pundits across the country are not expecting a Democratic groundswell, unlike in the 2010 races where some did insofar as Republican prospects were concerned.  Some predicted thewholesale change that resulted in the Republicans taking over the United States House of Representatives.  In 2012, most are predicting single-digit Democratic gains.

So the most that probably can be said about the prospect of a Healy-Abrams win in November is:

"Close, but no cigar!"

THREE DEMOCRATS REPRESENTING STARK COUNTY IN CONGRESS COME JANUARY 01, 2013? WILL JOYCE HEALY-ABRAMS BE LEADING THE WAY?

The SCPR hears that the Joyce Healy-Abrams campaign is ecstatic about a poll showing that Republican Congressman Bob Gibbs loses to a "generic" Democrat.

Well, Abrams is not a generic Democrat.

Being the brother of Canton Mayor William J. Healy, II makes her anything but generic.

Originally, yours truly did not think that Healy-Abrams, being the political unknown she is in her own right and being new at the game of politics, was a stand-in (i.e. spreading the Healy ID outside Stark County) for her politically ambitious brother who The Report figures to grow restless with being a mere mayor.

However, the poll results suggests a:  "not so quick" with that sort of analysis.

But it was somewhat interesting that she did not do well in her March 6th Jackson precinct race against former state Senate candidate Jan Schwartz (Schuring).

She didn't even vote for herself?

Must have thought better of it with not voting for herself as being a signal of same?

With respect to her congressional race, Healy-Abrams does have the political connections through brother Jamie (as Mayor Healy is called by his close friends) that could make her a threat to unseat Gibbs who currently represents the 18th congressional district.

Because Ohio lost population over the last decade, the Buckeye State loses two congressional seats and the constitutionally required redistricting has really turned freshman Congressman Gibbs' world to be turned topsy-turvey.

With redistricting his home now falls within the redesigned 7th Congressional District which includes most of Stark County and many other areas to the north and west of his current district lines which has to make it pretty much like he is running for the first time.

In 2010, being the Republican year it was (with the GOP gaining control of the U.S. House of Representatives), he did very nicely running against Democrat incumbent Zack Space (who himself, won the 18th in a Democratic high political tide year [2008]), winning by a comfortable margin.

Most political prognosticators expect the Republicans to retain control of the U.S. House, but the control could be cut to razor thin margins and Stark County could be key if a thinning of control materializes.

Much of the rest of Stark County is in the 16th Congressional District which is currently held by Republican Jim Rennaci (Wadsworth, Summit County).  He has the fight of his political life on his hands because he must square off against Democrat Congresswoman Betty Sutton (Copley, Summit County) with redistricting having both of them with residences within the 16th.

Renacci like Gibbs benefited in 2010 to a banner Republican year in defeating freshman Democratic Congressman John Boccieri.

If Renacci loses to Sutton and Gibbs loses to Abrams-Healy, then undoubtedly such is would be a harbinger of a much tighter R/D mix in Congress.

Even in the very good year for Republicans, Renacci barely won Stark County over Boccieri.

So its seems that Healy-Abrams has an opportunity to build up a margin in Stark that could carry her to a squeaker of a win across the new district.

Gibbs should have the advantage in counties which were part of the 18th, to wit:  Holmes, Knox, Coshocton and part of Tuscarawas.

The battleground likely will be in Ashland and 7th District parts of Richland, Medina, Huron and Lorain counties.

The Report hears that the Healy-Abrams campaign has lined up Boccieri along with Democratic U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown and Democratic Congressman Tim Ryan (now the 17th; to be the 13th which takes in the Alliance area of Stark County) to provide her with a "big-hitter" assist to take the 7th.

As can be seen from Federal Election Commission (FEC) reports (through February, 2012), an advantage for Healy-Abrams is going to be union financial and "feet on the ground" support.

As of February, she had collected less than $30,000 including individual contributions.

Congressman Gibbs, on the other hand, has a political war chest approaching $500,000.

The next FEC campaign finance report should be an indicator of whether or not Healy-Abrams is going to be able to raise enough money to make her challenge of Gibbs a race she can win.

"Money is the mother's milk of politics" if a candidate is to get a message out and achieve voter ID.