UPDATE: (11/06/2012-3:32 PM) HAS NATE SILVER OF THE 538 BLOG GOTTEN IT RIGHT? OBAMA HAS 90.9% CHANCE OF BEING REELECTED. ALSO, A 91% CHANCE TO WIN OHIO. WILL HE WIN STARK AND HELP McDONALD (SHERIFF) & SMUCKLER (COMMISSIONER) WITH THE "COATTAILS EFFECT?"

Better than predicting today's election result is to deal with "probabilities" a la Nate Silver (LINK) of the 538 political blog located on the NY Times website.

The SCPR only pays attention to two organizations that deal with polling of elections.

The second in line is Charlie Cook's "Cook's Political Report.  But first in line is Nate Silver's 538 political blog.

In the 2008 presidential election, Silver corrected called the probabilities for Obama in 49 of 50 states.

This year he is at 90.9% in terms of "probability" that President Obama will be reelected.

 

Almost matched by his "forecast" (note:  not a prediction) at the national level is his "probability" (91.8%:  up from the 87% forecast just yesterday) that Obama wins Ohio.

And he has Democrat Sherrod Brown "probably" defeating Republican Josh Mandel.  And a high "probability" indeed:  96%.

As reported by the SCPR on Friday, the Healy-Abrams (Democrat)/Gibbs (Republican incumbent) race is thought to be safe for Gibbs.

However, the Renacci (Republican incumbent -16th) and Sutton (Democrat incumbent - 13th) race, who are squaring off against one another in the "new 16th" congressional district because of decennial constitutionally required redistricting because Ohio's loss of population results in Ohio losing two congressional seats, is truly "too close to call, meaning that the probabilities are 50/50 across the district.

The SCPR does believe that Renacci will win in Stark.

Why?

Because he and Betty Sutton only has Jackson Township, Lawrence Township (Canal Fulton) and part of Lake Township to deal with.  All of these parts of Stark County are known to be Republican indexed and therefore The Report believes he will best Sutton in the Stark County part of the district.

And he likely wins in Wayne County and the parts of Medina County in the 16th.

But it may be a different story over the rest of the district, especially in the northern and northwest parts of the newly configured district.

If Obama has polls well in the 16th overall, then he might well pull Sutton through.

When Statehouse Republicans (including Marlboro's Christina Hagan [the 50th House District] and Plain's Scott Oelslager [the 29th Senate District]) did their gerrymandering redistricting (but not Kirk Schuring who is running in the "new" 48th), they helped carve Stark up into three congressional districts:  the 7th (Bob Gibbs/Joyce Healy-Abrams}, the 13th (Tim Ryan/Marisha Agana) and, of course, the 16th (Jim Renacci/Betty Sutton).

Christina Hagan, in particular, said the slicing and dicing of Stark County was a good thing when it happened.

In her warped and highly partisan way of thinking.  Former 16th District congressman Ralph Regula takes great exception to her as did Schuring.

Ryan will win easily in the 13th over Agana.

But how about local to Stark County contested races?

The SCPR sees that there are only two contests that could go either way.

The commissioners face off between former Stark County commissioner and Republican Richard Regula and former Canton councilman and Democrat Bill Smuckler is one such race.

The other is the sheriff's match up of Republican Larry Dordea and Chief Deputy Sheriff Mike McDonald (a Democrat).

Who is likely to win in these two races?

In the opinion of the SCPR, it depends on whether or not President Obama wins Stark County, and, if so, by how much.  A comfortable Obama win (let's say five percentage points, which The Report thinks is unlikely) would likely mean Smuckler and McDonald wins in a high degree of Silver's "probability."

Any thing less that five percent, it could mean that we will not know on election night which of the candidates for commissioner and sheriff have won.

If Romney wins in Stark, then the SCPR thinks there is a high probability that Regula and Dordea win.

There you have it folks.

Have a great election day and BE SURE TO VOTE!

STARK COUNTY TRENDING OBAMA? IF SO, HOW WILL THE TREND PLAY OUT IN STARK COUNTY RACES?

Updated:  4:30 PM

On Tuesday night yours truly was watching CNN when up popped a graphic of Ohio in a political analysis piece by John King.

What was different about this particular graphic is that it showed county detail as to how Obama was achieving an 8% point lead.  And, Stark County is being shown in the "blue" (Democratic) column.

While CNN has not revealed the actual county percentage breakdown, that Stark is shown in "blue" (indicating an Obama win) could have a impact of how Stark County races (in whole or in part [i.e. the congressional races]) could play out.

As the SCPR sees it, the Obama advantage, if it holds, bodes well for Democrats running in "close" countywide races.

The Report believes that there are two close countywide match ups:  McDonald (D) versus Dordea (R) for sheriff and Regula (R) versus Smuckler (D) for county commissioner.

Moreover, it appears that the 16th (Renacci [R] versus Sutton [D]) and 7th (Healy-Abrams [D] versus Gibbs [R]) congressional races are close.  In each of these races, only part of Stark County is in play.

• On the Regula/Smuckler race:
• Smuckler is a Canton politician  (served for years on Canton City Council and ran for mayor twice; losing both tries) who has no countywide "running for office experience" whereas Regula does.  
• Regula lost in a county treasurer race against Gary Zeigler in 2000 and again to political upstart Todd Bosley in 2006 for county commissioner.  Regula was running as an incumbent.
• The SCPR is told that Regula is a "born-again" politician who has mended his lazy campaigning style and is determined to take advantage of the Regula name (he is the son of former long-term Republican congressman Ralph Regula) and having been a commissioner in order to best Smuckler.
• Smuckler understands that it is not the best political background for a Canton politician to be running countywide as a Democrat.  Even the Canton popular  politician Tom Bernabei (a former Canton councilman and long-term law director) would have lost his 2010 contest for county commissioner against James Walters had a conservative independent candidate not been in the race.
• Who wins?  It depends.  If Obama wins by a healthy margin in Stark, it will likely be Smuckler,  If Obama squeaks by, then it is anybody's guess.  If Romney wins Stark, the it looks like a Richard Regula victory.

• On the McDonald/Dordea race:
• Larry Dordea (Chief of Police in Hartville, a former Alliance police chief and an Alliance councilman-at-large) ran a very solid race against retiring sheriff Tim Swanson back in 2008.  Dordea's prior countywide exposure should give him an advantage.  Moreover, he enjoys a solid reputation as a first rate law enforcer among the Stark law enforcement community. Among the Dordea endorsers from the Stark County police community are:
• the Alliance Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 73, and
• Mike Grimes, retired North Canton police chief.
•  Mike McDonald has been one of Swanson's top two men as chief deputy of the Stark County Jail Division for years.  While he has never run for office before, he has been a highly visible chief deputy (with plenty of press over the years) and is well liked and well respected within the Stark County policing community.  Among McDonald's endorsements are from the police community are:
• the Canton Police Patrolmen's Association
• the Fraternal Order of Police McKinley Lodge #2, and, of course,
• Sheriff Tim Swanson.
• One of the questions about McDonald is whether or not his ties to Swanson (who has generated some political controversy in being a strong supporter of former Stark County treasurer Gary Zeigler and in supporting the 2008 commissioner decision [Bosley, Harmon and Vignos] to "impose" a 0.5% sales tax) will rub off on him in a "guilt by association" fashion.
• Another concern has been his health.  Some months ago McDonald let it be known that he was suffering from esophageal cancer.  But he has told the SCPR that treatment has been successful and he is fit to run.
• Who wins?  The SCPR believes that Dordea is the odds-on-favorite win but that a big Obama win in Stark County could allow McDonald to eke out a narrow victory.

•  On the Renacci/Sutton race:
• The Renacci/Sutton face-off (two incumbent members of Congress running against each other because of redistricting) is likely to be a nail-biter.
• A poll done months ago showed Sutton ahead by the very slightest of margins.  
• As the SCPR sees this race, Sutton likely ousts Renacci if the Obama numbers hold up at half the plurality of the CNN numbers or the ten point statewide Ohio poll favoring Obama published yesterday by Quinnipiac/CBS News/NY Times.
• For Renacci to win, Romney is going to have to make a miraculous recovery in the dimensions of making the presidential race a dead heat by November 6th.

• On the Healy-Abrams/Gibbs race:
• In the Healy-Abrams/Gibbs match up, The Report believes that Healy-Abrams is within hailing difference and could be posed to pull off an upset.
• The Report is told that Obama lost the district that now composes the area covered by the 7th congressional district 52% to 48% to John McCain in 2008 whereas Sherrod Brown (D - incumbent U.S. Senator ran at 56% in 2006),
• Being a political neophyte, Healy-Abrams certainly will not poll higher than President Obama.  So if there is a case for a down-ticket-effect to drag a candidate to victory, this contest is one where strong Obama numbers will be needed for Healy-Abrams to pull the upset.
• A marginal victory in Stark and other parts of the district is not likely to be enough to produce a Healy-Abrams victory.

Other Stark County races are likely to be unaffected in terms of outcome no matter what happens at the presidential level.

The Report expects Democrats Ferrero (prosecutor), Murthy (coroner), Campbell (recorder) and Reinbold (clerk of courts) to win with comfortable margins even if Romney were to take Stark County.  Moreover, Republican Alex Zumbar wins retention as the Stark County treasurer even in the face of an Obama Stark County landslide victory, should such a turn out to be the case.

Also,  in the Stark County-based Ohio House District races, Democrat Stephen Slesnick (the 49th), Republicans Kirk Schuring and Christina Hagan should win in a walk and whom between Obama and Romney piles up Stark County presidential votes will not affect the outcome of the final result.

ELECTION DAY BLOG (UPDATED THROUGHOUT DAY) - STARK COUNTY/OHIO KEY TO MAKING ROMNEY GOP PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE? OTHER TOPICS: GOP SHERIFF RACE, GOP STATE COMMITTEEWOMAN FACE OFF, DEMOCRAT STATE COMMITTEEMAN CONTEST

UPDATED AT 1:00 PM

1. Analysis of GOP presidential primary (a Stark County/Ohio perspective),
2. Local Republicans:  Who will win the Sarah Brown/Beth Williams face-off for 29th District for Republican State Committeewoman?,
3. For sheriff:  Who will be the GOP standard-bearer in a three man race?
4. Local Democrats:  Political heavyweights Canton Mayor William J. Healy, II and Stephen Slesnick (and, parenthetically William Smith) vie for 29th District Democratic State Committeeman, who comes out on top?
5. The Stark Democratic precinct committee flap:  the Healy/Gonazalez battleground for ultimate control over the Stark County Democratic Party.

NATIONAL LEVEL

Stark County could well be a key as to whether or not former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney surfaces after today's SuperTuesday (10 primary states, 1 caucus state) Republican primary as the de facto nominee for president.

Ohio is in the "too close to call" category for most political pundits as Ohioans go to the polls beginning at 6:30 this morning.

Ohio is classic in terms of political topography as to whom among Romney and former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum (PA) will ultimately as the nominee.  Newt Gingrich and Libertarian-esque Republican Ron Paul are "also rans" in Ohio.

The Buckeye state as well as Stark County has urban, suburban and rural political constituencies which make the Romney/Santorum race intriguing.  Romney does well among Republican urban/suburban voters whereas Santorum appeals to rural voters and, where they have a strong presence, Tea Partiers and strong social conservatives.

It appears that most of the Stark County Republican political establishment is lining up in the Romney camp (e.g. Stark County commissioner Janet Weir Creighton, Stark Board of Elections member and former Stark GOP chairman Curt Braden and Jane Timken of the highly regarded Stark County-based Timken family).

The SCPR projects that it is likely that Romney wins Stark and that such indicates, perhaps, a statewide victory.

STATE/LOCAL LEVEL

REPUBLICAN 

BROWN V. WILLIAMS - 29TH DISTRICT STATE CENTRAL COMMITTEEWOMAN 

Both the Democratic and Republican state political party organizations have big political fights going on as to who will be the party chairman going forward.

On the Republican side, Governor John Kasich has let it be known that he wants Kevin DeWine replaced as party chair.  Normally, when the word is dropped that the governor wants a change in the leadership in the state party, the non-anointed existing chair gracefully steps aside.

But not state GOP Chair Kevin DeWine.

He wants to stay notwithstanding Kasich's wishes on the matter.

DeWine wants to stay so badly that he recently pushed through a state central committee rule that even if elected in today's primary, candidates who had not voted in two consecutive GOP primaries will not be seated on the committee.

Stark County, The Report, is told by an area Tea Party official, has the potential with one of its candidates, to collide head on with the DeWine orchestrated rule.

The Ohio Tea Party sides with Governor Kasich on his desire that DeWine step aside and has recruited candidates across the state to challenge for GOP state central candidate.  Included in the recruitment list is a Stark Countian.

As the SCPR sees The Tea Party might as well as saved itself the effort in putting up a candidate to challenge prominent Stark GOPer Sarah Brown.

It would be quite a political coup were Tea Party candidate Beth A. Williams to defeat Brown.

Sarah Brown is in the judgment of The Report is the penultimate (i.e. next to Stark County Commissioner Janet Weir Creighton) Stark GOP woman.

Brown, the wife of Stark County Court of Common Pleas Judge Charles E. Brown, Jr., has been a member of the Alliance City Schools Board of Education, Alliance City Council, the Ohio Ethics Commission and state central committeewoman for the 33rd District.

With the constitutionally required decentenial redistricting of Ohio House and Senate districts, Alliance (where Brown lives) has been shifted from the 33rd to the 29th District.

Her Ohio Tea Party endorsed Opponent Beth A. Williams who works at VXI Global Solutions of Canton (a customer call center recently lured to Canton by Canton Mayor William J. Healy, II's administration) is not in the same league with Brown.

The Report believes that there is not a significant difference between Brown and Williams on their support of Governor Kasich's preference that Kevin DeWine step down as party chairman.

Moreover, Brown does not face a challenge to her right to take her "duly elected to" seat in the highly likelihood of her winning election today.

DORDEA VERSUS GROGAN VERSUS WOOD - STARK COUNTY SHERIFF

Former Alliance Chief of Police Larry Dordea will handily win the Stark County Republican Party nomination for the right to run against Democrat and Chief Stark County Deputy Sheriff (Jail Division) Mike McDonald.

Dordea is currently the Hartville police chief and an at-large Republican member of Alliance City Council.

Dordea was the GOP's nominee in 2008.  He ran a spirited and competitive campaign against Sheriff Tim Swanson back then.

All the more politically wiser and experienced for having run in 2008, Dordea faces Republican opponents who lack voter I.D.

Dordea who is generally recognized in the policing community as a proven law enforcement officer who is up to taking over the administration of Stark's countywide policing unit.

John Grogan, former mayor of Canal Fulton (who was involved in a controversy or two during his term) and a lieutenant in the Summit County Sheriff's Department (also marked by at least one controversy), likely will come in third in this race.

If he had a higher political profile and a more populous political base, Beach City Police Chief Jim Wood might seriously challenge Dordea for the right to be the Republican nominee to run in the November general election .

But he doesn't and consequently The Report sees him as no better than second in this three man race.


DEMOCRATS

HEALY V. SLENICK V. SMITH - 29TH DISTRICT STATE CENTRAL COMMITTEEMAN


In all due respect to candidate William Smith, the SCPR does not see him as being in play to become the elected Democratic representative on the Ohio Democratic Party State Central Committee.

Stark County "voting" Democrats could send a powerful message to the Stark County "organized" Democrats that the likes of Healy and Slesnick will not be abided in a political family fight that appears to be taking place between the two by voting for the alternative:  William Smith.

But don't bank on that happening.

Rather this election (together with a number of precinct committee races - see commentary later on in this blog) may determine for the time being whether Canton Mayor William J. Healy, II  (who the SCPR believes has designs of becoming the political boss of the official Stark County Democratic Party) or  state Representative Stephen Slesnick (who The Report sees as a stand-in candidate beholden to Stark County Democratic Party Chairman Randy Gonzalez and his political lieutenant Johnnie A. Maier, Jr., Massillon clerk of courts and former Stark County Democratic Party chairman) is winning what appears to yours truly to be a battle for control of the Stark County Democratic Party.

Healy was beseeched to run for state central committeeman by current Chairman Chris Redfern.

Though Slesnick says he will remain "open-minded" on whether or not Redfern should remain chairman, The Report and many other Ohio-based political analysts including the SCPR believes (and, apparently, Redfern himself a evidenced in getting Healy to run) that there is little chance that Slesnick would ever support Redfern in his attempt to remain party chairman.

Healy is avowedly a Redfern man, through and through.

This race is very difficult to call.

The Report talked to a Canton-based elected official yesterday evening and the official says he is totally freaked out in having to choose between Healy and Slesnick.  He considers both as very capable politicians.

The SCPR, believing Healy to be a much more accomplished politician,  tends to think that he is the the odds-on-favorite to win.  However, Healy's polish as a politician may actually work against him; especially with those rank-and-file voters living out in the townships and villages of Stark County.

Accordingly, the SCPR is unable to call this race.

Post-election The Report will be looking at William Smith's share of the vote in an endeavor to determine whether or not he played "spoiler" for either Healy or Slesnick in the outcome of the race.

THE STARK COUNTY DEMOCRATIC PARTY PRECINCT COMMITTEEPERSON FLAP

By the hour, the plot seemingly thickens.

Minutes ago yours truly got a telephone call from C. David Morgan regarding the SCPR blogs on an apparently bogus letter that is being generated and sent out across Stark County by someone other than the person him or herself who is running for a Stark County Democratic Party precinct committeeperson slot.

His is another tale of a letter that is being sent out which is obviously the clone of a letter sent out in the name of former Perry Township trustee James (Jim) P. Holmes.

Pastor Morgan, a long time foe of Canton Mayor William J. Healy, II, has been precinct committeeman in Canton's precinct 9H.  However, with precinct cost saving consolidation initiated by the Stark County Board of Elections, Morgan decided not to seek the office in his redesignated precinct 9G. 

Not knowing this, Morgan says, Mayor Healy prevailed upon his management assistant Derek Gordan to run in 9G.  

What's more is that long term Stark County Democrat George Mullane (who Morgan says is the uncle of Stark County Board of Elections Director Jeanette Mullane) because of the consolidation also found himself switched from precinct 8B to a reconfigured 9G.

About 10 days ago, Morgan says, he got a letter purportedly (though unsigned) from George Mullane asking for Morgan's support in a format that Morgan says is the same as the Holmes letter (see below) EXCEPT FOR the precinct designation and, of course, the typed, unsigned name of the candidate, to wit:

Holmes denies that the letter was in fact generated by and sent by him.  He says he only came to know about the letter because whoever fabricated it made the mistake of sending a copy to his wife.

Holmes is matched up in Perry precinct 13 against J. Fred Stergios.  Holmes told The Report that Stergios describes himself has being a political enemy of the Maier political machine.

Morgan says that about two days ago he got a letter which sounds very much to him as actually being George Mullane and that it is totally different than the purported Mullane letter of ten days ago.

Massillon political gadfly Scott Graber emailed the SCPR this morning with a copy of a letter he received purportedly from Grace A. McGraner, (his opponent via BOE precinct consolidation) to wit:

This is what Graber had to say in an e-mail to the SCPR yesterday:

they did the same to me.   no notice of pending election sent to Scott Graber, public enemy number one of Johnnie Maier Jr.

The SCPR has other reports of letters going out under the name of precinct committee candidates which fit the description of the Holmes and McGraner letters.

So you have several persons who have received the form letter speculating to the SCPR that they think the letter may have been generated by the Massillon-based Johnnie A. Maier, Jr. political machine.

The SCPR has written going back to last fall that yours truly believes that there is a political war going on between Stark County Party Chair Randy Gonzalez (Maier being a key supporter of him) and Healy as to who, out into the future, will be controlling the Stark County Democratic Party.

Inasmuch as it takes a number of precinct committee elections to change the balance of power within either the Republican or Democratic Party, the seeming political jockeying is no surprise to the SCPR.

It appears that Healy may be trying to change that balance whereas the Gonzalez/Maier forces may be putting up the fight of their political lives right under our noses.

Unlike the Republican presidential election, the Brown/Williams face off and the Healy/Slesnick/Smith contest which will be decided later today; the ramifications of  Stark County Democratic Party precinct contests may not be known or understood in terms of their import for two to four years.

Very interesting political stuff, no?

ANY ELECTION EXCITEMENT BUILDING FOR STARK CO. 2012 ELECTIONS IN STARK?

To repeat the headline question:  Any election excitement building for Stark County 2012 elections?

Answer:  yes and no.

Obviously, first and foremost is the Republican presidential primary election which is a part of the overall March 6th Ohio primary elections.

A recent Quinnipiac University Ohio poll shows former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum leading former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney 36% to 29% with former Speaker of the U.S. House Newt Gingrich coming in at 20% and Texas Congressman Ron Paul at 9%.

However, the big factor two and one-half weeks out from Ohio's primary is the estimate that as many as 50% of those polled say that they are not fixed in their choice.

While Santorum is presently leading across the state, the SCPR believes that Romney is likely ahead in Stark County inasmuch as Santorum appeals to the most conservative part of the Republican Party and The Report does not see Stark Republicans as fitting that description.

The Romney campaign website claims that many prominent Ohio Republicans have endorsed him (e.g. U.S. Senator Rob Portman - January 19, 2012).

It will be interesting to see who, if any of the candidates, actually show up in Stark to campaign, and, more importantly, who shares the stage with the candidate - as a tip off - as to who the local Republican establishment is to support.

Stark County Commissioner Janet Creighton tells the SCPR (as of yesterday) that she is undecided.

Other than the Republican presidential race, there is not that much going on for Stark Countians in the primary.

There is a GOP nomination for U.S. Senator contest going on for the right to match up with Democratic United States Senator Sherrod Brown going on, but it looks as if Josh Mandel (Ohio treasurer) has it locked up which makes the race ho-hum.

 Ditto for Brown.  He has two "write in" opponents.

However, there are two "inside the Columbus beltway" intraparty fights with a Stark County aspect that is likely lost on most Stark County primary voters which could affect who is chairman of the Ohio Republican Party and the Ohio Democratic Party.

First, the Beth Williams versus Sarah Brown 29th District State Central Committee Woman race.

The SCPR is told by Jim Woods of the Medina County Tea Party that the Tea Party contemplates filing litigation against the Kevn DeWine as chairman of the Ohio Republican Party to invalidate a rule that DeWine forced through into the governing rules of the party that requires central committee persons to have voted in the Republican primary in the last two primary elections.  If left to stand, Woods tells The Report, Williams would not be qualified to serve.

There is a fight going on within the Ohio Republican Party with Governor Kasich behind the dissidents to remove DeWine as chairman.

The SCPR's impression is that both Brown and Williams favor DeWine's removal.

It is hard to imagine Sarah Brown not winning a Stark County Republican Party intraparty contest.

Secondly, there is similar fight is going on within the Ohio Democratic Party (ODP) as to whether or not Chris Redfern is to remain as chairman of the ODP.

Redfern has recruited Canton Mayor William J. Healy, II to be his man from Stark County.  Healy interesting enough is opposed by his successor 52nd District Ohio House state Representative Stephen Slesnick.

The SCPR believes that Healy is trying to position himself to take over control of the Stark County Democratic Party.  This race will be an indicator of how much strength Healy has among rank and file Democrats.

If Healy wins this race and if Democrats take a bath in the newly formed Ohio House districts (i.e. the 48th - Schuring, and the 50th - Hagan) which the SCPR projects they will, then there might be renewed impetus to set current chairman Randy Gonzalez aside to be replaced by Healy or one of his political confederates with a mission to reinvigorate the Stark County Democratic Party which has fallen on hard times over the last several years.

The Dems could be looking at a loss of the prosecutor's office, the sheriff's department and, perhaps, even the coroner's office come the general election of 2012.

Stay tuned.  The SCPR expects the general election of 2012 to be all excitement!