FORMER 16TH DISTRICT CONGRESSMAN JOHN BOCCIERI SET TO RUN IN THE "NEW" 6TH?

Last evening the SCPR had a conversation with former 16th District Congressman John Boccieri (presently living in Alliance) as to his thoughts on what appears to be Ohio's new congressional districts and what his immediate political plans are.

From that conversation and on the basis of analyzing other factors, The Report is ready to project that John Boccieri is likely - if he becomes a candidate at all -  to be a candidate for the "new" 6th (which also was the number assigned to the "current" district) congressional district.

Why does The Report say the 6th currently held by Republican Congressman Bill Johnson?

Three reasons.

First, in the conversation yours truly detected a focus on the 6th.  While Boccieri made it clear that he had a number of options on the table, The Report's interpretation of his comments was as said in the first sentence of this paragraph:  Boccieri seemed to dwell on the 6th as opposed to others.

However, The Report believes that the next option would be for Boccieri to run against Jim Renacci to re-claim the 16th district seat which still includes north central and northwest sections of Stark County.  He might even be able to maintain his Alliance residence since it is in Stark County and handle any potential hue and cry by Renacci that he does not live in the district (which, by the U.S. Constitution, he is not required to) by:

• countering that Renacci lobbied Ohio Statehouse Republicans to put him and the Democratic strongholds of Canton and Massillon outside of the 16th, and
• making the point that the 16th does indeed include parts of Stark and he lives in Stark.

Second, one of his foremost political mentors and sponsors, former Democratic Governor Ted Strickland (who, at Boccieri's coming out at North Canton's Bitzer Park as a candidate to succeed the retiring Ralph Regula in 2008, said that "[he] love[d] Boccieri as if he were a brother") has a storied history of winning in the sixth congressional district.  Undoubtedly, Strickland is having communication with and influence on Boccieri in whatever decision he makes.

In the last 20 years Ted Strickland won six times and Charlie Wilson, Jr. won twice with healthy Democratic margins.

With Republican congressional approval ratings as low as 13% across the nation and Johnson being a freshman legislator, Boccieri has to feel good about his chances in the "new" 6th.

A major obstacle in a Boccieri return via the 6th may be a desire by Wilson to re-claim the seat.  This is where Strickland and others Boccieri-politically-powerful-friendlies could be enormously helpful by persuading Wilson to step aside for the much younger Boccieri who seems to have a star quality about him, at least insofar as a number of leadership Democrats (local, state and national) seem to buy into.

The Wilson defeat in 2010 is not troublesome to Boccieri because he views the 2010 Republican/Tea Party landslide to have been a consequence of perfect political storm sequence of events not to be repeated (and, in large part reversed) in 2012.

Third, if Boccieri is going to move again (he moved into the 16th to counter his 2008 opponent Kirk Schuring's argument that he was not a Stark Countian) there is no place that he would rather be than Mahoning County (which is partially included in the 6th) from whence he came into Stark.

He has young children a number of whom are school age and no doubt he wants more than anything else to have a stable situation for them and a return to Mahoning would appear to offer an acceptable alternative to moving to parts of Ohio in which the family has no roots.  Moreover, he was recently promoted to lieutenant colonel in the United States Air Force Reserve and is set to serve as an instructor pilot at the Youngstown Air Reserve Station.

Those three are the reasons why the SCPR thinks former Congressman John Boccieri will surface by the filing deadline (which could be as early as December 7th) as a candidate for Ohio's 6th District in the Congress of the United States of America as a new district in the Republican gerrymandered 2011 every ten year reapportionment.

HMM? JOHN BOCCIERI IS SENDING OUT PRESS RELEASES. MUST BE PLANNING TO RUN AGAINST RENACCI IN 2012?

Now that Republican Congressman Jim Renacci (Ohio's 16th District) has a record to defend, it appears that the man he defeated in November, 2010 is gearing up to run against him to regain a seat in Congress.

It likely will not be exactly the same seat he held from 2008 through the end of 2009 but what difference does that make.  After all, he did not live in the 16th when he decided to run for the seat in 2007.  So what if the new district does not include Alliance where he lives now and is not even designated #16 due to redistricting which is to take place soon.  Neither is relevant to whether or not he runs again.

What matters is:   does Boccieri have a political killing issue that he can work Renacci over on like the current congressman did (remember:  voted 94% with Nancy Pelosi, Cap 'n Trade, Healthcare, et cetera) when he defeated Boccieri.

 

Boccieri did not do all that bad in Stark County in 2010 in a bad for a Democrat election year.  It was the Republican strongholds Ashland, Medina and Wayne that made Renacci a landslide winner.

It's hard to see that redistricting won't improve his chances in a re-run.  Who knows maybe the 16th or whatever number it has will veer north (Summit, Portage) or east (Mahonning, Columbiana) while maintaining Renacci's hometown of Wadsworth in the eastern part of Medina County?

Over a little over four months into his term, Renacci has already saddled himself with a potentially devastating issue to defend himself against any Democrat running against him.  He voted for Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan's budget bill which takes on the widely popular Medicare program.  Ryan wants to end Medicare "as we know it" with a favorite Republican tactic:  vouchers.  Having voted for the Ryan budget plan; Rennaci now owns it.  Just as Boccieri owned the bills he voted for no matter what his explanations were for voting for them in accordance with then Speaker Pelosi's wishes.

Renacci, of course, has a Pelosi problem of his own.  As far as the SCPR can ascertain, he has voted 100% in accordance with the wishes of Republican Speaker John Boehner.

Bocccieri appears to beginning his rematch trek on a high note.

News broke late last night with an announcement by President Obama that American military forces had found and killed (in a firefight) Al Qaeda head Osama Bin Laden early Sunday morning in Paskistan.

At 1:34 a.m. this morning, yours truly received an e-mail from the Boccieri camp with a press release attached, to wit:

Former Congressman John Boccieri Issues Statement Regarding Successful Military Action Resulting in Death of Osama Bin Laden

Alliance, Ohio – Tonight President Obama announced that Osama Bin Laden was killed as a result of United States Military action in Pakistan:

“After nearly a decade of escape, Osama Bin Laden can no longer flee justice,” Former Congressman Boccieri stated. “Brave members of the U.S. military brought an end to this evil and dark chapter and delivered justice to the thousands of families who lost loved ones at the hands of the Al Qaeda mastermind.

“President Barack Obama’s decision to strike at the heart of Al Qaeda and kill its leader is a huge morale boost for the thousands of troops who’ve spent countless deployments away from our country in his pursuit.  Our prayers remain with the families of the brave Americans who gave their life for the completion of this mission

“While America must remain vigilant against further acts of terrorism; the death of Osama Bin Laden clearly dismantles an organized effort to spread terror across the globe.

“Let the completion of this mission be a warning that the United States will not rest when our country is threatened.

Undoubtedly, this event will have an immediate impact on Obama's popularity with the American electorate and Boccieri, being a United States Air Force Reserve Officer who has flown C-130's in and out of Afghanistan and Iraq, stands to benefit politically.

That Boccieri seized on the good news so quickly should be a clear signal to the Renacci folks that Boccieri plans to regain his seat in Congress.

It appears to the SCPR that a Boccieri/Renacci rematch is clearly in the offing.

The Republican tide that swept Renacci into office will be a distant memory come November, 2012.  And, being a presidential year, there will be a lot more Democrats voting.

An interesting observation on Renacci is whether he will begin to separate from the likes of Boehner and Ryan while he still has time or will he choose to remain the party loyalist?

CONGRESSMAN RENACCI HEADED DOWN THE SAME TRACK AS BOCCIERI: "VOTING THE PARTY LINE?" HE'S ONE FOR ONE WITH THE BOEHNER LED REPUBLICAN CAUCUS. QUESTION: WILL HE, DURING HIS TERM, SLIP BELOW OR EXCEED BOCCIERI'S 94% PARTY LOYALTY RATING?

UPDATE - 01/20/2011 - READER SAYS THEY (TEA PARTIERS?) WILL RISE UP AGAINST CONGRESSMAN JIM RENACCI IF HE DOES NOT DELIVER AS PROMISED.

The SCPR welcomes reader comment that is relevant to the points/question(s) posed by a blog.

The following comment posed by Marilyn Dietz has been edited to include only those portions that speak the the points/questions raised by yours truly.  Unlike other Stark County media, the SCPR requires readers to stick to the subject matter of the blog post to qualify for publication.

Marilyn Dietz" <mdietz1005@att.net>

To:  "Martin Olson" <tramols@att.net> 

Mr. Olson:   In response to your commentary regarding Mr. Renacci voting party lines, blah, blah, blah.   ...

Once Obamacare was crammed down our throats against our will, we (meaning those of us who campaigned for, contributed to, and voted for Jim Renacci) got mad, really mad, and found someone who promised to repeal this Obamination.  We worked our butts off for him and others like him.  I personally contributed to and campaigned for many others across the country who are now in office.  You see, politics is really only local, locally.  When the elected officials in Washington make decisions, those decisions affect me.  Those decisions affect the entire country, not just the people who voted for them in their districts, but EVERYONE.   Mr. Renacci is keeping his promise, and if he doesn't, we'll fire him just the way we fired the Boccieri/Pelosi puppet.  ... (emphasis added/SCPR)

...

ORIGINAL BLOG

The Stark County Political Report was the first Stark County media to figure out early on that John Boccieri as congressman would follow the Democratic Party line whether or not it was in the interest of 16th District residents.

Boccieri feigned as if he was going to vote NO on Cap and Trade legislation which was designed to limit the production of hydrocarbon into the atmosphere. But the reality of his "Congress on Your Corner" presentations was that his "bob and weave" maneuvers were that they employed in order to make 16th District voters think that Boccieri mulled over each and every piece of legislation that came along to determine the interests of his constituents and to vote accordingly.

One of Congressman Jim Renacci's main campaign themes was that Boccieri was a Pelosi/Democratic Party loyalist first and foremost voting 94% of the time with the party line. Here is a video of Renacci on the campaign stump on September 7, 2009:



Yesterday, Congressman Renacci voted along with 240 other Republicans for HR 2 in lock-step.

 For anyone who thought that Renacci might distinguish himself in standing apart from the Republican Party/Tea Party line ("Kill the Bill") on Health Care legislation inasmuch as he openly admitted in pre-vote media interview that even from his perspective, there were features of the Democrat's bill which are good and need to be retained; perish the thought.

The SCPR's take on Renacci is that he is "samo-samo" and he will end up with a loyalty vote percentage the equal or higher than Boccieri's.

Time will tell, but the SCPR will be tracking Reancci's each and every vote.

With redistricting in the offing due to Ohio's loss of two congressional seats due to population loss, there is little likelihood that the 16th will remain as it is and that there will be a Bocciceri rematch. Nevertheless, Renacci better hope he gets a politically safer district because if he does, as The Report believes he will, and consistently voters the Boehner/Republican Party line in the face of his constituents' interests, he will need a "we elect Republicans no matter what district" in order to return to Congress in 2013.

Increasingly, competitive political districts do not allow for either Republicans or Democrats to vote the party line.