BY THE "VOTING" NUMBERS
THE BRUNCKHART FACTOR
In that initial blog, The Report set up the structure for the entire series, to wit:
- The Brunckhart Factor,
- The Candidates' Health, and
- The Candidates' Demeanor
Moreover, yours truly may add factors from time-to-time.
Today is an instance in which a "by the numbers" factor is added.
BY THE NUMBERS
Today the SCPR turns to a primarily "by the numbers" analysis as to discerning from:
- the 2011 Democratic primary election numbers (Catazaro-Perry versus Cicchinelli),
- the 2015 Democratic primary election (Catazaro-Perry versus Ress), and
- the 2011 Republican numbers in the GOP's primary and in the general election in terms of getting a look at the strength of the Republican vote in Massillon and at Republican candidate Lee Brunckhart's strength as a vote-getter.
Looking at the numbers that The Report drew from official online reports from the Stark County Board of Elections, it appears that "independent" candidate Frank Cicchinelli has a good chance of reclaiming the office he held as a Democrat for some 28 years only to be up-ended by then Ward 3 Democratic councilwoman Kathy Catazaro-Perry.
Catazaro-Perry was - so to speak - "the designated hitter" for the real opposition to Cicchinelli.
Going back to the days that they were fellow students at Kent State University - Stark, Cicchinelli and one Johnnie A. Maier, Jr. have been competitive with one another.
But as far as the SCPR knows, there has never been a head to head.
The fights appear to always take place through their respective proxies.
In the 2011 Democratic primary between Cicchinelli and Catazaro-Perry (KCP) as the blue shaded numbers indicate, it was all KCP!
Cicchinelli only won 4 of Massillon's 26 wards and two of them by only '1' (1E) and '2' (3E) votes, respectively.
Quite a drubbing, no?
But by the SCPR's analysis of the numbers and Catazaro-Perry having a record as mayor, the 2015 "general election" results figures to much rosier for Cicchinelli.
A clue on the results of the 2015 general election is to be had by looking at J. David Ress's numbers in his primary fight with incumbent Mayor Kathy.
The Massillon mayoralty 2015 Democratic primary results really was astonishing to the chagrin, no doubt, to the incumbent mayor.
Catazaro-Perry wins 13 wards, Ress 12 wards and one tie (1D).
No wonder Cicchinelli was chomping at the bit to change political affiliation and get into a re-match with Catazaro-Perry.
Getting deeper into the SCPR's "by the numbers" analysis, take a look at this chart:
Focus on the "Flip 2015?" column.
Where a highlighted * appears, The Report analyzes, either by virtue of Cicchinelli's numbers (where check marked in the above graphic) in the 2011 Democratic primary in relation to KCP's or by virtue of the closeness of the Ress/KCP vote in the 2015 Democratic primary, that there is an opportunity for Cicchinelli to win said highlighted * wards in the upcoming November 3rd election.
Where a highlighted # appears, J. David Ress's performance in this year's Democratic primary offers hope to Cicchinelli that he can turn around in marked deficit to the mayor in the 2011 Dems' primary.
THE BRUNCKHART FACTOR
In a word or two or three, the SCPR thinks Republican Lee Brunckhart will be a non-factor and that he will do much worse in 2015 than he did in 2011.
To the degree Brunckhart cannot maintain his percentage of the vote in the 2011 general election head-to-head vote with Mayor Catazaro-Perry in 2015, guess who the beneficiary is likely to be?
You've got it: Franchis H. Cicchinelli, Jr!
The Report hears that Cicchinelli is working very, very hard in Ward 6 in order to capitalize on the wins that J. David Ress had over Catazaro-Perry in this year's Democratic primary election.
In general, the SCPR thinks that Republicans who do not want to back a "sure to lose" candidate will opt to vote for Cicchinelli.
It does appear that a Cicchinelli victory is in the offing in less than five weeks, but the SCPR's calculus is that it is far from a sure thing.
Cicchinelli is running a much more "in your face" campaign than he did in the 2011 Democratic primary and it will probably pay off come November 3rd.