BIG BUCKS FIGHT
IN TERMS OF PRIMARY ELECTIONS
BETWEEN SMITH & MUNGO!
IN TERMS OF PRIMARY ELECTIONS
BETWEEN SMITH & MUNGO!
HARD WORK
FUNDRAISING EDGE
HAS
SMELL OF A
FISHER POLITICAL UPSET IN THE MAKING?
Yesterday, candidates for the March 15, 2016 primary election filed their pre-primary campaign finance reports (CFR).
On the Republican side of the race to succeed Tom Bernabei (on January 1, 2017) as Stark County commissioner with his being elected in November, 2015 as mayor of Canton it is difficult to tell who might be the winner in the upcoming primary election.
Sometimes one can tell from campaign finance reports that the outcome of the election is trending towards one candidate or another.
Take a look at the list of the contributors for each of the Republican candidates. (LINK to previous blog(s) on this race)
First, Dave Mungo of Alliance.
Next, Smith's:
Unless there is a groundswell of big name Republican contributors, it appears that Smith could be in trouble in terms of making it out of the Republican primary.
Both Mungo and Smith have put $25,000 each of their own money into the campaign.
However, Mungo has the more impressive list of number of other persons contributors and the amounts contributed.
Most local political observers seem to think Smith will come out victorious on the 15th by virtue of his having been a Canton Township trustee for 14 years as contrasted to Mungo being a first-timer as a candidate.
One would think that by the time a week from this Tuesday rolls around, the combination of the two should have spent most if not all of the combined $72,000 in revenues they have raised for there is no tomorrow for the loser.
The SCPR expects Smith to win, but it appears that Mungo has done the better job in the campaign finance aspect of the contest.
Take a look at each Republican candidate's full CFR.
SMITH
MUNGO
On the Democratic side of the race, the SCPR's analysis is that it is clear that Kevin Fisher has worked harder in the door-to-door part of the campaign and, though under state Representative Stephen Slesnick in total reported pre-primary fundraising, his contributors list is far more impressive and meaningful than Slesnick's. (LINK to prior blogs on Democratic side)
Take a look at their respective contributor lists.
Fisher:
Slesnick:
If out-of-towners (Slesnick's Columbus connections by virtue of being a Democratic state representative for eight years [District 52 & now 49]) are difference makers, then Slesnick is far and away more impressive than Fisher.
Fisher more than matches Slesnick on Stark County-based officialdom financial involvement in their respective campaigns and obviously is the clear choice among Stark County unionists.
As important as the union campaign money is to Fisher, the really significant thing about union support is that along with campaign cash come "boots-on-the-ground" which translates into the "bread and butter" of political campaigns which along with direct mail literature getting into the hands of folks who will actually vote usually is predictive of victory.
Accordingly, it would not surprise the SCPR in the slightest if Fisher were to win on the 15th.
The conventional wisdom among Stark's politicos is that Ferguson will win because of his previous stint as commissioner (2009–2012) which in large part occurred because Ferguson seemingly has as a chiropractor treated nearly every ailing Stark County citizen for back aches and the like.
But he is not expending nearly the effort that Fisher is. Nor is Slesnick.
And Ferguson's contributor's list is totally unimpressive:
As Eric Canton of Virginia proved several years ago as the U.S. House of Representative second most powerful member, a candidate should never take anything for granted.
Especially so when the opponent is out working everybody else in the field of candidates.
This Democratic side of the race to succeed Bernabei may be extremely close and it could be that the few votes that Katherine Baylock will get might be a difference maker.
Katherine Baylock has absolutely no chance to win on the 15th, but she might make Ferguson, Fisher or Slesnick a winner.
When Bernabei ran in the general election of 2010, he would not have won were it not for the drain off of votes from the Republican candidate (Jackson trustee James N. Walters) but for the presence of a third candidate.
Baylock should consider it a "moral victory" if she tips the election in one direction or another.
She only raised $180 in the pre-primary period of fundraising.
What follows is her complete pre-primary CFR followed by Slesnick's, Feguson's and Fisher's, in that order.
BAYLOCK
FERGUSON
FISHER
SLESNICK
No comments:
Post a Comment