UPDATE: (11/06/2012-3:32 PM) HAS NATE SILVER OF THE 538 BLOG GOTTEN IT RIGHT? OBAMA HAS 90.9% CHANCE OF BEING REELECTED. ALSO, A 91% CHANCE TO WIN OHIO. WILL HE WIN STARK AND HELP McDONALD (SHERIFF) & SMUCKLER (COMMISSIONER) WITH THE "COATTAILS EFFECT?"

Better than predicting today's election result is to deal with "probabilities" a la Nate Silver (LINK) of the 538 political blog located on the NY Times website.

The SCPR only pays attention to two organizations that deal with polling of elections.

The second in line is Charlie Cook's "Cook's Political Report.  But first in line is Nate Silver's 538 political blog.

In the 2008 presidential election, Silver corrected called the probabilities for Obama in 49 of 50 states.

This year he is at 90.9% in terms of "probability" that President Obama will be reelected.

 

Almost matched by his "forecast" (note:  not a prediction) at the national level is his "probability" (91.8%:  up from the 87% forecast just yesterday) that Obama wins Ohio.

And he has Democrat Sherrod Brown "probably" defeating Republican Josh Mandel.  And a high "probability" indeed:  96%.

As reported by the SCPR on Friday, the Healy-Abrams (Democrat)/Gibbs (Republican incumbent) race is thought to be safe for Gibbs.

However, the Renacci (Republican incumbent -16th) and Sutton (Democrat incumbent - 13th) race, who are squaring off against one another in the "new 16th" congressional district because of decennial constitutionally required redistricting because Ohio's loss of population results in Ohio losing two congressional seats, is truly "too close to call, meaning that the probabilities are 50/50 across the district.

The SCPR does believe that Renacci will win in Stark.

Why?

Because he and Betty Sutton only has Jackson Township, Lawrence Township (Canal Fulton) and part of Lake Township to deal with.  All of these parts of Stark County are known to be Republican indexed and therefore The Report believes he will best Sutton in the Stark County part of the district.

And he likely wins in Wayne County and the parts of Medina County in the 16th.

But it may be a different story over the rest of the district, especially in the northern and northwest parts of the newly configured district.

If Obama has polls well in the 16th overall, then he might well pull Sutton through.

When Statehouse Republicans (including Marlboro's Christina Hagan [the 50th House District] and Plain's Scott Oelslager [the 29th Senate District]) did their gerrymandering redistricting (but not Kirk Schuring who is running in the "new" 48th), they helped carve Stark up into three congressional districts:  the 7th (Bob Gibbs/Joyce Healy-Abrams}, the 13th (Tim Ryan/Marisha Agana) and, of course, the 16th (Jim Renacci/Betty Sutton).

Christina Hagan, in particular, said the slicing and dicing of Stark County was a good thing when it happened.

In her warped and highly partisan way of thinking.  Former 16th District congressman Ralph Regula takes great exception to her as did Schuring.

Ryan will win easily in the 13th over Agana.

But how about local to Stark County contested races?

The SCPR sees that there are only two contests that could go either way.

The commissioners face off between former Stark County commissioner and Republican Richard Regula and former Canton councilman and Democrat Bill Smuckler is one such race.

The other is the sheriff's match up of Republican Larry Dordea and Chief Deputy Sheriff Mike McDonald (a Democrat).

Who is likely to win in these two races?

In the opinion of the SCPR, it depends on whether or not President Obama wins Stark County, and, if so, by how much.  A comfortable Obama win (let's say five percentage points, which The Report thinks is unlikely) would likely mean Smuckler and McDonald wins in a high degree of Silver's "probability."

Any thing less that five percent, it could mean that we will not know on election night which of the candidates for commissioner and sheriff have won.

If Romney wins in Stark, then the SCPR thinks there is a high probability that Regula and Dordea win.

There you have it folks.

Have a great election day and BE SURE TO VOTE!

RENACCI/SUTTON RACE: THE 16TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT - STARK HOLDS THE KEY OR NOT? ALSO, ACCORDING TO NATE SLIVER, OBAMA IS FAVORITE TO WIN IN ELECTORAL COLLEGE (INCL: OHIO). WILL OBAMA PUT SUTTON OVER THE TOP?

UPDATE:  2:30 PM

Nov. 1: The Simple Case for Saying Obama Is the Favorite (LINK).

By NATE SILVER (FiveThirtyEight Blog)

ORIGINAL BLOG

It appears pretty clear that Republican Congressman Bob Gibbs will defeat Democratic challenger Joyce Healy-Abrams in the 7th Congressional District which encompasses Canton and most of the Stark County landmass.

And it seems highly likely that Democrat Tim Ryan will best his Republican opponent in the 13th Congressional District which contains the Alliance area of Stark County.

So whether or not Stark County will be mostly represented by Republicans or Democrats in the United States House of Representatives will boil down to the outcome of the Renacci (R - Wadsworth) versus Sutton (D - Copley) race in the newly constituted (because of redistricting as a result of a population loss in the 2010 census resulting in an Ohio two seat loss) 16th Congressional District.

And the 16th in terms of who will win has been swinging back and forth like a pendulum on the move and where it stops nobody seems to know.

The SCPR believes that the Renacci/Sutton winner in the 16th will be tied to whom among Barack Obama and Mitt Romney wins in the district.

For The Report the most reliable polling on the presidential race comes from Nate Silver's 538 blog.

Silver has Obama at a 80% chance of winning Ohio.

If 2012 was not a presidential year, the SCPR believes that his race would definitely be won by Jim Renacci.

About 50% of the district contains areas from his old district whereas Sutton only brings about 23% of her old district (the 13th) into the newly constituted 16th.

What role will Stark County (as well as nearby Summit and Portage County parts of the district) play in the outcome in this presidential year?

Stark (Jackson, Lawrence and part of Lake Township) will likely deliver a solid majority vote to Romney and Renacci only to be offset by the Summit and Portage sectors of the 16th for Obama and Sutton.

The Wayne and Medina County portions of the district will be solid Romney/Renacci territory.

So the key to the outcome of Renacci/Sutton is not going to be Stark.  But rather it seems to the SCPR that the Cuyahoga County (western Cleveland suburbs) portion of the district will be determinative.

However, to repeat, the net effect of the presidential side of the vote in the district is what puts Betty Sutton in play.

Consequently, the Renacci/Sutton race could either way.

STARK COUNTY TRENDING OBAMA? IF SO, HOW WILL THE TREND PLAY OUT IN STARK COUNTY RACES?

Updated:  4:30 PM

On Tuesday night yours truly was watching CNN when up popped a graphic of Ohio in a political analysis piece by John King.

What was different about this particular graphic is that it showed county detail as to how Obama was achieving an 8% point lead.  And, Stark County is being shown in the "blue" (Democratic) column.

While CNN has not revealed the actual county percentage breakdown, that Stark is shown in "blue" (indicating an Obama win) could have a impact of how Stark County races (in whole or in part [i.e. the congressional races]) could play out.

As the SCPR sees it, the Obama advantage, if it holds, bodes well for Democrats running in "close" countywide races.

The Report believes that there are two close countywide match ups:  McDonald (D) versus Dordea (R) for sheriff and Regula (R) versus Smuckler (D) for county commissioner.

Moreover, it appears that the 16th (Renacci [R] versus Sutton [D]) and 7th (Healy-Abrams [D] versus Gibbs [R]) congressional races are close.  In each of these races, only part of Stark County is in play.

• On the Regula/Smuckler race:
• Smuckler is a Canton politician  (served for years on Canton City Council and ran for mayor twice; losing both tries) who has no countywide "running for office experience" whereas Regula does.  
• Regula lost in a county treasurer race against Gary Zeigler in 2000 and again to political upstart Todd Bosley in 2006 for county commissioner.  Regula was running as an incumbent.
• The SCPR is told that Regula is a "born-again" politician who has mended his lazy campaigning style and is determined to take advantage of the Regula name (he is the son of former long-term Republican congressman Ralph Regula) and having been a commissioner in order to best Smuckler.
• Smuckler understands that it is not the best political background for a Canton politician to be running countywide as a Democrat.  Even the Canton popular  politician Tom Bernabei (a former Canton councilman and long-term law director) would have lost his 2010 contest for county commissioner against James Walters had a conservative independent candidate not been in the race.
• Who wins?  It depends.  If Obama wins by a healthy margin in Stark, it will likely be Smuckler,  If Obama squeaks by, then it is anybody's guess.  If Romney wins Stark, the it looks like a Richard Regula victory.

• On the McDonald/Dordea race:
• Larry Dordea (Chief of Police in Hartville, a former Alliance police chief and an Alliance councilman-at-large) ran a very solid race against retiring sheriff Tim Swanson back in 2008.  Dordea's prior countywide exposure should give him an advantage.  Moreover, he enjoys a solid reputation as a first rate law enforcer among the Stark law enforcement community. Among the Dordea endorsers from the Stark County police community are:
• the Alliance Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 73, and
• Mike Grimes, retired North Canton police chief.
•  Mike McDonald has been one of Swanson's top two men as chief deputy of the Stark County Jail Division for years.  While he has never run for office before, he has been a highly visible chief deputy (with plenty of press over the years) and is well liked and well respected within the Stark County policing community.  Among McDonald's endorsements are from the police community are:
• the Canton Police Patrolmen's Association
• the Fraternal Order of Police McKinley Lodge #2, and, of course,
• Sheriff Tim Swanson.
• One of the questions about McDonald is whether or not his ties to Swanson (who has generated some political controversy in being a strong supporter of former Stark County treasurer Gary Zeigler and in supporting the 2008 commissioner decision [Bosley, Harmon and Vignos] to "impose" a 0.5% sales tax) will rub off on him in a "guilt by association" fashion.
• Another concern has been his health.  Some months ago McDonald let it be known that he was suffering from esophageal cancer.  But he has told the SCPR that treatment has been successful and he is fit to run.
• Who wins?  The SCPR believes that Dordea is the odds-on-favorite win but that a big Obama win in Stark County could allow McDonald to eke out a narrow victory.

•  On the Renacci/Sutton race:
• The Renacci/Sutton face-off (two incumbent members of Congress running against each other because of redistricting) is likely to be a nail-biter.
• A poll done months ago showed Sutton ahead by the very slightest of margins.  
• As the SCPR sees this race, Sutton likely ousts Renacci if the Obama numbers hold up at half the plurality of the CNN numbers or the ten point statewide Ohio poll favoring Obama published yesterday by Quinnipiac/CBS News/NY Times.
• For Renacci to win, Romney is going to have to make a miraculous recovery in the dimensions of making the presidential race a dead heat by November 6th.

• On the Healy-Abrams/Gibbs race:
• In the Healy-Abrams/Gibbs match up, The Report believes that Healy-Abrams is within hailing difference and could be posed to pull off an upset.
• The Report is told that Obama lost the district that now composes the area covered by the 7th congressional district 52% to 48% to John McCain in 2008 whereas Sherrod Brown (D - incumbent U.S. Senator ran at 56% in 2006),
• Being a political neophyte, Healy-Abrams certainly will not poll higher than President Obama.  So if there is a case for a down-ticket-effect to drag a candidate to victory, this contest is one where strong Obama numbers will be needed for Healy-Abrams to pull the upset.
• A marginal victory in Stark and other parts of the district is not likely to be enough to produce a Healy-Abrams victory.

Other Stark County races are likely to be unaffected in terms of outcome no matter what happens at the presidential level.

The Report expects Democrats Ferrero (prosecutor), Murthy (coroner), Campbell (recorder) and Reinbold (clerk of courts) to win with comfortable margins even if Romney were to take Stark County.  Moreover, Republican Alex Zumbar wins retention as the Stark County treasurer even in the face of an Obama Stark County landslide victory, should such a turn out to be the case.

Also,  in the Stark County-based Ohio House District races, Democrat Stephen Slesnick (the 49th), Republicans Kirk Schuring and Christina Hagan should win in a walk and whom between Obama and Romney piles up Stark County presidential votes will not affect the outcome of the final result.

HAS 16TH DISTRICT INCUMBENT CONGRESSMAN JIM RENACCI OUTFOXED HIMSELF ON REDISTRICTING THE 16TH?

To the Stark County Political Report it is "unreal" that "Real Clear Politics" can rank the 16th congressional district race (which includes a part of Stark County) a "toss up."

It appears to The Report that Renacci was pretty much given carte blanche by Republican Speaker of the U.S. House John Boehner (Republican - Ohio's 8th) in directing the gerrymandering Republican faction controlling the Ohio General Assembly as to what his new district (as a consequence of Ohio's loss of decennial population causing a loss of two Ohio congressional seats and required redistricting) should look like.

To be sure, he did come away with a Republican leaning district.

Here is a chart that shows the "favorable" Republican index.

But it seems to the SCPR that it may be the wrong mix insofar as Renacci's political fortunes are concerned.

The Report believes that it was a major goof up on Renacci's part to allow Stark County to be fragmented into three districts in the new Congress.   And the screw up could cost Stark County GOP chairman and executive director of the Stark County Board of Elections Jeff Matthews' wife Heidi her job as a congressional staff member.

Readers of the SCPR will recall that Matthews and Republican state Representative Christina Hagan (the 50th - Marlboro) said that they thought that Stark being politically fragmented was a good thing for Stark.  For it would give Stark Countians three congresspersons to beseech for help in dealing with countians federal government problems or in providing access.

Of course, being the avowed partisans they are, Hagan and Matthews failed to factor in a possiblility that the division might result in perhaps all three districts be represented by Democrats

Hmm?

So Stark County in the new congress will be the 7th with Republican Bob Gibbs as the incumbent; the 13th with Democrat Tim Ryan as the incumbent; and the 16th which should be advantage Renacci even though he is running against fellow-incumbent-but-Democrat Betty Sutton.

It is The Report's belief that had Renacci left Stark entirely within the "new" 16th, he would pretty much as been a shoe-in to win re-election no matter how the national political factor (i.e. the Obama/Romney) played in and having an incumbent Democrat running against him.

That the implication of this language of an column by Brent Larkin of the Plain Dealer:

The obscene redrawing of Ohio's congressional boundaries by Ohio's Republican-run legislature -- done with lots of guidance from Speaker Boehner -- has shifted the most important part of Renacci's district away from Canton into the western suburbs of Cuyahoga County (Ohio's 16th District's new boundaries will another donneybrook, June 17, 2012)

Reason?

Betty Sutton is unknown in Stark County.  What's more she is a political liberal who will not play all that well in Stark County.  And her anemic Stark County effort in the areas that remain in the 16th betray her belief that Stark County is not fertile political ground for her.

So Renacci could expect to win by a healthy margin in Stark no matter if Obama wins a majority of Stark County voters.  For if Obama does get a majority, it will be by slim numbers and there will be very little, if any, "coattails effect" for Sutton.

As it is, Renacci will most certainly pile up a solid win in those parts of Stark that remain in the 16th:  Jackson township, part of Lake township and Lawrence township (including Canal Fulton).

But in allowing significant parts of staunch Democratic Summit County and Portage County as well as Cleveland's west Republican leaning suburbs of Strongsville, Middleburg Heights, Parma Heights, Parma, North Olmsted, Olmsted Falls, Fairview Park, Rocky River and Westlake to take root in the new 16th as an acceptable substitution for the remainder of Stark,  the SCPR believes that Renacci may have unwittingly sowed the seeds of his defeat on November 8th.

The converse of the Stark County situation exists for Renacci in the Cleveland suburbs.  While yes they are Republican leaning, Renacci is not that well known in those areas and thus Sutton has a better opportunity to make inroads on the independent set (voters who are registered non-partisans, but are likely Republican-leaning independents) in the burbs.

He thought he had pulled a coup in forking down deep into Canton (Democratic Councilman Kevin Fisher's 5th Ward) to capture The Timken Company complex.  But The Report hears that his advisers even screwed this move up in that the lines failed to include the part of the Timken complex that includes "the fundraising side," of the complex.

If Renacci retains his seat (which the SCPR would not count out by any measure), he can thank his lucky stars, not his disasterous redistricting wheeling and dealing.

For it is obvious it has put him into the political fight of his life!