ELECTION ANALYSIS: U.S. SENATE CANDIDATE JOSH MANDEL NEEDS TO LEARN TO ANSWER THE QUESTION ASKED. AND SINCE HE WOULD NOT: WHBC'S RON PONDER HUNG UP ON HIM!

Republican United States Senate candidate Josh Mandel should have had a premonition after his October 11th radio interview (LINK - for full interview) with WHBC1480 's Ron Ponder (Points to Ponder) that November 6th was not going to go all that well for him.

Mandel's responses were "political spin" all the way and NOT responsive to Ponder.

While Ponder actually asked a number of questions (e.g. "how's the campaign going," Mandel's auto industry bailout viewpoint, et cetera), the interview from the perspective of the SCPR really boiled down to Mandel avoiding Ponder's pointed questions:

• in talking over Ponder, and 
• in trying to force a redirection of the dialogue from the question asked to Mandel campaign political propaganda points.

But Ponder was having none of it.  He ended up directing his Points to Ponder assistant Stephon King to hang up on Mandel.

The focal point of the redirection effort was on the question of allegations that Mandel has full blown political cronyism going on in his office.

An example.

“[Ponder to Mandel] Joe Aquilino, I believe you pronounce his name, a former campaign aide, was named director of debt management, paid $90,000, had no experience in finance and you sent him to a beginner’s course in the subject. How do you answer those charges?"

This specific Ponder question was one of a line of questions that had to do with Mandel's 2010 (campaign for Ohio treasurer) statement that, if elected he would have qualified financial professionals manning the state treasury.

Other questions had to do with:

• Mandel's 27 year old former campaign manager (the Mandel for Treasurer campaign) getting a $100,000 position; having worked for Mandel as a legislative aide at $13.85 hourly), and
• Seth Metcalf, a Mandel college buddy, being paid $150,000 as a member of Mandel's treasury staff as general legal counsel and chief financial officer.  (Metcalf ran Mandel's campaign at The Ohio State University in his quest to become student government president).

Mandel's response?

Talking points, that's what:

• "we've (the treasurer's office) earned the highest rating on our bonds,"
• "we've earned the highest rating on our investments," et cetera, and
  
• "you talk about someone who has served himself, talk about Sherrod Brown ... ."

Ponder comes back:

• "the question is Josh, it's a pretty simple question, when you were running against Kevin Boyce you accused him of filling the treasurer's office with his friends and cronies,"
• "now the Democrats are accusing you of the same thing, so I am just asking you the question about the salaries and the folks you have hired ... ."

Mandel responded not with specific answers to the Aquilino, Lord and Metcalf and whether or not they represent cronyism in the Ohio Department of the Treasury, but with the political-spin-talking-points answer of guess what?

"We have qualified financial professional in our office."

Here is the reduced version (to the cronyism question) of the Ponder interview of Mandel that went viral on YouTube:



A SCPR "hats off" to Ponder.

Ponder maintained control of the interview and thereby put Mandel on notice that some journalists will ask probing questions and will not allow a spinmeister candidate such as Mandel to twist an exchange into a spewing of political propaganda.

Ohioans and Stark Countians should be pleased that Josh Mandel was not elected U.S. Senator from the great state of Ohio.

Brown is 59, Mandel is 35 and the difference in maturity showed big time in their respective interviews with Ponder.

It is distressing that the "not wet behind the ears" Mandel (as described by Sherrod Brown), who announced mere months after taking office as treasurer that he was running for the Senate, could garner the support of 45% of Ohioans and Stark Countians.

But when you have upwards of $40 million of campaign finance resources (direct and indirect) to wage a campaign with, "you are going to be able to fool some of the people some of the time."

The good news is that there were enough Ohioans savvy enough about what Josh Mandel is really about to turn back the unseemly Ohio treasurer from achieving higher political office.

The bad news is that he is only 35.

Undoubtedly and unfortunately, we have not heard the last of Josh Mandel.

But maybe, just maybe, Ron Ponder's interview (a portion of which went viral on YouTube) went a long way towards wising Ohioans up as what Josh Mandel is all about.

And just what is that?

Josh Mandel and only Josh Mandel many times.

He is a prime example of being an aspiring politician consumed with himself!

The sooner Ohioans catch on to what Mandel is all about, the better of we will all be!

UPDATE: (11/06/2012-3:32 PM) HAS NATE SILVER OF THE 538 BLOG GOTTEN IT RIGHT? OBAMA HAS 90.9% CHANCE OF BEING REELECTED. ALSO, A 91% CHANCE TO WIN OHIO. WILL HE WIN STARK AND HELP McDONALD (SHERIFF) & SMUCKLER (COMMISSIONER) WITH THE "COATTAILS EFFECT?"

Better than predicting today's election result is to deal with "probabilities" a la Nate Silver (LINK) of the 538 political blog located on the NY Times website.

The SCPR only pays attention to two organizations that deal with polling of elections.

The second in line is Charlie Cook's "Cook's Political Report.  But first in line is Nate Silver's 538 political blog.

In the 2008 presidential election, Silver corrected called the probabilities for Obama in 49 of 50 states.

This year he is at 90.9% in terms of "probability" that President Obama will be reelected.

 

Almost matched by his "forecast" (note:  not a prediction) at the national level is his "probability" (91.8%:  up from the 87% forecast just yesterday) that Obama wins Ohio.

And he has Democrat Sherrod Brown "probably" defeating Republican Josh Mandel.  And a high "probability" indeed:  96%.

As reported by the SCPR on Friday, the Healy-Abrams (Democrat)/Gibbs (Republican incumbent) race is thought to be safe for Gibbs.

However, the Renacci (Republican incumbent -16th) and Sutton (Democrat incumbent - 13th) race, who are squaring off against one another in the "new 16th" congressional district because of decennial constitutionally required redistricting because Ohio's loss of population results in Ohio losing two congressional seats, is truly "too close to call, meaning that the probabilities are 50/50 across the district.

The SCPR does believe that Renacci will win in Stark.

Why?

Because he and Betty Sutton only has Jackson Township, Lawrence Township (Canal Fulton) and part of Lake Township to deal with.  All of these parts of Stark County are known to be Republican indexed and therefore The Report believes he will best Sutton in the Stark County part of the district.

And he likely wins in Wayne County and the parts of Medina County in the 16th.

But it may be a different story over the rest of the district, especially in the northern and northwest parts of the newly configured district.

If Obama has polls well in the 16th overall, then he might well pull Sutton through.

When Statehouse Republicans (including Marlboro's Christina Hagan [the 50th House District] and Plain's Scott Oelslager [the 29th Senate District]) did their gerrymandering redistricting (but not Kirk Schuring who is running in the "new" 48th), they helped carve Stark up into three congressional districts:  the 7th (Bob Gibbs/Joyce Healy-Abrams}, the 13th (Tim Ryan/Marisha Agana) and, of course, the 16th (Jim Renacci/Betty Sutton).

Christina Hagan, in particular, said the slicing and dicing of Stark County was a good thing when it happened.

In her warped and highly partisan way of thinking.  Former 16th District congressman Ralph Regula takes great exception to her as did Schuring.

Ryan will win easily in the 13th over Agana.

But how about local to Stark County contested races?

The SCPR sees that there are only two contests that could go either way.

The commissioners face off between former Stark County commissioner and Republican Richard Regula and former Canton councilman and Democrat Bill Smuckler is one such race.

The other is the sheriff's match up of Republican Larry Dordea and Chief Deputy Sheriff Mike McDonald (a Democrat).

Who is likely to win in these two races?

In the opinion of the SCPR, it depends on whether or not President Obama wins Stark County, and, if so, by how much.  A comfortable Obama win (let's say five percentage points, which The Report thinks is unlikely) would likely mean Smuckler and McDonald wins in a high degree of Silver's "probability."

Any thing less that five percent, it could mean that we will not know on election night which of the candidates for commissioner and sheriff have won.

If Romney wins in Stark, then the SCPR thinks there is a high probability that Regula and Dordea win.

There you have it folks.

Have a great election day and BE SURE TO VOTE!

SHERROD BROWN HEADED TO VICTORY OVER MANDEL IN STARK COUNTY AS A BELLWEATHER FOR ALL OF OHIO?

It has been a mystery why Republican Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel has been polling relatively close to Democratic United States Senator Sherrod Brown.

Brown has been a political factor in Ohio since 1974 when he was elected to the Ohio House (1975 - 1982).  He continued his political trek in being elected to and serving as Ohio secretary of state (1983 - 1991), U.S. House of Representatives (1993 - 2007) and, of course, as U.S. senator ever since.

Mandel, (who, before running for office, was a Democrat) on the other hand, has only been engaged in Ohio politics since 2006 when he was elected to the Ohio House (2007 - 2010). In 2010 he ran for and was elected Ohio treasurer.  No sooner had he taken office at the Ohio treasury, he was fueling speculation that the treasury was merely a political holding place for him and that he aimed at taking on Brown.

On August 26th The Columbus Dispatch published a poll showing Brown and Mandel tied at 44% each.

Well, it is becoming clearer and clearer that the mysteriously close numbers may beginning may be mirage of sorts.

To The Report, for Mandel to be tied with Brown did not make sense.  For back in 2006 when Brown took on sitting United States Senator Mike DeWine, he ended up with about a 15% margin of victory.

2006 was a Democratic year.  It was a year in which Democrat Ted Strickland pummeled Republican Ken Blackwell and the anemic Democratic Ohio House Caucus was able to wrestle control of the Ohio House from the Republicans.

So the SCPR wasn't expecting Brown to repeat a 15% margin in 2012 no matter who the Republicans put up.

2012 is not going to be a banner Democratic year.

But Democrats - nationwide - are doing better than expected given a better that 8% unemployment rate.

Ohio's unemployment rate is in the low 7% range which is a factor which should benefit President Obama, Senator Brown and a number of down ticket Democrats inasmuch as Obama is claiming his bailout of the auto industry has particularly benefiting Ohio and it seems the voting public is buying.

Hence a poll published by The Dispatch on Monday of this week shows Obama ahead (9%) and Brown ahead by 10% (49 to 39).

At 49 percent, Brown is very close to the magic eletoral victory number of 50% plus one.

While The Report does not necessarily expect Brown to duplicate the 15% victory over DeWine (now Ohio's attorney general), it could happen especially if the President continues to widen his polling margin over Republican Mitt Romney.

There is no reason to believe - Mandel's prostestations to the contrary that his candidacy is tied to Romney's- that there is any distinguishing quality about Mandel that separates him from Romney.

He became Ohio's treasurer in 2010 which was a banner Republican year in which the GOP took control of the U.S. House.  This was the year that Republican Jim Renacci (the 16th which then included all of Stark County) took out incumbent Democrat John Boccieri and Republican Bill Johnson defeated incumbent Democrat Charlie Wilson in Ohio's 6th congressional district.

Other than his 2010 victory, Mandel's Ohio House seat was from a safe Republican district (the 17th).

A better case can be made that Brown may run better in Ohio that Obama.

Comparing his 2006 margin of victory of 15% over DeWine to Obama's narrowly winning Ohio in 2008, there is potential that Brown could survive an Obama collapse in the final 30 days of the 2012 election.

Brown did ten percentage point better than Obama comparing 2006 to 2008.

However, each and every election does bring a different dynamic to it and one should not make too much of the disparity that suggests that Brown may be a stronger candidate than President Obama.

But at least Brown has some statistical basis for thinking he might survive an Obama collapse at the polls.

The SCPR believes that should Mitt Romney stay about nine or ten points below Obama over the next 30 days that he will surely lose Ohio and there is no basis whatsoever to support Mandel's chatter that he could survive a Romney collapse.

The SCPR believes that Sherrod Brown will be re-elected to the U.S. Senate no matter how the presidential race plays out.