Saturday, November 12, 2011
A HEALY/CREIGHTON REMATCH EQUALS A HEALY LOSS? A POST ELECTION ANALYSIS OF HEALY V. CONDE
In examining the numbers coming out of Mayor William J. Healy's victory on Tuesday night, one thing stands out to the SCPR.
Healy lost ground 57.76% to 53.13% from the 2007 election.
One might say that "a win is a win is a win is a win."
And for most people, such is a truism.
But not for Mayor Healy. Despite his trying to spin the numbers - and we know that Healy is an incurable spinmeister - in referring to his "overwhelming" victory; such was not the case.
Of course, he would focus on the 53% to 32% Healy/Conde head-to-head numbers. He predictably ignores the 15% anti-Healy votes. Who believe many, if any, of those votes would have gone to Healy?
In reality for him, lost ground, however small - a little over 6 tenths of 1 percent from his 2007 election; he has "zero tolerance" for.
Does anyone doubt that Janet Weir Creighton would have been a much stronger adversary than the combined likes of A.R. "Chip" Conde, Richard Hart and John Miller?
In fact, the SCPR believes that had Creighton rematched with Healy, she likely would have won on Tuesday.
A terrific human being; a politician A.R. "Chip" Conde is not.
As yours truly sat in WHBC's Election Central with co-hosts Ron Ponder, Joe Palmisano, Canton City Councilman Bill Smuckler and Stark County Commissioner Tom Bernabei, the conversation turned to the margin of the Healy victory.
The Report's main point was that 48% of Cantonians (which sank to about 47% by night's end) had said they preferred someone else over William J. Healy, II.
What if, yours truly posited, Conde had had a plan (rather than arguing over endorsements) to present to voters? Would that have been a difference maker?
What if Hart and Miller had not been in the race? Would that have helped Conde?
Knowing Healy, the 47% was not lost on him. Having 47% of the voters reject four years of Healy would not a happy camper Healy, make.
The essence of his post-election-results-message was "we have more work to do." This is Healy's way of registering disappointment that 47% of Canton's voters are not happy with the direction Canton is heading.
And he is fortunate that the Republicans put up the non-politician Conde to challenge him.
And he is fortunate that Jeff Matthews is the chairman of the Stark County Republican Party. Matthews couldn't exercise political might on Hart and Miller to keep them out of the race.
Had he been able to do so, it would have been a starker race: Healy one-on-one versus Conde.
A match up structure would have help Conde but that would not have been enough.
Conde needed a plan (a 3-step plan, a 5-step plan, a 7-step plan, whatever) for Canton.
A head-to-head match-up, a clear plan for restoring Canton and coaching to be more politically schooled candidate might have been enough to edge Conde over Healy.
But such was not to be.
It was clear to the SCPR by the onset of summer (when Conde should have be out campaigning as if it was October 31st) that Conde was not going to win.
Healy did win, but it could not have been a satisfying win.
The Report sees Healy as being totally frustrated in his drive to greatness.
It should be obvious to one and all that Healy with his huge ego intends to be Canton's greatest mayor ever.
But right now he is struggling to be significant.
Nothing would be more deflating to William J. Healy, II than to go down in the pantheon of Canton mayors as being one of the many insignificants!