Monday, July 2, 2012


UPDATE:  (03:30)  A "new" Kaiser Family Foundation poll shows 56% of Americans do not want the implementation of the Affordable Care Act blocked.


In March, 2010 the-then 16th District Congressman John Boccieri flip-flopped (having voted against an ealier version of the bill) and announced that he would be voting for the final version of the bill.                                                                                                              That change likely was a primary cause for Bocceri's loss to former Wadworth mayor and Republican Jim Renacci in November, 2010.  Boccieri was not the only Ohio congressperson to go down to defeat in large measure due to Obamacare.  Four other Democrats took it on the political chin.

However, Democratic Congresswoman Betty Sutton (13th District) survived though supporting Obamacare from the get-go.

Now that the United States Supreme Court decided last Thursday that Obamacare does pass constitutional muster, the only way opponents of the bill can get rid of it is to repeal it in a new Congress.

And that is exactly was Renacci is committed to doing.

Renacci faces another fight of his political life as he must square off against 13th District Congresswoman Sutton because the decentenial national census show that an Ohio loss of population mandated that Ohio lose two congressional seats.

Redistricting done by Renacci's Republican pals in the Ohio General Assembly placed Renacci (Wadworth) and Sutton (Copley) in the same district - the 16th under the new congressional map for Ohio.

Anyway you cut it, Obamacare was going to be a big issue between the two in this year's face off as to which of them in going to remain in Congress.

However, with the Supreme Court validating the Affordable Care Act (ACA - aka Obamacare) the battle lines are drawn in a different way.

It could be that when voters are voting on a Renacci/Sutton race the are also voting by the congressional proxy on the issue of whether or not Obamacare gets repealed.

On the issue there is an old fashioned square off between Renacci and Sutton.  Rencci will vote for repeal whereas Sutton will vote to retain the Obamacare.

So the 16th Congressional District could be a barometer of where the country goes on whether or not Obamacare will stick.

Right now a number of  polls indicate a majority of voters (nationwide) are unfavorable towards the ACA.  However, there is a new Kaiser Foundation poll that indicates that 56% are not in favor of blocking implementation of its provisions (LINK).

Accordingly, it appears that Congresswoman Sutton has the burden of convincing 16th District voters that there are reasons why Obamacare is good for them and they therefore ought to vote for her.

Officially, she says that Americans needed to move beyond belaboring the merits/demerits of the law to other issues.

At this time it appears that Renacci is likely to win this race.  But there are still four months to go until the election.

Moreover, it is not just the congressional races which play into the ultimate fate of the ACA, the United States States Senate races loom large including that of Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown versus Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel.  The Senate election out comes are probably more crucial because a change in political party control is much more likely in the Senate.

And, of course, there is the presidential race.  If Barack Obama gets reelected then you can forget Obamacare getting repealed no matter what happens in the House and Senate  because there is no way Republicans can achieve a veto proof override which surely Obama would do if the Republicans can actually pass a repeal.

Stay tuned!

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