Thursday, October 26, 2017

SCPR 2018 ELECTION SERIES: CAN DEMOCRAT HARBAUGH WIN IN +12 REPUBLICAN FAVORABLE INDEX IN THE 7TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT (INCLUDES MOST OF STARK COUNTY)?



It seems that Democrat Kenneth Harbaugh (Biography LINK) of Avon, Ohio is making a serious effort to unseat Republican Bob Gibbs (Biography LINK) in the U.S. House of Representative 7th congressional district which includes most of Stark County.

The latest data from the Federal Election Commission show that challenger Harbaugh is neck-and-neck with incumbent Gibbs.

But Gibbs has nearly $1 million in "cash-on-hand" than Harbaugh.

Being behind by $1 million in campaign cash resources combined with being handicapped minus 12 in terms of voters historically preferring/electing Republicans is one huge hurdle for Harbaugh to overcome.

For this former Navy pilot he is going to have to ramp up his fundraising to at least match Gibb's cash-on-hand warchest to have a fighting chance.

In the 2016 elections, Gibbs (a 35% voter margin of victory) than Donald Trump (30%).

One thing that might play well for Harbaugh is that campaign finance data suggests that Bob Gibbs is part of "the swamp" that Trump campaigned against in 2016.

Seventy (70.2%) of Gibbs campaign fundraising comes from political actions committees (PACs) which is ten times Harbaugh's 7.3%.

In Stark County Gibbs has a big lead on Harbaugh, to wit:

GIBBS LIST


HARBAUGH'S LIST


Time will tell as to whether or not this race can become "truly" competitive.

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