Tuesday, May 22, 2018

SCPR GENERAL ELECTION SERIES: U.S. SENATE - RENACCI CHALLENGES BROWN

UPDATE:  TUESDAY, MAY 22ND
(ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED MAY 14, 2018 AT 06:50 AM)

BROWN OUT OF THE GATE FIRST WITH CAMPAIGN AD

MORE THAN 5 MONTHS BEFORE NOVEMBER 8, 2018



https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/997473843148214272 (Video Link)








BROWN/RENACCI 
PORTRAY THEMSELVES AS "POPULISTS"

LIBERAL BASED/CONSERVATIVE BASED

WHO/WHICH IS THE MOST AUTHENTIC?


U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown (an Ohio elected official in one capacity or another since 1975; folks, that 43 years!)  is about as Democratic and "liberal" as a politician gets.  It makes sense that no Democrat would have wanted to take him on in the recently concluded May 8th Democratic primary.

Moreover, he has solid union support that makes him more of an anathema to the likes of his Republican opponent Jim Renacci who won a competitive race against Clevelander Mike Gibbons on May 8th in the Republican primary.

It would be political coup for Republicans to take out both a "liberal" and a thoroughgoing "union" sympathetic politician.

And yet, "in the belly of the beast of Trumpism" (Ohio), he seems to pretty much be a sure bet to retain his seat in the U.S. Senate come November.

USA Today (LINK) recently wrote a piece on the Renacci/Brown race which appears to be pretty much "right on the mark" in terms of the prospects for the race and is describing the two as having populist appeal.


Another feat in the cap of Brown in terms of his relating to the hoi pollio is the fact that he is  a "poor man's" candidate in terms of his comparative wealth vis-a-vis Renacci.


Renacci (one of the wealthiest Republicans in all the U.S. Congress) who currently represents Ohio's 16th congressional district which includes northern Stark County with a spur reaching down to the Timken complex in the heart of Canton, had this to say in the Washington Examiner article cited in the graphic above for today's blog:

“Ohio is a Trump state, Ohio is going to move forward with the Trump agenda, and Ohio is going to get anybody that’s an obstacle, including Sen. Brown, out of the way ... ."

Recently,  The Stark County Political Report had a brief conversation with a prominent Stark County Republican who spoke favorably of Brown.  Not that The Report thinks this source will actually vote for Brown.  But it is indication that Senator Brown has the grudging respect of elected Republicans notwithstanding his politically standing for what many elected Republican officials loathe.

Apparently, the Republican recalls these election numbers racked up by Brown in Stark County on his being elected to the United States Senate over 2018 Republican gubernatorial standard bearer Mike DeWine and over staunch conservative Republican Josh Mandel in 2012.


But more than the numbers, Brown has a political manner about himself that is appealing to core Democrats for sure but also to a majority of politically independent minded voters and a sprinkling of solidly Republican voters.

But what about Trump voting "blue collar Democrats who voted for Donald J. Trump in 2016?

Because Brown has been against the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) from the get-go.  Moreover, he has been on the record in having grave reservations about the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) even to the point of "applauding" Trump on withdrawing the U.S. from the agreement by presidential executive action.

 He likely will be the continuing beneficiary of "ticket-splitting" (in the sense of departing supporting candidates favorable towards the president) in 2018 notwithstanding Renacci wrapping himself in being "all-things-Trump" in his primary election victory last week over fellow Republican Mike Gibbons.

This from the Washington Examiner piece:

Youngstown is nestled inside Mahoning County, which is home to more veterans than most other parts of the state. It’s also home to the blue collar workers that flipped for Trump.

And they’re still with Trump. Diloreto considers the Russia investigation a “witch hunt” and likes that Trump “speaks the truth.”

But Diloreto is a Brown man, too. He plans to vote for the senator again in November.

“Oh yeah, I think he’s great. I like him, I like his views,” Diloreto said.

The same goes for Susan Krawchyk, an Iraq veteran, who lived in Ohio her entire life until two years ago when she moved to Pennsylvania. She commutes into Youngstown every day for her job at the Mahoning County Veteran Service Commission. She’s voted for Brown in the past and would vote for him again if she could.

Three days before this year's primary election (May 5th), President Trump was Cleveland being "all-in-for-Renacci."

So, Renacci v. Trump (November, 2018) indeed is a referendum on the political coattails effect of the president.

Likely outcome on Brown's fortunes?

From "no effect" to a beneficial effect for Brown.

Witness this segment of the polling results from the Survey USA poll cited above:


Real Clear Politics lists Brown as a more likely than not to be reelected in Ohio.

If incumbency were not enough of an advantage, take a look at the Brown campaign finance $3 Brown to $1 Renacci "cash-on-hand" margin:


As matters stand on May 14, 2018, nearly six months out from the November election, it appears highly likely to the SCPR that Sherrod Brown will be returning to the United States Senate representing the Buckeye State.

The SCPR's take on the two in terms of their populist appeal is that Brown comes across as the more "authentic."

Brown:  modest wealth, Democratic, union supported  and what Trump type voters like to call a "bleeding heart" liberal.

Renacci:  very wealthy, Republican, all-in-Trumper and a "pick yourself up by the bootstrap" conservative.

Enough said?

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