UPDATE: (11/06/2012-3:32 PM) HAS NATE SILVER OF THE 538 BLOG GOTTEN IT RIGHT? OBAMA HAS 90.9% CHANCE OF BEING REELECTED. ALSO, A 91% CHANCE TO WIN OHIO. WILL HE WIN STARK AND HELP McDONALD (SHERIFF) & SMUCKLER (COMMISSIONER) WITH THE "COATTAILS EFFECT?"

Better than predicting today's election result is to deal with "probabilities" a la Nate Silver (LINK) of the 538 political blog located on the NY Times website.

The SCPR only pays attention to two organizations that deal with polling of elections.

The second in line is Charlie Cook's "Cook's Political Report.  But first in line is Nate Silver's 538 political blog.

In the 2008 presidential election, Silver corrected called the probabilities for Obama in 49 of 50 states.

This year he is at 90.9% in terms of "probability" that President Obama will be reelected.

 

Almost matched by his "forecast" (note:  not a prediction) at the national level is his "probability" (91.8%:  up from the 87% forecast just yesterday) that Obama wins Ohio.

And he has Democrat Sherrod Brown "probably" defeating Republican Josh Mandel.  And a high "probability" indeed:  96%.

As reported by the SCPR on Friday, the Healy-Abrams (Democrat)/Gibbs (Republican incumbent) race is thought to be safe for Gibbs.

However, the Renacci (Republican incumbent -16th) and Sutton (Democrat incumbent - 13th) race, who are squaring off against one another in the "new 16th" congressional district because of decennial constitutionally required redistricting because Ohio's loss of population results in Ohio losing two congressional seats, is truly "too close to call, meaning that the probabilities are 50/50 across the district.

The SCPR does believe that Renacci will win in Stark.

Why?

Because he and Betty Sutton only has Jackson Township, Lawrence Township (Canal Fulton) and part of Lake Township to deal with.  All of these parts of Stark County are known to be Republican indexed and therefore The Report believes he will best Sutton in the Stark County part of the district.

And he likely wins in Wayne County and the parts of Medina County in the 16th.

But it may be a different story over the rest of the district, especially in the northern and northwest parts of the newly configured district.

If Obama has polls well in the 16th overall, then he might well pull Sutton through.

When Statehouse Republicans (including Marlboro's Christina Hagan [the 50th House District] and Plain's Scott Oelslager [the 29th Senate District]) did their gerrymandering redistricting (but not Kirk Schuring who is running in the "new" 48th), they helped carve Stark up into three congressional districts:  the 7th (Bob Gibbs/Joyce Healy-Abrams}, the 13th (Tim Ryan/Marisha Agana) and, of course, the 16th (Jim Renacci/Betty Sutton).

Christina Hagan, in particular, said the slicing and dicing of Stark County was a good thing when it happened.

In her warped and highly partisan way of thinking.  Former 16th District congressman Ralph Regula takes great exception to her as did Schuring.

Ryan will win easily in the 13th over Agana.

But how about local to Stark County contested races?

The SCPR sees that there are only two contests that could go either way.

The commissioners face off between former Stark County commissioner and Republican Richard Regula and former Canton councilman and Democrat Bill Smuckler is one such race.

The other is the sheriff's match up of Republican Larry Dordea and Chief Deputy Sheriff Mike McDonald (a Democrat).

Who is likely to win in these two races?

In the opinion of the SCPR, it depends on whether or not President Obama wins Stark County, and, if so, by how much.  A comfortable Obama win (let's say five percentage points, which The Report thinks is unlikely) would likely mean Smuckler and McDonald wins in a high degree of Silver's "probability."

Any thing less that five percent, it could mean that we will not know on election night which of the candidates for commissioner and sheriff have won.

If Romney wins in Stark, then the SCPR thinks there is a high probability that Regula and Dordea win.

There you have it folks.

Have a great election day and BE SURE TO VOTE!

STARK COUNTY TRENDING OBAMA? IF SO, HOW WILL THE TREND PLAY OUT IN STARK COUNTY RACES?

Updated:  4:30 PM

On Tuesday night yours truly was watching CNN when up popped a graphic of Ohio in a political analysis piece by John King.

What was different about this particular graphic is that it showed county detail as to how Obama was achieving an 8% point lead.  And, Stark County is being shown in the "blue" (Democratic) column.

While CNN has not revealed the actual county percentage breakdown, that Stark is shown in "blue" (indicating an Obama win) could have a impact of how Stark County races (in whole or in part [i.e. the congressional races]) could play out.

As the SCPR sees it, the Obama advantage, if it holds, bodes well for Democrats running in "close" countywide races.

The Report believes that there are two close countywide match ups:  McDonald (D) versus Dordea (R) for sheriff and Regula (R) versus Smuckler (D) for county commissioner.

Moreover, it appears that the 16th (Renacci [R] versus Sutton [D]) and 7th (Healy-Abrams [D] versus Gibbs [R]) congressional races are close.  In each of these races, only part of Stark County is in play.

• On the Regula/Smuckler race:
• Smuckler is a Canton politician  (served for years on Canton City Council and ran for mayor twice; losing both tries) who has no countywide "running for office experience" whereas Regula does.  
• Regula lost in a county treasurer race against Gary Zeigler in 2000 and again to political upstart Todd Bosley in 2006 for county commissioner.  Regula was running as an incumbent.
• The SCPR is told that Regula is a "born-again" politician who has mended his lazy campaigning style and is determined to take advantage of the Regula name (he is the son of former long-term Republican congressman Ralph Regula) and having been a commissioner in order to best Smuckler.
• Smuckler understands that it is not the best political background for a Canton politician to be running countywide as a Democrat.  Even the Canton popular  politician Tom Bernabei (a former Canton councilman and long-term law director) would have lost his 2010 contest for county commissioner against James Walters had a conservative independent candidate not been in the race.
• Who wins?  It depends.  If Obama wins by a healthy margin in Stark, it will likely be Smuckler,  If Obama squeaks by, then it is anybody's guess.  If Romney wins Stark, the it looks like a Richard Regula victory.

• On the McDonald/Dordea race:
• Larry Dordea (Chief of Police in Hartville, a former Alliance police chief and an Alliance councilman-at-large) ran a very solid race against retiring sheriff Tim Swanson back in 2008.  Dordea's prior countywide exposure should give him an advantage.  Moreover, he enjoys a solid reputation as a first rate law enforcer among the Stark law enforcement community. Among the Dordea endorsers from the Stark County police community are:
• the Alliance Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 73, and
• Mike Grimes, retired North Canton police chief.
•  Mike McDonald has been one of Swanson's top two men as chief deputy of the Stark County Jail Division for years.  While he has never run for office before, he has been a highly visible chief deputy (with plenty of press over the years) and is well liked and well respected within the Stark County policing community.  Among McDonald's endorsements are from the police community are:
• the Canton Police Patrolmen's Association
• the Fraternal Order of Police McKinley Lodge #2, and, of course,
• Sheriff Tim Swanson.
• One of the questions about McDonald is whether or not his ties to Swanson (who has generated some political controversy in being a strong supporter of former Stark County treasurer Gary Zeigler and in supporting the 2008 commissioner decision [Bosley, Harmon and Vignos] to "impose" a 0.5% sales tax) will rub off on him in a "guilt by association" fashion.
• Another concern has been his health.  Some months ago McDonald let it be known that he was suffering from esophageal cancer.  But he has told the SCPR that treatment has been successful and he is fit to run.
• Who wins?  The SCPR believes that Dordea is the odds-on-favorite win but that a big Obama win in Stark County could allow McDonald to eke out a narrow victory.

•  On the Renacci/Sutton race:
• The Renacci/Sutton face-off (two incumbent members of Congress running against each other because of redistricting) is likely to be a nail-biter.
• A poll done months ago showed Sutton ahead by the very slightest of margins.  
• As the SCPR sees this race, Sutton likely ousts Renacci if the Obama numbers hold up at half the plurality of the CNN numbers or the ten point statewide Ohio poll favoring Obama published yesterday by Quinnipiac/CBS News/NY Times.
• For Renacci to win, Romney is going to have to make a miraculous recovery in the dimensions of making the presidential race a dead heat by November 6th.

• On the Healy-Abrams/Gibbs race:
• In the Healy-Abrams/Gibbs match up, The Report believes that Healy-Abrams is within hailing difference and could be posed to pull off an upset.
• The Report is told that Obama lost the district that now composes the area covered by the 7th congressional district 52% to 48% to John McCain in 2008 whereas Sherrod Brown (D - incumbent U.S. Senator ran at 56% in 2006),
• Being a political neophyte, Healy-Abrams certainly will not poll higher than President Obama.  So if there is a case for a down-ticket-effect to drag a candidate to victory, this contest is one where strong Obama numbers will be needed for Healy-Abrams to pull the upset.
• A marginal victory in Stark and other parts of the district is not likely to be enough to produce a Healy-Abrams victory.

Other Stark County races are likely to be unaffected in terms of outcome no matter what happens at the presidential level.

The Report expects Democrats Ferrero (prosecutor), Murthy (coroner), Campbell (recorder) and Reinbold (clerk of courts) to win with comfortable margins even if Romney were to take Stark County.  Moreover, Republican Alex Zumbar wins retention as the Stark County treasurer even in the face of an Obama Stark County landslide victory, should such a turn out to be the case.

Also,  in the Stark County-based Ohio House District races, Democrat Stephen Slesnick (the 49th), Republicans Kirk Schuring and Christina Hagan should win in a walk and whom between Obama and Romney piles up Stark County presidential votes will not affect the outcome of the final result.

(VIDEOS) DOES JOYCE HEALY-ABRAMS HAVE THE POLITICAL DYNAMISM TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF POLITICALLY OPPORTUNE ISSUE?

One thing is clear to the SCPR:  they may be sister and brother, but from a political sophistication perspective Joyce Healy-Abrams (Democratic candidate for Congress, the7th congressional district:  website LINK) is no William J. Healy, II (mayor of Canton, in his second term).

The Report has written in previous blogs that brother-Healy may be the most urbane, skilled and enduring politicians around these parts.  And like him or not, he does have a strong political personality.  A quality that sister-Healy seems to be lacking.
 
But she is new to politics having become active about one and one half years ago.  Perhaps in time she will be his equal.  Just not now.

For now, the way yours truly thinks she might win in November is for the Republican stance on the Medicare issue itself, as formulated by the GOP VP candidate Paul Ryan (i.e. the prospect that the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office prediction that his voucher idea might possibly cost Medicare recipients $6,400 on average in extra health insurance premium cost annually), to overwhelm Healy-Abrams Republican opponent Congressman Bob Gibbs just because Republicans in tight races get tainted with the Ryan brush.

For there is little about the apparent political personality and dynamism of challenger Healy-Abrams that is likely to appeal to 7th congressional district voters.   Her appeal will have to be on the substance of her position on the Medicare issue and any other issue(s) that might catch fire with the voting public.

Yesterday morning, Healy-Abrams held an event at Canton's Mayfield Senior Center designed "to educate" the public about the dangers of the Ryan version of his plan to cut the federal budget deficit over 10 years on the backs of Medicare recipients.

A firebrand politician she was not.  The Report can only imagine what brother William would have done with the Medicare topic.

Joyce seems to approach campaigning a some sort of academic exercise.  She brought in a Washington, DC Social Security and Medicare policy wonk as a featured presenter yesterday.  Phillip Rotondi of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare (LINK)was a center of attention yesterday pretty much the equal of the candidate herself.

Hmm?

Her approach at the Mayfield Senior Center was certainly different from that of opponent Bob Gibbs as he addressed a crowd of about 2,000 at Paul Ryan's rally at Walsh University.



The Medicare issue may be Healy-Abrams ticket to the United States House chambers.

As the matter stands now, it appears to the SCPR that the issue will have to carry her to victory rather than her making the case for herself in terms of demonstrated political passion and drive.

DOES CANTON'S MAYOR HEALY HAVE A LONG RANGE PLAN TO GET STARK COUNTY BACK IN PLAY FOR A CONGRESSIONAL SEAT?

The significance of Canton Mayor William J. Healy's sister filing for the Democratic Primary (March 6, 2012) for the new 7th congressional district should not be lost on Stark County political operatives and for that matter sitting Republican Congressman Bob Gibbs.

On the Democratic side of the Stark County political isle,  the Stark County Political Report's master politician is not: Chairman Randy Gonzalez, former chairman Johnnie A. Maier, Jr., and certainly not the politically servile political director Shane Jackson.

Rather The Report's assessment is that Canton Mayor William J. Healy, II is in the process of consolidating his power among activist Democrats and even now has surpassed Gonzalez, Maier, and his political acolyte Jackson, individually or in combination, as being the dominate Democratic player in Stark.

It is obvious to the SCPR that Healy has much higher political ambition than being mayor of Canton and is in the process of putting together a plan of developing a political infrastructure to enable him to springboard to higher office.

While Gonzalez has dropped the ball in securing a viable candidate to oppose Republican Congressman Bob Gibbs of rural Holmes County (Lakeville), Healy appears to have been out shopping for a Stark County name to plant in the minds of the voters of the newly created 7th congressional district.  The 7th came into being due to the loss of two Ohio congressional seats on the basis of Ohio having lost population in the 2020 census.

In the move from the 18th (the old district from which he was originally elected) to the 7th, Gibbs (with only one two year term as congressman) is forced run a largely reconfigured district in which he is not known in a significant part of the district.  An another interesting note is that before his election in 2010 over the incumbent Democratic Congressman Zack Space the 18th (being the totally rural district it was) elected a Democrat (that, of course, being Space).

One would think that these circumstances, and 2012 being a presidential year in which Democrats vote in greater numbers, would have prompted Gonzalez to look for a Democrat that can appeal to the general Stark County desire to have their congressman be from Stark (or at least from nearby [e.g. Renacci - the 16th district - Wadsworth]) and parlay that sentiment in to a strong Stark County vote for a Stark County based candidate.

But he didn't and thereby has opened up an opportunity for Healy to take advantage.

The opportune time for Healy himself to have run for Congress against Gibbs would be 2012.  But having just been re-elected mayor of Canton, it would not set well for him (even for Stark Countians who would like to see a Stark Countian as congressman) to do so.

However, 2014 will be a different matter.

Healy will just have one more year left on his second term as mayor of Canton.  Barring some major negative happening (which Healy is fully capable of), he undoubtedly can remain mayor for a very long term.

But anyone who knows Healy should understand that Healy has already fried that fish (vindicated his father's loss in the mayor's race of 1991) and 2014 would be a good time to move on to fry other fish.

Since it is not a politically pragmatic thing for Healy himself to have run this year, the next best thing is to have Joyce Healy-Abrams on the ballot.

Because of the family connection, the composition of the Healy-Abrams campaign in terms of the intensity of the effort and the amount of money raised and from whom  (i.e. from Mayor Healy's documented supporters?) should tell a lot as to how much the mayor is invested in the campaign.

One wouldn't expect Healy-Abrams to be in a position to pull off a political upset.  But if she does, yours truly can see her handing it off to brother Bill when he decides it is time to move on from being mayor of Canton.