OELSLAGER "TRASHES" (AKA "FILE 13") CANTON'S PLEA FOR FINANCIAL HELP."

AND

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION SET TO DEFUND NEARLY $3 MILLION IN COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT MONEY FOR CANTON?

VIDEOS

(ENCORE)

Council President Schulman

on

Draconian State Local Gov't Funding Cuts

----------

Prospect of Federal Gov't Cuts

of

Community Development Monies

for

2018

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Council President Schulman

Councilman Bill Smuckler

Call to Action

More than four years ago (April, 2013) Canton City Council president Allen Schulman pled with then-Stark County-based members of the Ohio General Assembly (Oelslager, Schuring, Hagan [all Republicans] and Democrat Slesnick) to do something to help Canton avert a fiscal crisis.



By April, 2013, draconian State of Ohio local government funding cuts were in full swing as imposed on local governments across Ohio, including, of course, Stark County, by Republican governor John Kasich working in concert with the supermajority Republican controlled Ohio General Assembly.

At last night's Canton City Council meeting, The Stark County Political Report learned of two new developments that will aggravate Canton's and likely other Ohio municipalities' financial stress.

First:

On June 26 of this year, Canton treasurer Kim Perez wrote Stark County's Scott Oelslager who represents virtually all of Stark County in the Ohio General Assembly asking him from his perch as chair of the powerful Senate Finance Committee to remove "detrimental to city finances" language from the-then pending approval biennial Ohio Budget (HB 49).

Here is a Ohio Municipal League (OML) detailed explanation of the reasons why centralized collection is not a good idea in that its inclusion in HB 49 will cause a further deterioration in city finances across Ohio and erode city's constitutionally provided for Home Rule.



Back in 2013, when Shulman meet with "a small group of legislators," Scott Oelslager was not among them.

He sent word back that he was "too busy."

Apparently, he is still "too busy."  For it appears that he trash-canned Perez's and totally disrespected Canton government in not making any responses whatsoever to Perez's letter.

According to Chief Deputy Treasurer Mike McEnaney (last night), Oelslager has not responded to the Perez plea.

One would think that out of respect for a Stark County local government elected official, Oelslager would have responded with an "I disagree with you and the Ohio Municipal League"  and "here are my reasons why."

To the SCPR, such a show of disrespect and unaccountability is sufficient reason why nary a single Cantonian or voter of any other of Stark County's local government cities and villages affected by the centralized collection legislation would vote for Oelslager should he decide to play yet another version of musical chairs in which he and fellow Republican Kirk Schuring switch seats (from the Senate to the House and vice versa) every eight years in an "in your face" to Ohio's term limits for state legislators.

Oelslager is a "years and years ago" former aide to former, recently deceased (July, 19th), Congressman Ralph Regula.

The word on the street is that Oelslager became persona non grata on the Regula staff because he became too pushy in urging Regula to retire so that he could be in a position to succeed him.

Though he seemingly has a constant "politician's smile," Oelslager appears to be in reality an arrogant guy.

No matter that Oelslager undoubtedly does some good for Stark County, voters should be highly wary of a "I'm too busy" to deal with you type of politician that "comfortable in Columbus, but not in my district" seems to increasingly apply to.

Second:

The above graphic is a copy of a caption of legislation passed by Canton City Council last night.

And here is a SCPR videotaped of last night's discussion 

• featuring:
• Mayor Bernabei, 
• Deputy Mayor Williams, 
• Ward 4 Councilwoman Chris Smith [Community & Economic Development chair],
• Councilman John Mariol [Finance Committee chair], 
• Council president Allen Schulman, and
• Councilman at Large Bill Smuckler) 

between the administration and council members about the prospect that this funding stream for community development is expected to be coming to an end next fiscal year (January 1, 2018—December 31, 2018).



Here is what the National Community Development Association have to say about the impending cuts:

FY18

We're hearing the President's FY18 final budget will be released on May 18. OMB Director Mick Mulvaney recently stated that the final budget will include $200 billion for new infrastructure spending. While NCDA has advocated for a portion of any large scale infrastructure package to be funneled through CDBG, we have argued that it can not come at the expense of the regular appropriated funds for CDBG. Trump has zeroed out CDBG in his FY18 budget. A one-time investment in infrastructure can not come at the expense of ongoing CDBG program funding. NCDA and the CDBG Coalition will continue to push for $3.3 billion for CDBG (and $1.2 billion for HOME) in the FY18 HUD spending bill and we urge our members to continue to do the same.

Thanks for all of your outreach to your Congressional Members.

Call Congress on April 26

Join the Campaign for Housing and Community Development Funding (CHCDF), of which NCDA is a member, on April 26 for a national call-in day to Congress, urging quick passage of the FY17 spending bills and full funding of HUD's programs, including $3.0 for CDBG and $950 million for HOME.

Call the Congressional switchboard toll free at 202-224-3121.

Thanks,
Vicki

Deputy Mayor Fonda added this in an e-mail response to SCPR follow up questions:

Mr. Olson,

The federal funds that may be cut are CDBG funds, HOME funds, and ESG funds


Programs that could be affected are; Housing rehab,public and social support, summer youth activities,demolition, furnace program, clothing assistance for youth, etc.

Next up is a "call for action" in contacting the likes of Gibbs, Brown and Portman to stop any idea of cutting Canton's community and economic development funds.



So it is not only the state government that has and continues to deliver financial blows to Canton and indeed all of Ohio's urban areas, but, now, it appears, that the federal government is set to follow suit.

As with Oelslager from the State of Ohio perspective, one has to ask whether or not 7th District (which includes Canton) congressman Bob Gibbs (Republican) and Senators Sherrod Brown (Democrat) and Rob Portman (Republican) are going to allow the defunding to actually occur?

As in Ohio, Republicans control the legislative and executive branches of government.

Is Canton and Stark County other urban areas in for a new level of government defunding?

Is there a Republican war on America's and Ohio's cities underway?

THE CRUEL & SHAMEFUL CONGRESSMAN JIM RENACCI. CONNING THE VOTERS?

Between 7th Congressional District congressman Bob Gibbs (Republican - Holmes County) and the 16th's Jim Renacci, they represent about 90% or better of Stark County.

Gibbs is a make "no bones about it" right-wing Republican (if not and out-and-out Tea Party type) who thinks he is safe for reelection (due to gerrymandered redistricting) and therefore is not interested in representing the many thousands (many of whom are citizens of Stark County) who are:

• traditional conservative Republicans, 
• one of the few remaining conservative Democrats,
• middle of the road Republicans and Democrats, or
• that real rare bird in a county like Stark - a left wing, liberal Democrat.

Renacci, on the other hand, has feigned being a more centrist Republican who "says" he wants to reach out to Democrats in Congress to get the country back on track on a bipartisan basis in order to overcome the lingering and stagnating effects of the 2008 Great Recession on the American, Ohio and local economies.

Leading up to his reelection bid in 2012 (in the "new" 16th which includes north-northwest Stark County), having defeated Democrat John Boccieri (then of Alliance in the "old" 16th which included all of  Stark County); Renacci made much ado about his having formed what he call "the breakfast club" which he ballyhooed  (per editorial writer Steve Hoffman of the Akron Beacon Journal) as being a group of:

... 10 Republicans and 10 Democrats, the group operates outside the glare of television lights, tackling ... tough issues such as weak economic growth and the debt, or, as the congressman puts it, “the real problems that Americans care about.”

Recent reports indicate that Ohio, notwithstanding Governor Kasich's largely "out-of-the-public-view" JobsOhio trumpeted cure for what ails Ohio's economy, is now in a "job-losing" mode.

Recently, it was revealed that Ohio lost 8,200 jobs in August apparently with a large share of them coming in the northeast Ohio corridor which includes the Stark County area.

Moreover, Ohio unemployment has hoovered at 7.3% for some time now.

From examiner.com, this report:

Appearing on NBC's Meet the Press Sunday [October 27th] with Democratic Kentucky Gov. Beshear, Kasich admitted the Ohio "economy is stalled," ... .

So one must ask Congressman Renacci whether or not the loss of jobs in Ohio and concomitantly in Stark County is "one of the real problems that [Ohioans/Stark Countians/16 District constituents] care about."

Of course we all know that rhetorician/politician Jim Renacci would say:  "absolutely! it is."

But his actions belie his words.

He and his fellow Gibbs (insofar as Stark County representation in Congress is concerned) voted lock-stock-and barrel with the 144 "continue the shut-down-the-government Republicans" in Congress.

From Gibbs, the vote was expected.

But Renacci's vote should have been different in the light of his highly publicized "reaching out,' no?

"The breakfast club" founded by Renacci, as he approached the 2012 election in which he was facing a center-left Democrat (Betty Sutton) from Summit County, apparently motivated in wanting to appear that he understood that even the "new" 16th is composed of  many, many more voters who are not right wing Republicans than who are.

But now that the election has come and gone, he seems to think that his future political threat (had he not voted with the 144) was more from the political right than the political center, left of center and so "the breakfast club" thing has lost it political utility and appeal.

Hence, shouldn't we now think of Renacci as being a political huckster, or, to put it in very "Stark" terms (no pun intended) as a shameful and cruel political con artist?

The consequence?

Renacci with his 144 alignment certainly has lost all credibility with the "let's talk" supposedly bipartisan group of 20, no?

The voters of the 16th should also now view Renacci as "a man of the forked tongue"

So Ohio and Stark County gets no help whatsoever from the federal government on "the real problems" [i.e. job stimulation] that [Ohioans and Stark Countians] do indeed care about.

With his "the breakfast club" thing, hasn't Congressman Renacci perpetuated a cruel political hoax that amounts to nothing less than a shameful political con job?

"'LEGISLATOR 'STRICT' POLITICAL PARTY ALLEGIANCE" HURTS STARK COUNTY CONSTITUENTS & COMMUNITIES, THE STATE AND THE NATION

The Republican and Democratic causes in the Ohio General have a rule.

And the rule holds that if 80% of the caucus members vote to support a particular piece of legislation, then the remaining 20% forego their opposition and vote for the proposed bill.

Sometimes a member gets excused from the rule because he/she has a compelling personal political reason (i.e. that folks back home are watching and the caucus vote will not play in the district) to depart from a party-line vote.

Yours truly is in the process of reading an in-depth book on each of our 44 U.S. presidents.

And in reading about John Quincy Adams (John Quincy Adams, American Statesmen Series, John Torrey Morse) for the time he served a Massachusetts district in the U.S. House of Representatives for upwards of 17 years (1831 - 1848) after he lost his reelection bid for the presidency (1828), it is striking how independent he was of political party influence both in his time as president and in the Congress.

John Quincy Adams can be said to have put the interest of the country and his district ahead of his political preferences.

He was very much in the tradition of George Washington, our first president, who viewed political parties as unhelpful at best and damaging at worst.

A Washington quote:

[Political parties] may now and then answer popular ends, they are likely in the course of time and things, to become potent engines, by which cunning, ambitious, and unprincipled men will be enabled to subvert the power of the people and to usurp for themselves the reins of government, destroying afterwards the very engines which have lifted them to unjust dominion.

Morse on John Quincy Adams as a member of Congress:

Mr. Adams took his seat in the House as a member of the twenty-second Congress in December, 1831. He had been elected by the National Republican, afterward better known as the Whig party, but one of his first acts was to declare that he would be bound by no partisan connection, but would in every matter act independently. 

Morse, John Torrey (2011-03-30). John Quincy Adams American Statesmen Series (p. 155).  . Kindle Edition.  

And Morse's book is replete with example after example after example of Adams voting what he thought was best for the country even though his vote and leadership on attaining a particular vote benefited his political opponents.

But Washington (a founding father) and Adams were men of the 1700/1800s.

We are now in 2013 and at the national level the nation is in what is termed as being in political gridlock.  So much so that it may be that in September the Republicans may vote to shut down the U.S. government in order to try to kill Obamacare.

Should such an eventuality materialize, you can bet your bottom dollar on the certainty that Stark's congressmen (Gibbs, R - the 7th; Renacci - R - the 16th and Tim Ryan - D - the 13th) will largely vote (90% or better) the party line.

And the same pattern (probably between the 95% to 100% range) has been demonstrated by Stark County delegation to the Ohio General Assembly, to wit:

• Scott Oelslager, Republican (Plain), the 29th Senate District,
• Kirk Schuring, Republican (Jackson), the 48th House District,
• Christina Hagan, Republican (Marlboro), the 50th House District, and
• Stephen Slesnick, Democrat (Canto), the 49th House District

When Republican Jim Renacci ran against then incumbent Democratic Congressman John Boccieri in 2010, one of his main negative points on Boccieri is that he nearly always voted with the Democrats and then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

But catch this from a 2011 SCPR blog:

And he was pretty much on the mark.  Stats show that Boccieri voted with Pelosi about 94% of the time. 

But what has Renacci turned around and done as Boccieri's successor? 

You've got it! 

He is pretty much in lockstep, too.  He is on record as voting with Republican Speaker of the House John Boehner 92% of the time.

Notwithstanding the ballyhoo that Congressman Renacci made in his successful re-election drive against Democrat Betty Sutton (November, 2012) about his involvement in a bipartisan Congressional policy group, the SCPR sees very little if any separation between him and the Republican House Caucus.

Unless, of course, one considers the following U.S. Senator Rob Portman generated press release to be an example of " on policy issues" bi-partisanship:

Press Releases 

Home / Newsroom / Press Release 

June 11, 2013 

Portman, Brown, Manchin, Renacci and Gibbs Renew Push for Pro Football Hall of Fame Commemorative Coin Act 

Washington, D.C. – Today, U.S. Senators Rob Portman (R-OH) and Joe Manchin (D-WV) and U.S. Congressman Jim Renacci (R-OH-16) joined members of the Pro Football Hall of Fame to renew their push for the Pro Football Hall of Fame Commemorative Coin Act in advance of the Hall’s 50th anniversary in September.

Although local Pro Football Hall of Fame afficionados are undoubtedly appreciative of the effort, the SCPR believes that most Stark Coutinans will not think that this joint legislative venture is indication that Washington partisan political gridlock will be ending anytime soon.

So to the question posed by the graphic that leads this blog, to wit:  In 2013 does Stark County have anyone at the state or national level of legislating that in any way, shape or form approximates John Quincy Adams?

STATE AND FEDERAL LEGISLATORS ABANDON LOCAL GOV'T FUNDING. IGNORE (EXCEPT FOR OELSLAGER) CANTON COUNCIL'S REQUEST FOR THEM TO PRESENT THEMSELVES & EXPLAIN WHY!

At the February 11th meeting of Canton City Council (SCPR blog LINK), President Allen Schulman got all over Stark County's federal and state legislators for allowing local government funding to plunge to levels that threaten the ability of Stark County's local governments to provide basic services.

On the 19th, he followed up with a letter, to wit:

Guess how many responses he has gotten so far?

Answer:  One!

That was a telephone call from state Senator Scott Oelslager's office (Republican [Plain] - the 29th which covers most of Stark County) saying:  "No, I am not coming to Canton City Council!"

No reason given.

And Oelslager is chairman of the Ohio Senate finance committee.  He just might be a guy who can do something about the plunge in state funding of local government.

But of course because he puts his political party's interest (more specifically Governor Kasich's balancing the state budget on the backs of local governments) over his constituents' local interests, he is going to be "a no show."

Hmm?

The rest of the Ohio General Assembly Stark County delegation:

From Christina Hagan (Republican - the 50th - Marlboro), Kirk Schuring (Republican - the 48th - Jackson) and Stephen Slesnick (Democrat - the 49th - Canton) NOT A WORD!

Well, how about Stark three congressional representatives:  Bob Gibbs (Republican - the 7th - Holmes County), (Jim Renacci - the 16th - Wadsworth [Summit County]) and Tim Ryan - the 13th - Youngstown [Mahoning County])?

And add U.S. Senators Rob Portman (Republican) and Sherrod Brown (Democrat).

These are the folks who are about to take the federal government into dramatic budget cuts (sequestration) and thereby cause financial hardship for local communities such as Canton.

Again, NOT A WORD!

What arrogant, unaccountable people, no?

At election time they are swarming all over us.  But when they are asked to do their job for local constituents, they are nowhere to be seen!

Just let some local government (let's say a school board) gin up an honor to bestow on one of them.

Oh, that's different.

He/she would be at the meeting dressed to the nine's and with photographers in tow.

And most likely, the locals would be licking their boots with nary a question about his legislative matter or that legislative matter that the legislator hasn't delivered on.

One doesn't like to be knee-jerk, but why would anybody vote for an incumbent legislator who will not come to the halls of local government to answer the constituents tough questions?

When are Stark County's political/governmental leaders going to unite and come out full force and say to the people of Stark County:  "do not vote for these people!"

• Christina Hagan,
• Scott Oelslager,
• Kirk Schuring,
• Stephen Slesnick,
• Bob Gibbs,
• Jim Renacci,
• Tim Ryan,
• Rob Portman, and
• Sherrod Brown

"They disrespect us to the point that will not come hear our grievances."

The SCPR's attitude has always been that to the degree local government officials play nice with these folks, is the degree to which they get kicked in the teeth.

Schulman is showing some promise. He has chided Chris Borello and her Concerned Citizens of Stark County for besieging council with their anti-fracking concerns to go after Hagan, Oelslager, Schuring and Slesnick (who all support or supported taking local control of fracking away from local governments) at the right time - election time.

You can be sure that anyone of these legislators if they think they are going to be ex-Senator Oelslager or ex-Representative Stephen Slesnick over a given issue, are going to get attentive yesterday.

It is up to the likes of Schulman to bring people together at critical election times in order to get results.

What is good for Chris Borello and her followers is good for Schulman and all Stark County local government leaders.

Only yesterday, Policy Matters Ohio put out a graph that shows the devastation that the Ohio General Assembly has wrought on local government. 

A second graph shows that new revenues fall substantially short of projected losses.

And it not just Canton that is under the financial gun.

So are Stark's other cities and villages.

And townships.

The question that the SCPR has is whether or not Stark's cities, villages and townships will continue to allow the likes of Hagan, Oelslager, Schurng and Slesnick to thumb their noses at them.

If they do, then they get everything they deserve!

UPDATE: (11/06/2012-3:32 PM) HAS NATE SILVER OF THE 538 BLOG GOTTEN IT RIGHT? OBAMA HAS 90.9% CHANCE OF BEING REELECTED. ALSO, A 91% CHANCE TO WIN OHIO. WILL HE WIN STARK AND HELP McDONALD (SHERIFF) & SMUCKLER (COMMISSIONER) WITH THE "COATTAILS EFFECT?"

Better than predicting today's election result is to deal with "probabilities" a la Nate Silver (LINK) of the 538 political blog located on the NY Times website.

The SCPR only pays attention to two organizations that deal with polling of elections.

The second in line is Charlie Cook's "Cook's Political Report.  But first in line is Nate Silver's 538 political blog.

In the 2008 presidential election, Silver corrected called the probabilities for Obama in 49 of 50 states.

This year he is at 90.9% in terms of "probability" that President Obama will be reelected.

 

Almost matched by his "forecast" (note:  not a prediction) at the national level is his "probability" (91.8%:  up from the 87% forecast just yesterday) that Obama wins Ohio.

And he has Democrat Sherrod Brown "probably" defeating Republican Josh Mandel.  And a high "probability" indeed:  96%.

As reported by the SCPR on Friday, the Healy-Abrams (Democrat)/Gibbs (Republican incumbent) race is thought to be safe for Gibbs.

However, the Renacci (Republican incumbent -16th) and Sutton (Democrat incumbent - 13th) race, who are squaring off against one another in the "new 16th" congressional district because of decennial constitutionally required redistricting because Ohio's loss of population results in Ohio losing two congressional seats, is truly "too close to call, meaning that the probabilities are 50/50 across the district.

The SCPR does believe that Renacci will win in Stark.

Why?

Because he and Betty Sutton only has Jackson Township, Lawrence Township (Canal Fulton) and part of Lake Township to deal with.  All of these parts of Stark County are known to be Republican indexed and therefore The Report believes he will best Sutton in the Stark County part of the district.

And he likely wins in Wayne County and the parts of Medina County in the 16th.

But it may be a different story over the rest of the district, especially in the northern and northwest parts of the newly configured district.

If Obama has polls well in the 16th overall, then he might well pull Sutton through.

When Statehouse Republicans (including Marlboro's Christina Hagan [the 50th House District] and Plain's Scott Oelslager [the 29th Senate District]) did their gerrymandering redistricting (but not Kirk Schuring who is running in the "new" 48th), they helped carve Stark up into three congressional districts:  the 7th (Bob Gibbs/Joyce Healy-Abrams}, the 13th (Tim Ryan/Marisha Agana) and, of course, the 16th (Jim Renacci/Betty Sutton).

Christina Hagan, in particular, said the slicing and dicing of Stark County was a good thing when it happened.

In her warped and highly partisan way of thinking.  Former 16th District congressman Ralph Regula takes great exception to her as did Schuring.

Ryan will win easily in the 13th over Agana.

But how about local to Stark County contested races?

The SCPR sees that there are only two contests that could go either way.

The commissioners face off between former Stark County commissioner and Republican Richard Regula and former Canton councilman and Democrat Bill Smuckler is one such race.

The other is the sheriff's match up of Republican Larry Dordea and Chief Deputy Sheriff Mike McDonald (a Democrat).

Who is likely to win in these two races?

In the opinion of the SCPR, it depends on whether or not President Obama wins Stark County, and, if so, by how much.  A comfortable Obama win (let's say five percentage points, which The Report thinks is unlikely) would likely mean Smuckler and McDonald wins in a high degree of Silver's "probability."

Any thing less that five percent, it could mean that we will not know on election night which of the candidates for commissioner and sheriff have won.

If Romney wins in Stark, then the SCPR thinks there is a high probability that Regula and Dordea win.

There you have it folks.

Have a great election day and BE SURE TO VOTE!

STARK COUNTY TRENDING OBAMA? IF SO, HOW WILL THE TREND PLAY OUT IN STARK COUNTY RACES?

Updated:  4:30 PM

On Tuesday night yours truly was watching CNN when up popped a graphic of Ohio in a political analysis piece by John King.

What was different about this particular graphic is that it showed county detail as to how Obama was achieving an 8% point lead.  And, Stark County is being shown in the "blue" (Democratic) column.

While CNN has not revealed the actual county percentage breakdown, that Stark is shown in "blue" (indicating an Obama win) could have a impact of how Stark County races (in whole or in part [i.e. the congressional races]) could play out.

As the SCPR sees it, the Obama advantage, if it holds, bodes well for Democrats running in "close" countywide races.

The Report believes that there are two close countywide match ups:  McDonald (D) versus Dordea (R) for sheriff and Regula (R) versus Smuckler (D) for county commissioner.

Moreover, it appears that the 16th (Renacci [R] versus Sutton [D]) and 7th (Healy-Abrams [D] versus Gibbs [R]) congressional races are close.  In each of these races, only part of Stark County is in play.

• On the Regula/Smuckler race:
• Smuckler is a Canton politician  (served for years on Canton City Council and ran for mayor twice; losing both tries) who has no countywide "running for office experience" whereas Regula does.  
• Regula lost in a county treasurer race against Gary Zeigler in 2000 and again to political upstart Todd Bosley in 2006 for county commissioner.  Regula was running as an incumbent.
• The SCPR is told that Regula is a "born-again" politician who has mended his lazy campaigning style and is determined to take advantage of the Regula name (he is the son of former long-term Republican congressman Ralph Regula) and having been a commissioner in order to best Smuckler.
• Smuckler understands that it is not the best political background for a Canton politician to be running countywide as a Democrat.  Even the Canton popular  politician Tom Bernabei (a former Canton councilman and long-term law director) would have lost his 2010 contest for county commissioner against James Walters had a conservative independent candidate not been in the race.
• Who wins?  It depends.  If Obama wins by a healthy margin in Stark, it will likely be Smuckler,  If Obama squeaks by, then it is anybody's guess.  If Romney wins Stark, the it looks like a Richard Regula victory.

• On the McDonald/Dordea race:
• Larry Dordea (Chief of Police in Hartville, a former Alliance police chief and an Alliance councilman-at-large) ran a very solid race against retiring sheriff Tim Swanson back in 2008.  Dordea's prior countywide exposure should give him an advantage.  Moreover, he enjoys a solid reputation as a first rate law enforcer among the Stark law enforcement community. Among the Dordea endorsers from the Stark County police community are:
• the Alliance Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 73, and
• Mike Grimes, retired North Canton police chief.
•  Mike McDonald has been one of Swanson's top two men as chief deputy of the Stark County Jail Division for years.  While he has never run for office before, he has been a highly visible chief deputy (with plenty of press over the years) and is well liked and well respected within the Stark County policing community.  Among McDonald's endorsements are from the police community are:
• the Canton Police Patrolmen's Association
• the Fraternal Order of Police McKinley Lodge #2, and, of course,
• Sheriff Tim Swanson.
• One of the questions about McDonald is whether or not his ties to Swanson (who has generated some political controversy in being a strong supporter of former Stark County treasurer Gary Zeigler and in supporting the 2008 commissioner decision [Bosley, Harmon and Vignos] to "impose" a 0.5% sales tax) will rub off on him in a "guilt by association" fashion.
• Another concern has been his health.  Some months ago McDonald let it be known that he was suffering from esophageal cancer.  But he has told the SCPR that treatment has been successful and he is fit to run.
• Who wins?  The SCPR believes that Dordea is the odds-on-favorite win but that a big Obama win in Stark County could allow McDonald to eke out a narrow victory.

•  On the Renacci/Sutton race:
• The Renacci/Sutton face-off (two incumbent members of Congress running against each other because of redistricting) is likely to be a nail-biter.
• A poll done months ago showed Sutton ahead by the very slightest of margins.  
• As the SCPR sees this race, Sutton likely ousts Renacci if the Obama numbers hold up at half the plurality of the CNN numbers or the ten point statewide Ohio poll favoring Obama published yesterday by Quinnipiac/CBS News/NY Times.
• For Renacci to win, Romney is going to have to make a miraculous recovery in the dimensions of making the presidential race a dead heat by November 6th.

• On the Healy-Abrams/Gibbs race:
• In the Healy-Abrams/Gibbs match up, The Report believes that Healy-Abrams is within hailing difference and could be posed to pull off an upset.
• The Report is told that Obama lost the district that now composes the area covered by the 7th congressional district 52% to 48% to John McCain in 2008 whereas Sherrod Brown (D - incumbent U.S. Senator ran at 56% in 2006),
• Being a political neophyte, Healy-Abrams certainly will not poll higher than President Obama.  So if there is a case for a down-ticket-effect to drag a candidate to victory, this contest is one where strong Obama numbers will be needed for Healy-Abrams to pull the upset.
• A marginal victory in Stark and other parts of the district is not likely to be enough to produce a Healy-Abrams victory.

Other Stark County races are likely to be unaffected in terms of outcome no matter what happens at the presidential level.

The Report expects Democrats Ferrero (prosecutor), Murthy (coroner), Campbell (recorder) and Reinbold (clerk of courts) to win with comfortable margins even if Romney were to take Stark County.  Moreover, Republican Alex Zumbar wins retention as the Stark County treasurer even in the face of an Obama Stark County landslide victory, should such a turn out to be the case.

Also,  in the Stark County-based Ohio House District races, Democrat Stephen Slesnick (the 49th), Republicans Kirk Schuring and Christina Hagan should win in a walk and whom between Obama and Romney piles up Stark County presidential votes will not affect the outcome of the final result.

IT APPEARS THAT HEALY-ABRAMS WILL COME UP JUST A TAD SHORT IN 7TH CONGRESSIONAL SEAT RACE

It has been pretty amazing that Joyce Healy-Abrams has been able to put the political heat on incumbent Republican Congressman Bob Gibbs (now of the 18th but running for a seat in the newly configured 7th as a consequence of the constitutionally mandated decennial redistricting).

Ohio lost population in the 2010 census and as a result lost two congressional seats.  It could be that the loss and having to run in a reconfigured district could cost Gibbs his seat but the SCPR does not look for such to actually happen.

How so?

While Healy-Abrams came out of gate stronger than one would expect being the political novice she is (running about even in a generic poll done early on), she has not been able to move up on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's (DCCC) list of preferred candidates.

In April she moved onto the DCCC list:

 

The "Emerging List" is defined by the DCCC as being those: 

candidates and districts that are making themselves competitive by running smart campaigns which are becoming increasingly competitive.

While being on the emerging list is an accomplishment, the list she must make if she is to have a good chance of winning is what is known as the "Red to Blue List."

The "Red to Blue List" consists of the:

top Democratic campaigns across the country, and offers them financial, communications, grassroots, and strategic support. The program will introduce Democratic supporters to new, competitive candidates in order to help expand their base leading up to Election Day.

Right now that list includes 53 congressional districts across the country.  For Ohio, only Charlie Wilson (elected in the Obama/Democratic banner year of 2008).  However, he lost in the Republican tide of 2010 and is now seemingly poised to reclaim the seat in this - a more balanced - election year.

As the SCPR sees this race is that the main reason Healy-Abrams is in play is that Gibbs allowed his old district (the 18th) to be decimatedly morphed into the 7th which only includes about a third of 18th.

To The Report both Gibbs and Healy-Abrams are bland candidates in and of themselves and do very little to generate excitement among the voters.  Yours truly is told that upwards of 50% of the 7th District voters know practically nothing about either candidates.

That being the case does not bode very well for Healy-Abrams as far as the SCPR is concerned.  When the 7th was put together, the gerrymanders calculated the political party bias of each and every district and the Republican map makers ensured that the 7th would lean Republican.

This means that absent extraordinary circumstances a Republican is going to win the 7th.

From what the SCPR sees of Healy-Abrams, there is nothing special about her or her campaign effort.

Had former 16th District Congressman John Boccieri entered the race, the SCPR believes that he does have enough of a flair about him to be on the DCCC "Red to Blue List" and therefore in a position to take the 7th for Democrats.

Republicans obviously were determined to make it difficult for Boccieri to make the run.  In redistricting they placed his home in Alliance into fellow Democrat Tim Ryan's 13th congressional district.

While Boccieri could legally have run for the 7th even living out of the district, such a fact would have been a distraction from the real issues of the campaign.  Of course, he could have moved like he did (from New Middetown [Mahoning County]) to Alliance) when he ran against Kirk Schuring in 2008.  However, he appears to be a solid family man who would not put his family (which includes a number of small children) through another such disruption in their lives.

So the 7th congressional district race is what it is and two pretty vapid candidates are in "a limp to the end."

Gibbs is so non-descript that it would not be a shock if Healy-Abrams were to win.

If she does, it will be a sign that Democrats are doing exceptionally well across the county. 

However, political pundits across the country are not expecting a Democratic groundswell, unlike in the 2010 races where some did insofar as Republican prospects were concerned.  Some predicted thewholesale change that resulted in the Republicans taking over the United States House of Representatives.  In 2012, most are predicting single-digit Democratic gains.

So the most that probably can be said about the prospect of a Healy-Abrams win in November is:

"Close, but no cigar!"

WHICH STARK COUNTY CONGRESSPERSON IS SPENDING LESS/MORE ON HIS/HER STAFF? RENACCI STAFFER HAS GOTTEN 188% IN INCREASES SINCE STARTING WITH REGULA IN 2001.

UPDATED AND REPUBLISHED 04/06/2012

LINK to underlying USA Today article.

ORIGINAL BLOG

According to state Rep. Christina Hagan (Republican - Marlboro) and Stark GOP Chair Jeff Matthews it is a good thing, due to the decentennially required by the U.S. Constitution redistricting and the Ohio Republican Party gerrymandering the districts to the GOP's advantage, that Stark County is split up into three districts.

Accordingly, the SCPR tracks the spending habits not just on the 16th Congressional District (currently held by Jim Renacci - R/Wadsworth) which used to encompass all of Stark County but also Congressmen Bob Gibbs (currently R -18th; to be the 6th) and Tim Ryan (currently D -17th; to be the 13th).

Because Ohio loses two congressional seats due to population loss, Congressman Renacci has to battle current Democratic 13th District Congresswoman Betty Sutton for the right to remain in Congress.

So as asked in the title to this blog, who is the most frugal congress person vying for office in the 2012 congressional election for Stark County?

The winner is:  16th District Congressman Jim Renacci.

As can be seen from extracts from LegiStorm, he bests his November opponent by over $150,000.

And as can be seen by the graphics on Congressmen Gibbs and Ryan below, he best Gibbs by about $25,000 and Ryan by some $357,000.

Congratulations Congressman Renacci.

However, readers of The Report are reminded that this measure of frugality with taxpayer money is a relative phenomenon.

Note, that if Renacci had stayed at his 01/01/2011 - 03/31/2011 pay standard he could have saved taxpayers an additional $100,000.

But he chose to grant staff raises totaling 4.5%, 15.6% and 9.5% in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters and thereby blemished his record of frugality.

Does anyone think that his car dealership is handing out 29.6% per annum in raises?

He still does better that the others who are likely to represent Stark County (except, maybe Sutton) come January 1, 2013, but the key point for everyday Stark Countians is that nearly 30% in staff raises is not happening at their places of employment.

By this standard, even Renacci looks he like does not have much of problem spending "other people's money."

Think he might "hold the line" next year, if elected?

Another note that the SCPR cannot pass up.

One of Renacci's staffers is Stark GOP Chairman and Stark Board of Elections Director Jeff Matthews' wife Heidi.

Heidi started out as staff assistant to now retired Congressman Ralph Regula in 2000.

In her first full year (2011) she earned $27,833.34.

By 2009, she was earning just a few dollars shy of $100,000.

Well, Congressman Regula retired.

But with Renacci's defeat of Democrat John Boccieri in November, 2010, she was back on the job with the Republican Renacci.

The Report is told that husband Jeff (remember, Stark County GOP chair) took the initiative with other 16th District GOP chairmen (losing only the Ashland County chairman -  the home of Renacci Republican primary opponent Matt Miller) to enhance Renacci's chance of getting the GOP nomination.

Again, credit is due Renacci.

He did not bring Matthews in at $100,000.

He cut her and cut her good to a mere $80,208.33.  About a 20% cut from her last Regula year.

And he even cut her rather large quarterly raises enjoyed under Congressman Regula.

Ms. Matthews only got about 20% in raises from January 1, 2011 through December 31, 2011.

Compared to the Regula years, quite a come down.

Not counting her year at $100,000 under Regula, Matthews has received as measured her current Renacci salary 188% over a ten year period.

18.8% per year over ten years!

Interesting, no?

For comparision purposes, here are the salaries meted out by Congressmen Gibbs and Ryan for 2011.

Your tax dollars at work!