Saturday, September 18, 2010


Who is likely to win between Congressman John Boccieri and his Republican challenger Jim Renacci?

The SCPR believes that the race is too close to call with Renacci up by a little bit in the polls.

Readers of the SCPR will recall that The Report correctly called the Boccieri/Schuring contest of 2008 with the prediction that Boccieri would win about 10 percentage points.

While no one can call this race with any degree of certainty, it is clear that whomever wins from among Renacci and Boccieri will be the one of the two who can convince 16th District voters that he offers the best promise for producing jobs.

Charlie Cook, a highly regarded national pollster by Democrats and Republicans alike (author "The Cook Political Report"), has identified the jobs issues as the definer of the victor in the close congressional races spread across America this fall (reference:  Hardball, week of September 13, 2010).

But Cook's focus on jobs is nothing new for him.  In a piece on his website date October 10, 2009 (Putting Jobs First), Cook cites as follows:
a fascinating September 21-23 national survey conducted by Democratic pollster Geoff Garin of Hart Research Associates for the Economic Policy Institute. A whopping 81 percent of the 802 registered voters interviewed said that the Obama administration needs to do more about unemployment and disappearing jobs.
The SCPR buys Cook's argument and Garin's research and can now say that whomever wins in the 16th as among Boccieri and Renacci will depend on the "job productiveness potential" voter perception of each.

Notice that The Report does not say whom has the "objective" best job producing plan.

It will be impossible for voters to make such an assessment with all the political spin that both sides are spewing out these days.  But voters will be able to determine who is the more convincing of the two.

Indeed, a la James Carville (Clinton strategist 1992), "it is the economy, stupid!"  -  "de ja vu , all over again" (Yogi Berra).

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