Tuesday, July 15, 2008
DISCUSSION: WHEN A CAMPAIGN PUTS OUT "INTERNAL POLLING" NUMBERS, WHAT DOES THIS SUGGEST?
A internal poll leak by the Schuring campaign. Is this a sign of Schuring campaign desperation?
The STARK COUNTY POLITICAL REPORT (The Report) recalls Hillary Clinton citing an internal poll suggesting she was running neck-and-neck with Obama in the North Carolina Democratic primary. But the real poll, the election itself, showed the internal poll to be a highly flawed poll.
It is a truism in politics that an organization never leaks an internal poll except, perhaps, as a desperation measure when the campaign is going poorly, or - in the very last days of a campaign - to show that the leaker campaign is sure to win and voters should get on the bandwagon.
Since this is July 15th, (nearly four months until the election) the Schuring leak must be out of desperation. Schuring has been running a stealth campaign so far and media types are beginning to talk about this race being Boccieri's to lose.
Last week we had the Schuring people get the aid of a 527 organization with Schuring deploring the "unwanted" assistance (if you can believe him) in the light of the 527 being wrong on which candidate voted which way. Schuring voted to increase Ohio gasoline tax, Boccieri voted no. But the 527 errantly accused Boccieri. We have a name for this tactic these days - it's called "swiftboating."
You would think that seasoned politicians would be embarrassed to put out a poll showing 26% undecided. But when you are desperate, you probably pull out all the stops.
Again, The Report asks, why doesn't Schuring just be Schuring. He might actually have a real chance to pull this one out if he chucked all the RNCC folks and ran as he has always run in Stark County. And Stark County will be the election will be won or lost.
For now The Report is sticking with its 52% - 48% ranging up to 55% - 45% Boccieri over Schuring prediction and the spread could go even higher if Schuring keeps following the RNCC advice.
Question: Is it a sign of desperation for 16 District Congressional candidate Kirk Schuring to be putting faith in an internal poll showing 26% of the voters have not yet decided on which candidate they will vote for?
Posted by Martin Olson at 1:59 PM