Wednesday, October 8, 2008

DISCUSSION: IS THE 16TH CONGRESSIONAL RACE OVER? BOCCIERI TELLS THE STARK COUNTY POLITICAL REPORT THAT HE'S UP BY 10


Last night 16th District congressional candidate John Boccieri of Alliance was upbeat in his appearance before the Canton Arts Council at Kent Stark.

In a conversation that the STARK COUNTY POLITICAL REPORT (The Report) had with candidate Boccieri at the conclusion of Candidate Art Forum, he told The Report that he had just gotten "new" independent polling results showing him up by 10%.

Readers will recall that The Report predicted early in the campaign that Boccieri would win this race anywhere from 4% (52 to 48) to 10% (55 to 45).

The Schuring campaign got some very bad news yesterday as it has been reported widely in the press that the Ashland-based Archway Cookies has declared bankruptcy and 100 workers stand to loose their jobs and the healthcare benefits that go with them.

Why is this bad new specifically to the Schuring campaign and not to Boccieri?

Two reasons.

First, this bad local economic news happened in Ashland County which up to this election has been a Republican stronghold. It could be that the loss of jobs in the environment of a hotly contested political contest and heightened media coverage will prompt Ashland County voters rethinking their support of Republican politicians. Schuring, rightly or wrongly, as a Republican most likely will suffer from his political association with the Bush/McCain economic policies.

Second, the bankruptcy occurs in the midst of the perfect economic storm (i.e. the current financial crisis that sent the stock market down another 500+ points yesterday). The Report's main reason for picking Boccieri to win over Schuring, is not the campaign that each is running. But the horrible environment for Republicans running this time around. Across the nation, voters are looking to Democrats rather than Republicans for solutions. Local events like the Archway Cookies thing, has to be politically discomforting to Schuring.

Poll numbers are plummeting for the McCain/Palin ticket nationally, in Ohio and most likely within the 16th. These are not good times for Schuring.

The Report notices that the Schuring campaign is running TV ads in the Cleveland market focusing on John Boccieri being an outsider to the 16th. Schuring refers to Boccieri as "Youngstown John." It had to delight Schuring that Congressman Tim Ryan (literally from Youngstown) was at (traveling with Boccieri) and spoke at the Candidates Art Forum. Ryan did not refer to Boccieri. But is this a well-timed association for Boccieri in light of the "Youngstown John" effort by Schuring.

Another question.

With the bad, bad economic news peppering the Schuring campaign, is the turn to the "Youngstown John" theme as sign of desperation engulfing the Schuring campaign?

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Maybe the Stark County Political Report should check their own facts. "Literally", Congressman Tim Ryan is from Niles, Ohio. Not Youngstown. Wrong city. Even the wrong county. Not even close. Better luck next time.

Katie in Medina said...

Thanks for doing all you can to back Boccieri while donning the guise of an independent-minded analyst. We need more bloggers like you.

Martin Olson said...

KATIE IN MEDINA confuses independence with neutrality. The Report does not try to be neutral (although this happens sometime mostly in a negative sense - e.g. Snitchler v. DeHoff Ohio House 50th) but whatever points of view The Report takes on particular races is based on The Report's analysis of the candidates positions/records in various issues which square up with or vary with The Report's take on those issues.

Initially the Boccieri campaign took it for granted (probably because of recent pre-The Report days association with the Stark County Democratic Party) that the STARK COUNTY POLITICAL REPORT would be some sort of conduit for its "talking points." When this proved not to be the case, the Boccieri campaign cut off communication with The Report.

Boccieri himself has telephoned The Report complaining about an article showing Boccieri in a mass of humanity in a play off "Where is the world is Waldo" in a satirical look at the residency issue." Boccieri was not pleased with the satire.

So Katie, The Report does independently arrive at a stance on candidates and issues which is not the same as being neutral. The Report does have a point of view.

AS TO THE ANONYMOUS COMMENTER, The Report has this response.

Niles in no more than 12.7 miles from the Youngstown city limits. A look at a Google maps shows that the Niles city limits borders on Mahonning County (Youngstown's county). So if one goes from the Niles city limits on the county border to Youngstown; it looks like the distance is reduced to 5/6 miles.

The Report is satisfied that most readers would not agree with the anonymous commenter that The Report is "not even close." But thanks for commenting anyway.

GARoach said...

Martin,
Katie isn't even from Medina. She/he is a "Schuring troll" from Logan, Ohio. Talk is cheap about "outsiders"! Get to the issues...

Katie in Medina said...

I just saw this. Actually, just to clarify, I was born and grew up in Medina County, went to Medina High School, did my undergrad over at Walsh, and am now in Columbus at Capital University Law School. Not sure where you got Logan - perhaps that's what my IP address says, I dunno. I'm voting absentee for Medina County and I'm voting for Schuring. Does that somehow disqualify me from commenting in a blog that came up via a blog search? Thanks for calling me a troll. That was quite gentlemanly.

Thank you, Mr. Olson, for your reply, and I apologize if I was rude in my original comment. I don't find anything offensive about Sen. Boccieri, but I find Schuring much more moderate and practical and I'm voting for him.